According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from June 16th to 20th, MTBE prices rose from 5117 yuan/ton to 5175 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.12% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 5.61%, and a year-on-year decrease of 20.23%. The domestic MTBE market is operating steadily, mainly boosted by the significant increase in international crude oil prices. But as MTBE prices rose to a temporary high and transactions cooled down, downstream businesses became more cautious about high prices and only made sporadic purchases for essential needs.
In terms of cost and crude oil, the international oil price has risen significantly, mainly due to the escalation of the war, which has led to a sudden increase in market concerns about potential supply risks. As of June 19th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the August contract was $78.85 per barrel.
On the demand side, international crude oil futures prices have surged, and the price of refined oil products has risen rapidly. At the beginning of the week, the rise in crude oil boosted the seller’s mentality, and refineries took the opportunity to raise their prices to expand their profit margins. In the later stage, the fluctuation of crude oil caused instability in the mentality of oil market operators, and high oil prices suppressed the entry of middle and downstream merchants into the market for procurement. In addition, the current weak terminal demand has led to a slightly average market transaction atmosphere. The MTBE demand side is influenced by favorable factors.
Supply side: The operating rate of the equipment has increased. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.
As of the close on June 19th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by 0.06 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at 712.88-714.88 US dollars/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market has increased by $45.5/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB ARA closing at $850.99-851.49/ton. The MTBE market in the United States is closed.
The future forecast shows that there is still room for international oil prices to rise, and the expectation of a new round of retail price limits has been significantly raised, with good expectations for gasoline. The MTBE analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic MTBE market is mainly characterized by strong fluctuations.