According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of October 31st, the price of 0 # zinc was 22266 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.32% compared to the zinc price of 22196 yuan/ton on October 27th.
This week’s market analysis
The zinc price is showing a strong trend of oscillation, supported by the reduction of overseas inventory and crowding out, while domestic demand is relatively weak.
Raw material end
Currently, domestic production remains at a high level, while the supporting role of raw material costs is becoming increasingly evident. Entering October, the production schedule remains at a high level, with the operating rate of smelters approaching 93.7% and the capacity utilization rate reaching saturation. In this context, the price of domestically produced TC has dropped to 3400 yuan/metal ton, while the price of imported TC has remained stable at 119 US dollars/dry ton. Although smelting profits have been somewhat squeezed due to the increase in raw material costs, the overall profit level is still relatively high.
Supply and demand side
In the current domestic economic environment, the overall consumer market is showing a weak trend, with insufficient growth momentum in domestic demand. Although exports have entered a window period, terminal demand is still weak, and market activity needs to be improved. After the holiday, the market mainly focuses on digesting the accumulated inventory in the early stage, and the pace of industry operation is gradually recovering. In this context, the profit window for zinc ingot exports has timely opened, bringing positive signals to the domestic zinc ingot market, which is expected to effectively alleviate the pressure of oversupply of domestic zinc ingots and promote market supply-demand balance.
Inventory end
The inventory of domestic zinc ingots has decreased.
comprehensive analysis
Recently, the zinc market has shown a short-term strong trend, which is supported by various factors. From the perspective of supply and demand, the current market is in a tight equilibrium state, with limited growth on the supply side and a certain degree of resilience on the demand side, making it difficult to effectively alleviate the supply-demand relationship in the short term. At the same time, the price difference between domestic and foreign zinc is gradually narrowing, which means that the competitiveness of domestic zinc prices in the international market has been enhanced, further stimulating the demand in the domestic market. In addition, the situation of tight inventory is also prominent, and low inventory provides strong support for zinc prices. Taking into account these factors, the zinc market has shown significant structural support in the short term.