According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from October 1st to 31st (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market first increased from 2237 yuan/ton and then fell to 2215 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 3.69% during the period, a maximum amplitude of 7.27%, and a year-on-year decline of 13.28%.
The port methanol market is affected by high supply pressure and overall shows a weak fluctuation trend. By the end of the month, the unloading of foreign ships still fell short of expectations, but the pick-up volume significantly weakened, inventory accumulated narrowly, and the market had a high circulating volume with low downstream purchasing willingness, causing prices to weaken again. The methanol market in mainland China shows a trend of first rising and then falling, with weak supply and demand restricting the willingness to hold goods, and the overall weak situation has not fundamentally changed.
As of the close on October 31st, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2601, opened at 2202 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2219 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2172 yuan/ton. It closed at 2180 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 53 yuan or 2.37% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 826939, the position is 1350958, and the daily increase is 29995.
On the cost side, with the phased improvement of supply and demand structure, the increase in coal prices has put stronger pressure on methanol costs, and the profit of coal to methanol production has been rapidly squeezed. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, there is significant pressure on the demand side, with significant price drops in downstream secondary and tertiary markets in recent times, leading to severe profit losses for most industries and significant constraints on the enthusiasm and actual demand for methanol procurement. The expected reduction in demand in November will be mainly reflected in the MTO industry, which is the core downstream consumer sector of methanol. The impact of its demand contraction on the market is particularly critical. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is biased towards negative factors.
On the supply side, the overall loss of equipment is greater than the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external markets, as of the close on October 30th, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at $323.5-324.5 per ton. The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 88.5-89.5 cents per gallon; The European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 266.5-267.5 euros/ton.
Future forecast: Some methanol maintenance projects will gradually resume, and domestic supply will remain sufficient; Coastal destocking still requires close monitoring of supply side fluctuations. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly consolidate weakly.