1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on March 10th was 970 yuan/ton, which is 1.02% lower than the average price of 980 yuan/ton on March 3rd.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market prices have weakened and fallen. The operating rate of coking enterprises remains stable, and the operating rate of their internal equipment is at a high level. As the price of ammonium sulfate continues to rise, downstream consumers have a resistance to high prices, resulting in a decrease in market transactions and a decline in ammonium sulfate prices. The decline in urea prices this week has a negative impact on ammonium sulfate. As of March 10th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 920 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream factory price in Shandong region is around 955-990 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the recent trend of ammonium sulfate market is weak and downward, and market transactions are weak. At present, downstream demand is in urgent need of support, and demand is weakening. The market is adopting a cautious and wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market prices will continue to decline in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 3rd to 7th, the domestic ethanol price rose from 5300 yuan/ton to 5307 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.14% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 15.92%. The price of edible ethanol in the domestic market is stable with some increase, but the upward trend has slowed down. The price of raw material corn continues to operate strongly, and the production cost of corn ethanol is under pressure. Holders have a strong mentality of supporting prices and a strong focus.

In terms of cost, the price of raw material corn is stable but slightly strong, and the cost side has provided some support for alcohol prices. With the boost of cost benefits, enterprises have a strong mentality of supporting prices. The cost support of ethanol is still acceptable.

On the supply side, the overall spot supply is abundant. There are unlikely to be major favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.

On the demand side, from the demand side, Baijiu consumption support is flat; The operating rates of downstream methyl ethyl carbonate and ethyl acetate do not change significantly, and their consumption of ethanol remains stable; Other downstream chemical industries are accompanied by regular procurement, with a focus on stocking up for essential needs, resulting in limited demand boost. The short-term impact of ethanol demand is expected to break through.

In the future forecast, the overall spot pressure on the supply side of the alcohol market is not high, and the price of raw material corn is fluctuating and consolidating. Cost support still exists, and the mentality of production enterprises has been boosted. The demand side has limited follow-up, with rigid demand transactions being the main focus and spot trading being flat. Business Society’s ethanol analyst predicts that the domestic ethanol market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

This week, the epoxy propane market entered a weak stable consolidation state. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 6th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8037.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.16% compared to the beginning of this month (8100 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors:

Supply side: Lihua Yiweiyuan and Xinyue Group’s epoxy propane product facilities have been restored, with a steady increase in supply and normal market transactions.

On the raw material side: Recently, the price of propylene has risen, and the cost side is supporting epoxy propane. The price of epoxy propane is running steadily. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 6th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6835.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.33% compared to the beginning of this month (6813.25 yuan/ton).

Downstream demand side: The downstream market is observing and following up on purchasing, and the trading atmosphere in the market is improving. New orders are still being transacted.

Market forecast:

Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that the epoxy propane market has entered a weak and stable consolidation state, with supply side support temporarily stored, downstream follow-up procurement, and improved market trading atmosphere. It is predicted that the epoxy propane market price may show a volatile trend in the later stage, and more attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on March 5th, the reference price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market in Shandong was 8750 yuan/ton. Compared with March 1st, the reference price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market was 8925 yuan/ton, the price has decreased by 175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.96%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that this week, the domestic cyclohexanone market in Shandong region showed a weak downward trend. During the week, there was insufficient support within the cyclohexanone market, and the market center continued to move towards a lower level. As of March 5th, the cyclohexanone market price in Shandong region was around 8700-8800 yuan/ton.

Market influencing factors

In terms of supply and demand: Currently, downstream users of cyclohexanone have slow demand, and the overall supply of cyclohexanone in the market is loose. The overall transmission between supply and demand is loose, which provides insufficient market support for cyclohexanone.

In terms of cost: The pure benzene market on the cost side is fluctuating and falling, and the support for cyclohexanone is also insufficient. On March 5th, the reference price of pure benzene was 7434 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.11% compared to March 1st (7518 yuan/ton).

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market is relatively light, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly be weak and stable, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 28th, the average price of acetic acid was 2800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton compared to the price of 2880 yuan/ton on February 24th, a decrease of 2.78%, and a decrease of 5.08% compared to the beginning of the month.

This week, the acetic acid market has been weakly declining, and enterprise quotations have continued to decline. On the supply side, the domestic acetic acid maintenance equipment has been restored, the utilization rate of on-site production capacity has increased, the mentality of enterprises is poor, downstream factory demand is weak, market transactions are insufficient, and enterprise shipments are not smooth. Under the game of supply and demand, acetic acid quotations have fallen.

As of February 28th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:

Region/ February 24th/ February 28th/ rise and fall

South China region/ 3000 yuan/ton// 2950 yuan/ton/ -50

North China region/ 2805 yuan/ton/ 2750 yuan/ton/ -55

Shandong region/ 2830 yuan/ton/ 2750 yuan/ton/ -80

Jiangsu region/ 2850 yuan/ton/ 2730 yuan/ton/ -120

Zhejiang region/ 2975 yuan/ton/ 2950 yuan/ton/ -25

The upstream methanol market is running strongly. From February 24th to 28th, the average price in the domestic market increased from 2618.33 yuan/ton to 2629.17 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 0.41%. During the week, some downstream inquiries were made for external procurement, which boosted the mainland market and led to a strengthening of methanol prices. However, downstream consumers still have some resistance to high prices, which has restrained the increase and caused a slight fluctuation in the overall price.

The downstream acetic anhydride market has experienced a narrow downward adjustment. On February 28th, the average ex factory price of acetic anhydride was 5095 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.29% compared to the price of 5110 yuan/ton on February 24th. The upstream acetic acid market is weak and declining, the cost of acetic anhydride is bearish, and enterprise quotations have been lowered accordingly. The demand side is lukewarm, and the price of acetic anhydride is running weakly this week.

Market forecast: Business Society’s acetic acid analyst believes that the current trading atmosphere in the acetic acid market is weak, downstream market entry enthusiasm is not high, supply side manufacturers face significant sales pressure, and the atmosphere is bearish. It is expected that the acetic acid market will continue to operate weakly in the later stage, and downstream follow-up will be closely monitored in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has declined this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 976 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 936 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.1% and a year-on-year increase of 19.69%. On February 26th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 846 points, an increase of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 39.57% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 41.47% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the caustic soda market has been weak this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 890-980 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is around 950-1050 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is temporarily stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is around 3100-3200 yuan/ton (converted to 100 yuan). This week, the overall price of caustic soda has been weak, with sufficient market supply and accumulated inventory. Downstream production of alumina and alumina has remained basically stable, and demand is stable. We are observing the market situation and expect the caustic soda price to be weak.

Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been weak due to the accumulation of market inventory and average downstream demand. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda will maintain a stable operating market in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province has slightly declined, with an average market price of 16250 yuan/ton at the end of the month and 15800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 2.77%.

This month’s market analysis

This month is the first month after the end of the Spring Festival holiday. Magnesium prices have been stable in the early stages of this month, but have rapidly fallen to a new low in recent years by the end of this month. The decline exceeded expectations, and the market sentiment was pessimistic.

Supply and demand side

At the beginning of this month, new orders for the New Year have been fulfilled one after another, and there is not much stock supply. Due to the slow resumption of work by downstream enterprises and the need to digest inventory from before the year, factory inventory pressure is not high, and cost support is strong. It is expected that quotations will remain firm, and stable operation will be achieved in the first half of the year under weak supply and demand conditions. Moving to the end of this month, due to the lack of a clear rebound in demand, there has been a rapid decline in raw material prices, and magnesium prices have lost their raw material support, resulting in a rapid decline in value.

Due to prices reaching the freezing point of nearly four years, some factories have chosen to shut down for maintenance in advance to reduce losses and adjust production pace, which will significantly reduce the supply of coal and magnesium.

In terms of raw materials

The raw material ferrosilicon market is showing a stalemate and weak stability pattern, with price fluctuations narrowing and the overall market lacking significant breakthroughs. As far as the current situation is concerned, most buyers have low purchasing enthusiasm and a certain degree of price pressure sentiment. Weak market demand has suppressed the overall market situation. In addition, news of a downward adjustment in raw material prices has weakened the support for the bottom of costs. Recently, some confidence in the industry has slightly decreased, and the actual transaction prices have been adjusted. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on February 28th, ferrosilicon (brand: FeSi75～B; The market price for grain size grade/mm: natural blocks in Ningxia is between 5800-6000 yuan/ton, with an average market price of 5954 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.26%.

The price of raw material blue charcoal has fallen again, and some mainstream calcium carbide enterprises downstream have lowered the purchase price of small and medium-sized blue charcoal materials, which has reduced the production enthusiasm of enterprises. As of February 28th, the mainstream prices for small and medium-sized materials in the Shenmu market are 590-750 yuan/ton, and 450-520 yuan/ton for coke surface; The mainstream prices for small and medium-sized materials in the Fugu market are 590-750 yuan/ton, and 440-600 yuan/ton for coke surface; The mainstream price of coke in the Zhongwei market is 550 yuan/ton; Shizuishan market mixed material costs 620 yuan/ton; The price of small and medium-sized materials in the Ordos market is 680-765 yuan/ton, and the price of coke surface is 550-650 yuan/ton; The price of small and medium-sized materials in Hohhot market is 730-750 yuan/ton, and the price of coke surface is 700 yuan/ton; The price of small and medium-sized materials in Hami market is 920-1050 yuan/ton, coke surface is 380-1050 yuan/ton, and mixed materials are 210-315 yuan/ton; The price of small and medium-sized materials in Changji market is 850-1220 yuan/ton, and the price of coke surface is 550 yuan/ton, all of which are ex factory cash prices including tax; The prices of small and medium-sized materials such as blue charcoal in Tianjin Port are 980-1040 yuan/ton, and coke face is 800-880 yuan/ton, both of which are cash inclusive of taxes at the port closing price; The price of Yumen small materials is 280-520 yuan/ton, the price of coke surface is 380-650 yuan/ton, the mainstream price of coke powder is 570 yuan/ton, and the price of rice materials is 410-430 yuan/ton, all of which are cash inclusive of tax at the factory price.

Future forecast

Although the overall recovery pace is slow, downstream enterprises are still resuming work and production one after another. With the progress of resumption of work, demand is expected to show a slight improvement. In this context, the supply side is weakening while the demand side is slightly strengthening, and magnesium prices are expected to rebound due to this impact.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market price of isopropanol fluctuated in February, with prices first falling, then rising, and then falling again. Overall, prices have slightly increased. On February 1st, the average price of isopropanol in China was 6660 yuan/ton, and on February 27th, the average price was 6670 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.15% compared to the beginning of the month.

The market price of isopropanol fluctuated in February, with prices first falling, then rising, and then falling again. In the first ten days, just after the Spring Festival holiday, downstream terminal demand recovered slowly, and the atmosphere of on-site actual trading was average, resulting in a decrease in enterprise prices. In the middle of the month, due to the rise in acetone prices and strong cost support, market prices quickly rose. In the latter half of the year, the upstream acetone market mainly experienced a downturn, with weak cost support and relatively light demand in the end market. Downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high, and transactions were cautious, resulting in a further decline in market prices. As of now, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 6500-6600 yuan/ton; Most of the quotations in the isopropanol market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 6800-6950 yuan/ton based on market reference prices.

In terms of raw material acetone, the domestic acetone market price increased in February. On February 1st, the average price of acetone was 6097.5 yuan/ton, and on February 27th, the average price was 6492.5 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 6.48%. At present, the trading atmosphere in the acetone market is still good, and the mentality of holders is good. It is expected that the acetone market will remain strong in the short term.

In terms of propylene, the domestic propylene market fluctuated and fell in February. On February 1st, the market was average at 6823.25 yuan/ton, and on February 27th, the average price was 6813.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.47% in price. At present, there is no pressure on propylene inventory, and downstream purchases are made as needed. It is expected that propylene prices will experience slight fluctuations and consolidation in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The isopropanol analyst from the Chemical Branch of Shengyi Society believes that the isopropanol market price first fell, then rose, and then fell again in February. At present, the confidence of cargo holders is average, and the demand in the terminal market is relatively light, resulting in a decrease in factory prices. However, due to the firm prices of raw materials and the recovery of downstream terminal procurement intentions, transactions are mainly driven by essential needs. It is expected that in the short term, isopropanol will remain cautious and the market will mainly stabilize and consolidate.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the ex factory price of ethyl acetate in China was 5613.33 yuan/ton on February 25th, a decrease of 0.18% compared to the previous trading day. Cost support has weakened, downstream follow-up is average, supplier mentality is conflicted, and the price of ethyl acetate has been adjusted downward.

Market analysis: Ethyl acetate market is weak and consolidating. On the raw material side, the price of acetic acid is relatively stable, with some regions experiencing local price reductions and insufficient cost support; On the demand side, downstream factories purchase on demand, with limited on-site order volume and a relatively weak overall trading atmosphere; Enterprises are actively shipping, and the focus of market transactions has slightly shifted downwards.

In the future, the trend of ethyl acetate raw materials is generally average, with low cost and profit. The supply side and market capacity utilization rate have been raised, and the sales pressure of enterprises has increased. Downstream demand follows up, and market trading is poor. It is expected that the price of ethyl acetate will remain weak and stable in the short term. Specific attention should be paid to changes in upstream market conditions and downstream follow-up situations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from February 17th to February 24th, the domestic butadiene market price decreased from 12375 yuan/ton to 11587.5 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 6.36% during the period. This week, the butadiene market experienced a wide decline, with increased expectations for equipment restart and supply. The synthetic rubber futures market weakened, and downstream demand was weak, among other negative factors. As a result, the market was under pressure and fell, with holders lowering their quotes and downstream demand not keeping up. As of February 24th, the mainstream delivery price of butadiene in Shandong region is between 11050-11300 yuan/ton, and the self pickup price from the tank in East China region is between 10800-10900 yuan/ton.

Cost aspect: During this cycle, crude oil prices first rose and then fell. As of February 21st, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.40 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $74.43 per barrel. The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have decreased, and the premium of oil prices has fallen; In addition, the increase in US crude oil inventories has affected investor confidence. During this cycle, crude oil prices have fluctuated at a low level. On the one hand, the US has imposed tariffs and Trump has requested OPEC to increase production to lower oil prices. In addition, US crude oil inventories remain high, and there are still concerns in the market about crude oil demand, which has suppressed crude oil prices; On the other hand, the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine has eased, and crude oil market prices remain low.

Supply side: Sinopec’s various sales companies have lowered the listed price of butadiene by 700 yuan/ton and implemented 11700 yuan/ton.

Demand side: Recently (2.11-2.24), the market for butadiene rubber has been weak and slightly declining. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 24th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 14300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.57% from 14830 yuan/ton on the 11th. The price of raw material butadiene has significantly decreased, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has dropped significantly; The production of butadiene rubber remains low, and the pressure on the supply side is relatively small; After the holiday, downstream construction gradually increased, mainly supporting the demand for butadiene rubber. Recently, the supply prices of Shunding rubber suppliers have been gradually lowered, and the quotes from merchants have been weak and declining. As of February 24th, the mainstream quotes for Shunding in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze in East China were 14200-14550 yuan/ton

Market forecast: In terms of the future, the crude oil market trend has been weak recently, with insufficient guidance for the market and weak cost performance. The overall supply has been relatively loose recently, and expectations are weak. In the near future, the demand side will maintain on-demand procurement with a preference for rigid demand. Overall, the market performance is bearish, and it is expected that the market trend will remain weak in the short term.