Market Overview: New production capacity is gradually being released, and the domestic acrylonitrile spot market continues to decline this week. Prices are gradually bottoming out, and the support for manufacturer maintenance is gradually weakening. As of April 25th, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup in East China ports is around 8200-8300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400-500 yuan/ton from last week. Short distance delivery in Shandong market is around 7900-8100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 450-550 yuan/ton from last week.
New production capacity gradually releases, supply increases:
After a period of no new production capacity gap in 2024, the domestic acrylonitrile industry will usher in a new round of concentrated capacity expansion in 2025. Five enterprises will add or expand capacity during the year, with a total of 1.31 million tons/year of new production capacity planned, as shown in the table below.
As of April, 390000 tons of new acrylonitrile production capacity have been successfully put into operation this year. At present, the total production capacity of acrylonitrile in China has reached 4.789 million tons per year, with a year-on-year increase of 8.9%. It is expected that the total production capacity of acrylonitrile will reach 5.709 million tons per year by the end of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 30%.
At present, with the gradual release of new production capacity, the downward trend of acrylonitrile market prices in China is also intensifying, especially in the Shandong market. The oversupply situation in the region is still prominent, and the spot negotiation price has gradually fallen to around 8000 yuan/ton and below. Due to the maintenance of Anqing Petrochemical’s 80000 ton production line and the low load operation of other large factories, the prices in the East China market are still relatively high compared to the Shandong market, but they are also showing a continuous downward trend.
Tariffs affecting domestic demand and shrinking export demand:
In addition to the increase in supply caused by the release of new production capacity, the demand for acrylonitrile has also shown signs of contraction. The imposition of tariffs by China and the United States has affected domestic demand and exports in some downstream areas of acrylonitrile, including ABS terminal home appliances, acrylic terminal textiles, nitrile latex, and glove products, thereby suppressing production, sales, and operating conditions in various industries and weakening the consumption of acrylonitrile. The operating rate of the acrylic fiber industry has dropped to around 50%, and the operating rate of the ABS industry has also dropped to below 70%. Only the operating rate of acrylamide remains at a normal level, but the industry also stated that its demand is lower than the same period in previous years, which may affect the sustainability of operating in the later stage.
The decline may gradually narrow and the price bottom may appear:
Although the May Day holiday is approaching, there is no obvious stocking atmosphere before the holiday. It is expected that the negative feedback on acrylonitrile demand caused by tariff policies and the economic and foreign trade situation will be further highlighted in the future. In addition, the new 400000 ton acrylonitrile plant of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical is also planned to be put into operation in May and June. With the further deepening of the supply-demand contradiction and the worsening of the loss situation in acrylonitrile production, some production enterprises will be forced to stop or reduce production, and the market decline may gradually narrow. Based on the fact that acrylonitrile prices have fallen to historically low levels, it is expected that the bottom of the market price may appear in May, but when the market rebounds or how long it will last at the bottom will still be determined by the degree of supply reduction.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from April 21st to 25th, the average price of BDO in China fell from 7930 yuan/ton to 7907 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.29% during the period, a month on month increase of 0.09%, and a year-on-year decrease of 12.83%. The domestic BDO market is experiencing a narrow decline. The industry’s capacity utilization rate continues to decline, with supply side support and supply side contraction. Downstream maintenance requires immediate follow-up, but resistance to high prices still exists. The supply-demand game continues, and the market is operating in a stalemate.
On the supply side, some devices are still under maintenance, temporary parking, and defect elimination. The capacity utilization rate of the BDO industry has dropped to around 4.4%, and the market supply continues to decrease, with some favorable support from the supply side. At the same time, some devices have released May maintenance news, and the industry is under long-term loss pressure. The suppliers have a strong positive attitude towards supporting the market, which limits the market’s further downward exploration space. The supply of BDO is affected by favorable factors.
On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market remains stable and watchful. Due to power maintenance and cost pressures, the supply in Shaanxi and Wumeng regions has significantly decreased. At the same time, there have been irregular power restrictions in Inner Mongolia, which have increased supply instability and accelerated the consumption of market inventory. The domestic methanol market is weak and volatile. As of 10:00 am on April 25th, the domestic methanol Taicang price was 2420 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol are running weakly, and the cost of BDO is affected by unfavorable factors.
On the demand side, due to the average performance of terminal demand, the overall downstream production has slightly declined, and the cost of the industrial chain is under pressure, resulting in weak ability to accept high prices. This has led to inconsistent implementation of new cycle contract policies and sporadic small orders for spot goods. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
Future forecast: The supply-demand game will continue, and market fluctuations may be limited. Business Society BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market will mainly focus on consolidation and observation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the ex factory price of ethyl acetate in China was 5550.00 yuan/ton on April 23, unchanged from yesterday’s price. The cost support is average, downstream follow-up is needed, the trading atmosphere on the market is still acceptable, and the price of ethyl acetate is running steadily.
Market analysis: Recently, the ethyl acetate market has been weak and stable. On the raw material side, the price of acetic acid has decreased, and the cost support is insufficient; On the demand side, downstream consumption of inventory is the main focus, with a small amount of procurement for essential needs being the main factor. Enterprises ship according to demand, and market trading enthusiasm is not high. The focus of ethyl acetate transactions is running steadily.
In the future, the trend of ethyl acetate raw materials is weak, with a negative impact on costs. On the supply side, the utilization rate of ethyl acetate production capacity has not changed much, and downstream demand is not following up well. It is expected that the price of ethyl acetate will be weak in the short term. Please pay attention to the changes in upstream market conditions and downstream follow-up situation.

1、 Market Overview
This week, the acrylic acid market showed a supply-demand game, and the overall operation remained stable. On the supply side, some manufacturers have adjusted their production plans to cope with changes in market demand; On the demand side, downstream users also exhibit a certain degree of flexibility in their procurement strategies.
As of April 22nd, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 7566.67 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month. Compared to last week, the fluctuation is relatively small. Price fluctuations are mainly influenced by factors such as supply and demand, raw material prices, and market competition.
Market mentality: On the supplier side, some manufacturers are optimistic about the future market due to low inventory pressure; However, some manufacturers are cautious about the future market due to insufficient market demand. In terms of downstream users, procurement strategies exhibit a certain degree of flexibility due to factors such as procurement costs and market competition.
2、 Supply side:
This week, the prices of the main raw materials for acrylic acid have remained relatively stable with minimal fluctuations. As of April 22, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6728.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.26% compared to the beginning of this month (6745.75 yuan/ton)., The impact on the production cost of acrylic acid is limited.
3、 Demand side
Downstream demand: The overall downstream demand for acrylic acid remained stable this week, with some areas such as coatings and SAP industries showing certain growth potential. The paint industry has seen an increase in procurement volume due to the rebound of real estate completion; The SAP industry has experienced a decline in order volume due to the off-season demand for diapers.
Export situation: The export volume of acrylic acid remained stable this week, and some producers are expanding overseas markets to digest domestic overcapacity. In terms of export prices, affected by international market competition, the export price of acrylic acid has slightly decreased this week, but it still remains at a reasonable level.
4、 Future prospects
Looking ahead, the acrylic acid market will still face challenges from the supply-demand game. On the supply side, manufacturers need to continue optimizing production plans, reducing costs, and improving product quality; On the demand side, downstream users need to actively explore the market and increase product added value. Therefore, market participants need to closely monitor market dynamics and policy changes in order to develop more scientific and reasonable market strategies.
In summary, the acrylic acid market has maintained stable operation this week under the game of supply and demand. The future market will still face many challenges and uncertainties, requiring market participants to respond flexibly.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of baking soda at the beginning of the week was 1410 yuan/ton, and the average market price of baking soda at the end of the week was 1342 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.82% in price and a decrease of 41.27% compared to the same period last year. On April 17th, the Business Society Baking Soda Index was 89.07, a decrease of 1.46 points from yesterday, a decrease of 62.23% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (2021-11-10), and an increase of 0.91% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running weakly, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is running weakly, with a factory price of 1350-1450 yuan/ton in Henan region and 1400-1600 yuan/ton in Shandong region. Due to downstream demand driven procurement, it is expected that weak operations will be the main focus in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has remained stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week is 1400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26.32% compared to the same period last year. Downstream buyers tend to purchase on demand.
Business Society analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been weak in recent times, while the upstream raw material soda ash has been generally operating. Downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have been purchasing on demand, with average demand enthusiasm. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for locally refined petroleum coke has slightly declined this week. As of April 18th, the price of locally refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 2367.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.35% from 2400.00 yuan/ton on April 14th.
The trend of crude oil prices has risen this week, and the US sanctions against Iran continue. Some oil producing countries have submitted compensation plans for overproduction, coupled with the weakening of the US dollar, international oil prices have risen.
This week, the shipment of petroleum coke from local refineries was average, and downstream purchases were mainly for essential needs. Market entry was cautious, and refinery shipments were hindered, resulting in an overall decline in petroleum coke prices. This week, the shipment of petroleum coke from the port was average, mainly consisting of medium and high sulfur petroleum coke. Traders were actively shipping, while downstream enterprises maintained their demand for essential purchases.

This week, the calcined coke market remained stable, with overall supply being sufficient. Coupled with limited downstream demand, the calcined coke market has fallen slightly.

Market forecast: Currently, the trading of petroleum coke market is average, downstream procurement of petroleum coke is cautious, refinery shipments are hindered, and support for the petroleum coke market is limited. It is expected that petroleum coke will mainly consolidate weakly in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on April 17th, the reference market price of cyclohexanone in Shandong Province, China was 7812 yuan/ton, a decrease of 114 yuan/ton compared to April 13th (reference market price of cyclohexanone was 7926 yuan/ton).
From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that this week (4.13-4.17), the domestic cyclohexanone market in Shandong Province showed an overall downward trend. During the week, the focus of the cyclohexanone market in Shandong continued to shift downwards, with a decrease of about 100-200 yuan/ton. As of April 17th, the cyclohexanone market price in Shandong was around 7800-8000 yuan/ton.
Market influencing factors
In terms of supply and demand: Currently, the overall positive support for the cyclohexanone market is insufficient. In terms of demand, downstream demand for cyclohexanone has performed poorly, with cautious new order transactions and hindered demand transmission. On the supply side, due to the drag of demand, the overall market supply is under pressure, and cyclohexanone factories and suppliers are offering discounts for shipments, revealing the contradiction between supply and demand on site.
In terms of cost: Recently, the raw material pure benzene market has fluctuated in the low range, providing loose cost support for cyclohexanone. As of April 16th, the reference price of pure benzene was 6405.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.82% compared to April 1st (6659.67 yuan/ton).
Market analysis in the future
At present, the overall inquiry atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market in Shandong is relatively light, with cautious follow-up of downstream new orders and limited confidence among industry players. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market in Shandong will mainly be weak and stable, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic adipic acid market continued to decline in the first half of April. On April 1st, the average price of adipic acid in the domestic market was 7766 yuan/ton. On April 16th, the average price of adipic acid in the domestic market was 7400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.72% in price.
Negative leads to a decline in the adipic acid market
In the first half of April, the price of pure benzene, a raw material for adipic acid, fluctuated upwards, while the market for cyclohexanone raw material fell weakly. The demand in the terminal industry was sluggish, and the operating rate of adipic acid market manufacturers was high. Supply pressure continued, and shipping prices fell weakly. Market transactions were average, and sales were flat. The average market price of adipic acid has dropped to 7300-7400 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of about 200-300 yuan/ton.
An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in April, terminal demand may improve, supply pressure may decrease, and the domestic adipic acid market may see an increase.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from April 7th to 11th, the average price of BDO in China fell from 7958 yuan/ton to 7930 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.36% during the period, a month on month drop of 0.43%, and a year-on-year drop of 12.86%. The domestic BDO market is experiencing weak consolidation. The restart and maintenance of the equipment are still ongoing, but the industry’s capacity utilization rate remains low, and the supplier’s market stability mentality continues. The overall downstream production has increased, but under cost pressure, it has entered the market for bargaining. The supply-demand game continues.
There are many fluctuations in the supply and installation aspects: the industry’s capacity utilization rate has slightly increased, but the transportation in Xinjiang is relatively slow, and there are certain favorable factors on the supply side. And the industry has been in a long-term loss making state, with a focus on maintaining market stability among suppliers. The supply of BDO is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of cost, raw material calcium carbide: production enterprises have increased their production compared to the previous period, and their enthusiasm for shipment has improved. At present, the overall price of downstream receiving goods is stable. The domestic calcium carbide market is stable with small fluctuations. The domestic methanol market has fluctuated and adjusted. As of 3:00 pm on April 11th, the domestic methanol Taicang price was 2486 yuan/ton. The price adjustment and operation of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol have a mixed impact on the cost of BDO.
On the demand side, downstream PTMEG and PBT production has increased, and the load of PU slurry has slightly decreased. There is no significant change in other downstream loads, and the overall performance of the demand side is still acceptable. However, the follow-up of terminal demand is poor, and the downstream market in many industries is declining, resulting in increased cost pressures. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
Future forecast: The industry will suffer long-term losses, and the supply side will continue to maintain a stable market mentality. The overall downstream demand is still acceptable, but some industries are experiencing a downturn and increasing cost pressures, which may still lower the prices of raw materials. Business Society BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market will fluctuate within a certain range.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market fell first and then rose this week, showing an overall weak trend. As of April 11th, the average market price of domestic polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm) was 6333 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.92% from the beginning of the week.
The collapse of cost support and the escalation of trade frictions have led to a significant drop in crude oil prices. However, with Trump temporarily suspending tariffs on some countries, market panic has eased and crude oil prices have rebounded from oversold levels. As of April 10th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $60.07 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $63.33 per barrel. The market sentiment is cautious, and oil prices may fluctuate significantly in the short term.
The domestic load of PX has dropped to around 74%, and multiple units are undergoing load reduction or maintenance. The basic structure of supply and demand is still acceptable. There are still too many follow-up maintenance plans for PTA, and some domestic facilities have maintenance plans from April to June, which has reduced the supply pressure. However, the escalation of US tariff policies may trigger concerns about a global economic slowdown, and PTA has followed the weakening of crude oil. As of April 11th, the average market price in East China was 4338 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.14% from the beginning of the week.
The downstream market has shown cautious performance, with light market transactions and low enthusiasm for raw material stocking under the collapse of costs. Many essential purchases are made and used as needed. In the terminal weaving industry, especially in terms of foreign trade orders, inquiries have basically stagnated, and the market is in a wait-and-see state in many places. Actual orders are issued sporadically, and there is no significant boost in domestic and foreign trade in the short term. The operating rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has slightly declined to below 65%.
Business analysts believe that tariff news dominates market sentiment, with insufficient cost support and expectations of weak demand due to trade frictions. Therefore, in the short term, the polyester staple fiber market will mainly adjust weakly.