1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 20th, the reference average price of domestic urea market was 1834 yuan/ton, which is 2.12% higher than the reference average price of 1796 yuan/ton on June 13th.
2、 Market analysis
market conditions
The domestic urea market continued to rise this week, but prices fell on Friday. This week, the urea futures market surged, boosting the urea spot market. As of June 20th, the urea market prices in Shandong are around 1780-1850 yuan/ton, Hebei is around 1790-1830 yuan/ton, Henan is around 1770-1840 yuan/ton, Hubei is around 1830 yuan/ton, and Liaoning is around 1910 yuan/ton.
Supply and demand situation
This week, the domestic urea market is experiencing oversupply. In terms of supply, some companies have undergone equipment maintenance this week, but the urea market supply is still abundant and inventory remains high. In terms of demand, downstream essential procurement is the main focus. This week, the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises has decreased, resulting in a decrease in demand for urea. The demand for agriculture in the north is gradually releasing and increasing.
3、 Future forecast
The urea analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic urea market has been on the rise and then falling back recently. At present, the urea market is oversupplied, and market demand needs to be further released. After the continuous rise of urea, market sentiment has cooled down, and it is expected that the short-term domestic urea price will be mainly weak and stable.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from June 16th to 20th, MTBE prices rose from 5117 yuan/ton to 5175 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.12% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 5.61%, and a year-on-year decrease of 20.23%. The domestic MTBE market is operating steadily, mainly boosted by the significant increase in international crude oil prices. But as MTBE prices rose to a temporary high and transactions cooled down, downstream businesses became more cautious about high prices and only made sporadic purchases for essential needs.
In terms of cost and crude oil, the international oil price has risen significantly, mainly due to the escalation of the war, which has led to a sudden increase in market concerns about potential supply risks. As of June 19th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the August contract was $78.85 per barrel.
On the demand side, international crude oil futures prices have surged, and the price of refined oil products has risen rapidly. At the beginning of the week, the rise in crude oil boosted the seller’s mentality, and refineries took the opportunity to raise their prices to expand their profit margins. In the later stage, the fluctuation of crude oil caused instability in the mentality of oil market operators, and high oil prices suppressed the entry of middle and downstream merchants into the market for procurement. In addition, the current weak terminal demand has led to a slightly average market transaction atmosphere. The MTBE demand side is influenced by favorable factors.
Supply side: The operating rate of the equipment has increased. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.
As of the close on June 19th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by 0.06 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at 712.88-714.88 US dollars/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market has increased by $45.5/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB ARA closing at $850.99-851.49/ton. The MTBE market in the United States is closed.
The future forecast shows that there is still room for international oil prices to rise, and the expectation of a new round of retail price limits has been significantly raised, with good expectations for gasoline. The MTBE analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic MTBE market is mainly characterized by strong fluctuations.

Price Trend (6.11-6.18)
Stable at the beginning of the week, with a slight decline later on. On site trading is average, and under the game of supply and demand, inventory accumulates. Some companies have slightly reduced prices to reduce inventory. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of June 18th, the average price of dichloromethane water in Shandong Province was 2150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.15% during the week and 8.32% year-on-year.
analysis of influencing factors
Supply side: Loose, some companies reduce their burden
Device dynamics: The industry as a whole is operating at around 80% capacity, with relatively stable supply. Currently, some enterprises are maintaining a load reduction operation.
Inventory pressure is evident: some manufacturers have accumulated inventory, and their willingness to reduce prices to reduce inventory is increasing.
Cost side: Methanol surges, liquid chlorine weakens
Methanol: The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has escalated, and there are reports that most of Iran’s methanol plants have been shut down, which may have a significant impact on the arrival of goods at ports in the later stage. Methanol prices have risen strongly, and as of June 18th, the spot price of methanol on Shengyi Society was reported at 2674 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.71% for the week. Cost support has been strengthened, but weak demand has limited price transmission.
Liquid chlorine: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has slightly fallen, partially offsetting the impact of methanol’s rise.
Demand side: primary demand, refrigerant or storage support
Dichloromethane, as an important organic solvent and chemical raw material, is widely used in the fields of refrigerants, pharmaceuticals, coatings, adhesives, electronic cleaning, etc., and is mainly purchased for essential needs. June is usually the traditional off-season for the chemical industry, and some downstream enterprises may experience weak demand due to high temperatures, rainy seasons, or reduced operating rates during environmental inspections. Due to the rainy weather in some regions (such as East China and South China), the demand for industries such as construction and coatings may slow down.
The consumption market structure of refrigerant R32 is 40% export+40% household air conditioning production+20% industrial, commercial, and agricultural refrigeration+household, industrial, commercial, and agricultural heating+maintenance market. The third quarter is the relatively peak season for maintenance+export market, and it is expected to maintain a good upward trend. In the next six months, demand will increase significantly, and refrigeration companies will apply to increase R32 production quotas in August, which may boost demand for dichloromethane.
Future prospects
The supply-demand game continues, and the contradiction between cost and demand is prominent, resulting in short-term fluctuations and consolidation of dichloromethane. If inventory pressure increases, prices may continue to decline slightly; If methanol continues to rise, companies may raise prices.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, in early June, the overall hydrogen peroxide market rebounded and prices rose. On June 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 696 yuan/ton. On June 17th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide will be 703 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.96%.
Liduo leads the improvement of the hydrogen peroxide market
Since June, the demand for terminal printing and papermaking industries has increased, and some manufacturers of hydrogen peroxide have stopped for maintenance. Supply remains tight, supported by positive factors. The hydrogen peroxide market has gradually risen, with the average price in the domestic market rising to around 700 yuan/ton and the price increasing by about 20 yuan/ton. The market transactions are still acceptable, and the market is heating up.
The hydrogen peroxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that by the end of June, the demand for terminal printing and papermaking industry was average, and the pressure on hydrogen peroxide supply remained. The upward trend in the future market is still under pressure.

1、 Price trend
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been running weakly this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 885 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 883 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.23% and an increase of 11.21% compared to last year. On June 12th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 782 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 44.14% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 30.77% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been running weakly this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 830-930 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is around 930-980 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is around 2800-2900 yuan/ton (converted to 100%). During the week, the liquid alkali market in Shandong remained stable with small fluctuations, and there were no significant fluctuations in the supply side of the Shandong region. Alumina was mostly purchased on demand, and non aluminum deliveries were noticeably cautious. The main downstream purchasing prices were lowered, and there was no positive support for caustic soda prices.
Business Society analysts believe that the recent weak operation of caustic soda prices is supported by moderate downstream demand in China, which supports the consolidation of caustic soda prices. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda will maintain a consolidation operation in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

Analysis: This week (6.9-13), the liquid ammonia market in Shandong was sluggish, with prices fluctuating and falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the main production area of Shandong experienced a weekly decline of 0.97%. The main reason is obvious supply pressure and excessive market inventory. Recently, with the resumption of maintenance equipment, the supply side has shown loose performance. Coupled with the increase in urea to ammonia conversion by manufacturers, the supply has significantly increased, and the rise in ammonia volume has dragged down ammonia prices. From the beginning of the week to the middle of the week, prices remained firm, but as the weekend approached, companies were affected by inventory pressure and began to lower prices. Mainstream large factories in Shandong generally lowered their prices by 50-100 yuan/ton. Distributors mainly underreport shipments. And downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, agricultural demand is still in the off-season, industrial demand remains rigid, and the overall demand side is bearish. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is 2300-2400 yuan/ton.
Prediction: In the recent off-season of the agricultural demand market, industrial demand has followed suit, and the supply is sufficient. However, the supply pressure may partially ease in the later stage. On the one hand, as prices hover at low levels or supply is tightened in the main production areas of the north, there will be an increase in enterprise inspections and price hikes. From the demand side perspective, downstream procurement may continue to be sluggish, maintaining reasonable procurement demand. There is limited room for order growth in the later stage, and industrial demand urgently needs to be followed up. Taking all factors into consideration, the performance of liquid ammonia may still be weak next week, and it cannot be ruled out that it may continue to decline.

This week, the epoxy chloropropane market continued its downward trend. According to the monitoring and analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of June 12th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 9300.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -4.12% compared to the beginning of this month (9700.00 yuan/ton).
Price influencing factors:
On the raw material side, the external price of glycerol remains high and strong, while domestic demand is weak, resulting in a slight decrease in its focus. However, the cost of glycerol based epichlorohydrin is still under high pressure. The market price of raw material propylene has slightly decreased, and the cost support is still insufficient. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of June 12th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6513.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.38% compared to the beginning of this month (6538.25 yuan/ton).
Supply side: The average production capacity utilization rate of propylene based epichlorohydrin is 90% or above, and production is currently active; Due to the significant losses incurred by the company, the capacity utilization rate of glycerol method is only around 40%. Overall, the supply of epichlorohydrin is relatively sufficient.
Downstream demand side: The demand for epoxy resin in the downstream market has weakened, with sluggish actual order transactions and a capacity utilization rate of over 50%. Overall, downstream demand is average, and the market has a strong wait-and-see attitude.
Market forecast: Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the cost side support is insufficient, downstream demand is weak, the purchasing mentality is not positive, and the actual trading atmosphere in the market is cold. It is expected that the market for epichlorohydrin in the short term will maintain a stable to weak trend, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in raw material prices and market supply and demand.

price trend
Fall after the festival: After the Dragon Boat Festival, the enthusiasm of Shandong market downstream and traders to receive orders slowed down. Although some devices were reduced in load and overhauled, the market supply performance was loose, and the shipment of holders dominated. Yesterday, dichloromethane fell to the low point within the week, down 7.78%, down 12.68% year on year.
Low rebound: With the weakening of prices, the demand for replenishment at low prices in the market has increased, and trading activity has increased. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of June 11th, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong Province was 2175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.05% during the week and a year-on-year decrease of 7.45%.
analysis of influencing factors
Supply side: Local enterprises have lowered negative loads to stabilize prices, while overall supply remains relatively loose
Device dynamics: The overall production of the industry has rebounded to around 80%, and the supply is relatively stable. Currently, some enterprises are reducing negative loads to stabilize prices.
Inventory pressure: Some manufacturers have accumulated inventory and mainly rely on destocking after the holiday, resulting in price pressure.
Cost side: Methanol rebounds, liquid chlorine oscillates upwards
Methanol: The supply is relatively loose. Currently, there is an increase in domestic production and a reduction in imports of methanol. Although port inventory has accumulated, shipments are still acceptable. Methanol prices have bottomed out and rebounded. As of June 11th, the spot price of methanol in Shengyi Society was reported at 2360 yuan/ton, with a 4.89% increase for the week. It is expected that the import arrivals at the port will gradually increase, and the accumulation of inventory will continue.
Liquid chlorine: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has fluctuated and rebounded, providing some support for the cost of dichloromethane.
Demand side: Dichloromethane, as an important organic solvent and chemical raw material, is widely used in the fields of refrigerants, pharmaceuticals, coatings, adhesives, electronic cleaning, etc. It is often purchased at low prices and in high demand.
Refrigerants are still in the peak demand season, and prices continue to show a stable but rising trend. R32 (mainly used for household and commercial air conditioning), currently has a domestic average price of over 50000 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of 42%. However, enterprises mostly produce their own raw material dichloromethane, with a relatively small proportion of external purchases. Due to quota restrictions, the industry’s incremental space is limited, and support for dichloromethane is weak.
The coatings and adhesives industry is experiencing a seasonal recovery, with June entering the peak season for construction and decoration. Demand has improved month on month, but due to environmental policies, some companies are turning to low VOC solvents.
The electronic cleaning industry benefits from the stocking of new energy vehicles, energy storage, and consumer electronics, with a steady growth in demand for high-purity DCM.
The pharmaceutical industry requires stability, but some companies are exploring alternative solutions under high environmental standards.
Future prospects
The game between cost support and loose supply, short-term fluctuations in dichloromethane consolidation, if industries such as coatings and electronics continue to replenish inventory, prices may rebound slightly; If the downstream wait-and-see sentiment intensifies, it is not ruled out that another bottoming out may occur.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from June 2nd to 6th, MTBE prices fell from 5042 yuan/ton to 4937 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 2.08% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 1.54%, and a year-on-year decrease of 25.61%. The domestic MTBE market first rose and then fell. The market was relatively strong in the early part of the week, mainly due to the support of crude oil and gasoline ship orders, so manufacturers increased prices and volume. However, as prices rose to a relatively high point, many manufacturers released their production plans, and the expected increase in resource supply without substantial positive support from the demand side, the MTBE market fluctuated downward.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: The rise in international oil prices is mainly due to the continued signs of geopolitical tension, leading to potential supply risks. The Canadian wildfires have reduced crude oil production, and the traditional peak season in the United States has released positive news, providing support for oil prices. As of June 5th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the August contract was $65.34 per barrel.
On the demand side, in terms of gasoline terminal demand, the slight weakness in gasoline terminal demand has led to slow digestion of inventory by social units, and the intention of large orders from mid to downstream merchants is weak. Business operators tend to purchase relevant gasoline components on demand. The MTBE demand side is affected by bearish factors.
Supply side: Many manufacturers have released their start-up plans. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.
As of the close on June 5th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $9.84/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at $668.32-670.32/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market has increased by $10/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB ARA closing at $756.74-757.24/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $10.24/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $674.64-674.99/ton (190.49-190.59 cents/gallon).
Short term MTBE production is expected to increase and the overall supply side is expected to grow. Cost pressure still exists, supporting the bottom price of MTBE. There is some favorable support on the export side. The MTBE analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic MTBE market is mainly volatile.

In early June, the domestic ABS market remained stable with some decline, and the spot prices of most grades showed narrow fluctuations. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 9th, the average price of ABS sample products was 10562.50 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -0.59% compared to early June.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: In early June, the load of the domestic ABS industry remained generally stable, with the overall load level rising narrowly from 61% at the beginning of the month to the current 64%. The average weekly output is close to 120000 tons, and the inventory level of aggregation enterprises has significantly increased, with sufficient supply on site. At the same time, the recent release of new equipment capacity by two companies has had a suppressive impact on the supply side support of the industry, and the long-term loose supply pattern of the ABS market remains unchanged. Overall, the supply side has poor support for ABS spot prices.
Cost factor: In early June, the trend of ABS upstream three materials was relatively soft, providing average support for ABS cost side. In terms of acrylonitrile, the capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries in China has not changed much, and the overall market supply is abundant, but there is a shortage of purchasing gas. The planned production of facilities such as Zhenhai Refining and Chemical has suppressed market sentiment. There is a stage demand in some parts of southern China, which to some extent delays the market downturn.

In the early stage, there were unplanned maintenance of some domestic butadiene units, coupled with tight port supply, which led to tight supply in the butadiene market and strengthened the atmosphere of the spot market. After the price rose to a high level at the end of May, the trading atmosphere in the market began to fade. Entering June, downstream demand for synthetic rubber was weak in the latter half of the year, and port sources in East China accumulated, resulting in continued loose supply and weak consolidation of butadiene prices.
Recently, the domestic price of styrene has mainly declined. In terms of cost, crude oil fluctuates within the range, pure benzene is weakly consolidated, and the raw material side lacks support for styrene. In terms of supply and demand, the recent profit of styrene is still acceptable, and some units have plans to restart in advance. The downstream demand side remains stable with limited increment. Overall, the supply and demand side is expected to weaken. Under the bearish fundamentals, it is expected that the styrene market will operate weakly in the short term.
On the demand side: As we enter June, the load of downstream ABS factories in the ABS terminal has generally flattened, and the purchasing logic tends to focus on buying at the bottom and supplementing orders for urgent needs, resulting in a lack of new orders and slow flow of goods. The current market is gradually entering the traditional off-season, with reduced liquidity of goods sources and high inventory levels, resulting in continued loose supply and ample room for on-site turnover. Overall, the demand side showed weak support for the ABS market in June.
Future forecast
In early June, the domestic ABS market was consolidating and weak. The prices of upstream three materials are weak, the production load of ABS polymerization plants has slightly increased, and the comprehensive support on the cost and demand sides has weakened. Business analysts believe that the industry’s strong supply and weak demand pattern has dragged down spot prices for a long time, coupled with the off-season of consumption, and industry players have returned to a cautious attitude. Under the dual pressure of cost and demand, it is expected that the ABS market will continue to consolidate weakly in the short term.