On May 14th, the market price of epichlorohydrin increased. According to the monitoring and analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of May 14th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 9100 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.11% compared to early May.
Price influencing factors:
Raw material side: Recently, the raw material propylene market has rebounded, providing sufficient support for the epichlorohydrin market. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of May 13th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6688.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.79% compared to the beginning of this month (6570.75 yuan/ton).
Device situation: Some devices are operating with increased load. In addition, some devices are parked for a long time. At present, the overall operating rate of the industry is 50-60%. Overall, the supply of epichlorohydrin in the market is tight, and prices are showing an upward trend.
Downstream demand side: The downstream epoxy resin market supply remains normal, with a capacity utilization rate of over 50%. But the terminal demand is weak, trading is not smooth, and the main focus is on purchasing for essential needs. Overall, downstream demand is average, and the market has a strong wait-and-see attitude.
Market forecast: Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the raw material propylene market price will rise, and the supply of epoxy chloropropane in the market will be tight. However, downstream demand is weak, and the purchasing mentality is not positive. It is expected that the epoxy chloropropane market will maintain a stable to strong trend in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in raw material prices and market supply and demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate has been falling again and again recently. As of May 13th, the benchmark price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate was 65633 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.79% from 68933 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 16.71% from 78800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 43.52% from the same period last year; The benchmark price of domestic industrial grade lithium carbonate is 64900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.42% from 67900 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 15% from 76400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 40.57% from the same period last year.
supply end
The production of lithium carbonate has slightly increased recently, and companies have maintained high power output. Some companies that stopped production for maintenance in April are expected to resume production in May. As the weather warms up, the production of salt lakes is expected to increase, and the pressure on the supply side is expected to continue to expand.
demand side
Downstream pre holiday restocking is sufficient, but post holiday demand is sluggish, with more on-demand restocking and no explosive demand growth in the short term. The combined price drop has caused some lithium salt factories to experience absorption sentiment, and it is expected that lithium carbonate prices will be under significant pressure in the short term.
Cost end
The price of lithium ore continues to be low, with the CIF price of Australian ore dropping from $850/ton at the beginning of the year to $786/ton, and the price of African ore dropping to $757/ton. The negative cost side has driven down the price of lithium carbonate.
The data analyst of Shengyi Society believes that under the influence of various negative factors, lithium carbonate is prone to decline but difficult to rise, and specific changes in market information still need to be monitored.

According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of formic acid has continued to decline recently. As of May 12th, the benchmark price of 85% industrial grade formic acid in China was 2800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.58% from 3166 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and a decrease of 5.08% from 2950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, which is the lowest level of the year.
During the May Day holiday, shipments were obstructed
During the May Day holiday, enterprise shipments were hindered, downstream purchases were limited, inventory accumulated, and manufacturers and distributors had a strong desire to clear inventory after the holiday, resulting in a decline in prices.
Tariff policies lead to downstream wait-and-see
Although China’s formic acid exports are mainly from Southeast Asia, the tariff adjustment this time has affected downstream shipments, and the downstream wait-and-see atmosphere is dominant. There is currently no large demand for stocking up.
The formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current formic acid inventory and downstream purchasing intention are weak, and it is expected that formic acid will continue to operate weakly in the short term. Specific market changes need to be monitored.

This week, the price of polyester bottle flakes (PET) showed a trend of first stabilizing and then slightly rebounding. From May 7th to May 9th, with the boost of raw materials, the price of PET bottle flakes rose. As of May 9th, the average sales price of PET (PET bottle flakes) was 5865 yuan/ton.
On the cost side, the main raw materials for polyester bottle flakes are PTA and ethylene glycol, and their prices are greatly affected by crude oil. From May 1st to May 6th, the decline in crude oil prices dragged down raw material prices, leading to a decrease in quotes from polyester bottle factories and a shift in market focus. From May 7th to May 9th, raw material prices increased, and the cost support for polyester bottle chips strengthened, leading to a corresponding rise in market prices.
On the supply side, multiple sets of bottle maintenance devices were restarted in mid to late April, resulting in an increase in bottle production and supply. However, the concentrated downstream procurement of bottle chips in the early stage led to a decrease in inventory in bottle chip factories, which to some extent alleviated the supply pressure.
On the demand side, the processing fees for bottle chips have been continuously compressed recently, resulting in a low valuation of bottle chips. The supply-demand contradiction is not significant, and prices mainly follow the trend of the raw material side. As temperatures rise, the peak season for soft drink consumption is approaching, and downstream beverage factories usually stock up 2-3 months in advance. The demand for polyester bottle chips is expected to increase in the second quarter, which will provide some support for prices.
In response to the current market situation, Shengyi Society believes that the PET market for polyester bottle chips still has support in the short term, but downstream follow-up is not as expected. In the short term, PET market prices may fluctuate and adjust, and the PET market will mainly fluctuate with the raw material side. The actual trend still needs to pay attention to the follow-up equipment, demand situation, and cost support under the traction of crude oil.

According to the price monitoring system of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate continued to decline after the holiday. As of May 8th, the benchmark price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in China was 66900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.47% from 67900 yuan/ton before the holiday and a decrease of 38.28% from 108400 yuan/ton in the same period last year; The benchmark price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate is 67733 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.74% from 68933 yuan/ton before the holiday and a decrease of 41.31% from 115400 yuan/ton in the same period last year.
Upstream cost reduction
The peak season for summer production in salt lakes has arrived, with full production capacity and cost advantages. As a result, market prices continue to decline, and low lithium prices have forced mines to upgrade and reduce costs. The recovery rate of spodumene concentrate has increased, and processing costs have decreased. The trade war has led to a decrease in trade volume between China and the United States, with an expected surplus of transportation capacity and a decrease in logistics costs for African lithium mines returning home.
Expected positive social inventory
Although lithium carbonate has been in the stage of accumulating inventory since the end of the year, the current price of lithium carbonate continues to decline, and there has been a reduction in production at the smelting end. The surplus has improved, and there will be annual maintenance of smelting plants in May and June, which is expected to affect the total production of lithium carbonate by more than 1000 tons. Social inventory is expected to be depleted.
The demand side is affected by trade conflicts, and the expectation is not optimistic
The high demand for power batteries at the end of the year is mainly due to policies such as trade in and the rebound in car purchase demand brought about by the decline in prices of new energy vehicles. However, the high growth rate since the second quarter of this year is difficult to sustain.
The mutual imposition of tariffs between China and the United States has impacted the domestic market and supply chain of new energy vehicles in the United States, which may result in damage to the orders of ternary positive electrode factories with a high proportion of domestic and foreign exports. Exporting to the United States is also facing massive tariffs, and there are signs of weakening in energy storage orders.
The data analyst of Shengyi Society believes that the demand for lithium carbonate is flat, and some smelters have new maintenance plans, but external procurement may increase. Lithium carbonate lacks upward momentum, and the downward cost support weakens. It is expected that the price will further decline.

This week, the acrylic acid market showed a supply-demand game, and the overall operation remained stable. On the supply side, some manufacturers have adjusted their production plans to cope with changes in market demand; On the demand side, downstream users also exhibit a certain degree of flexibility in their procurement strategies. As of May 7th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 7500.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.44% compared to the beginning of this month (7533.33 yuan/ton).
supply end
Capacity release and maintenance coexist: Some newly added production capacity in China (such as Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II) is gradually being released, but some enterprises have maintained operating rates of 70% to 80% due to equipment maintenance or environmental restrictions, and the overall supply has not shown significant growth.
demand side
Weakness in the construction sector: The sluggish real estate industry has led to weak demand for coatings and mortar additives.
Packaging and textile stability maintenance: The demand for packaging adhesives and hygiene materials (such as high water absorbent resins for diapers) is stable, supporting the rigid demand for acrylic acid.
Export increment: The recovery of manufacturing industries in Southeast Asia and other regions has driven an increase in export orders, with some enterprises increasing their export share to 20% -30%.
Prudent procurement strategy: Downstream enterprises mainly purchase on demand, with low willingness to hoard goods, and market transactions mainly consist of small and medium-sized orders.
Fluctuations in raw material prices: The price of propylene is affected by the high volatility of crude oil (such as Brent crude oil in the $8085/barrel range), and the cost support of acrylic acid is strong. The profit margin of enterprises is about 500800 yuan/ton, and there is no significant price reduction motivation. As of May 7th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6685.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.75% compared to the beginning of this month (6570.75 yuan/ton).
Prediction of future trends
Short term (1-3 months): Under weak supply-demand balance, the price of acrylic acid may continue to fluctuate narrowly, with an expected fluctuation range of 200500 yuan/ton.
In summary, the stable operation of the current acrylic acid market is the result of the combined effects of supply side quantity control, demand side rigid demand support, and high cost. Despite the lack of unilateral upward momentum, the downward space is also limited, and in the short term, the market may maintain a stalemate of “top and bottom”. It is recommended that participants in the industry chain closely monitor the pace of capacity release, fluctuations in crude oil prices, and downstream inventory replenishment behavior to avoid potential risks.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic maleic anhydride market remained stable at the end of the month, with a slight overall increase. As of April 30th, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 6925 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.36% from 6900 yuan/ton on April 27th.

Supply side: At the end of the month, the price of maleic anhydride factory remained stable; At present, Wanhua in Yantai is parked, Hengli Petrochemical has a low load, and Qingdao Refining has not officially sold out; Downstream unsaturated resin manufacturers of maleic anhydride mainly digest the initial inventory. As of April 30th, the factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6700 yuan/ton, and the factory price of liquid anhydride is around 6400 yuan/ton.

Upstream: At the end of the month, the overall price of n-butane fell, and as of April 30th, the price in Shandong was around 5050 yuan/ton.

Downstream: Currently, the price of unsaturated resin remains stable, and there are plans to shut down some unsaturated resin plants during the May Day holiday, resulting in a relatively reduced supply. Unsaturated resin is urgently needed for downstream procurement, which has limited support for unsaturated resin and a strong market wait-and-see sentiment.
Business Society’s maleic anhydride product analyst believes that the main downstream resin of maleic anhydride has gradually stopped production before the holiday, and market support is limited; At present, the maleic anhydride market is cautious about the post holiday market, and it is expected that the market will mainly consolidate in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 29th, the average production price of ethyl acetate was 5516.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month price of 5576.67 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 1.08%. The main reason for the continuous decline in ethyl acetate prices is due to weak downstream demand, poor shipments from enterprises, and a decrease in raw material prices, resulting in a negative cost outlook.
Market analysis: This month, the ethyl acetate market has experienced a weak downward trend. In the first ten days, the price of ethyl acetate first fell and then rose, mainly due to the increase in the price of raw material acetic acid, which boosted the cost and led to a slight increase in the price of ethyl acetate; In the second half of the year, the price of ethyl acetate continued to decline, with weak upstream market conditions, weakened cost support, slow consumption of inventory on the demand side, poor enthusiasm for entering the market, and bearish sentiment among industry players. As a result, the price of ethyl acetate continued to decline.
According to the Business Society Acetic Acid Commodity Market Analysis System, as of April 29th, the price was 2700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.91% compared to the acetic acid price of 2810 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of acetic acid has decreased, the cost support for ethyl acetate has weakened, the profit of ethyl acetate has decreased, the shipping pressure has increased, and the market transaction focus has been lowered.
Looking at the future, the ethyl acetate market continues to be weak, with downstream companies adopting a wait-and-see attitude and insufficient demand support. Supply side enterprises have increased their inventory, resulting in increased sales pressure and a lack of favorable market conditions. It is expected that the price of ethyl acetate will remain weak in the future, with specific attention paid to changes in supplier equipment and downstream follow-up.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market will decline in April 2025, with an average price of 17220 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 16860 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decrease of 2.09%.
On April 29th, the Business Society Lead Index was 102.61, up 0.06 points from yesterday, down 23.43% from the highest point of 134.01 points during the cycle (2016-11-29), and up 37.49% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, in the form of a bar chart, reflects the weekly or monthly price changes. Investors can make buying and selling investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar represents the range of rise and fall.
In early April, due to fluctuations in the macroeconomic environment, lead prices showed a weak and volatile pattern. After the end of the Qingming Festival holiday, the direct impact of tariff policy adjustments led to a downward trend in lead prices during the review. With the gradual disappearance of macro disturbance factors and the marginal improvement of the fundamental supply-demand pattern, the center of gravity of lead prices gradually shifts upward, showing an overall strong oscillation operation.
Raw material end
Lead concentrate: The production capacity of mines in northern China is gradually being released, with abundant raw material inventory, improved profits from primary lead smelting, and high production enthusiasm.
Recycled lead raw materials: The amount of discarded lead-acid batteries has decreased, competition in recycling channels has intensified, and the price of discarded batteries is prone to rise but difficult to fall. Recycled lead enterprises may further reduce production due to cost inversion pressure.
demand side
Lead acid batteries: Downstream battery factories have started stocking up before the May Day holiday, but procurement has not yet been concentrated and increased, with demand mainly showing a mild recovery.
Export impact: The tariff policies imposed by China and the United States have increased the import cost of lead concentrate, while suppressing the export of lead-acid batteries, which has suppressed demand.
Prediction of future trends
In the short term, lead prices will show a fluctuating pattern of “upward pressure and downward support”. Upward drive: reduced production of recycled lead+release of pre holiday stocking demand+decrease in inventory. Downward risk: Increased primary lead production+macro risk aversion+export obstruction.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of April 27th, the price of lead 1 # was 16955 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.12% compared to the lead price of 16935 yuan/ton on April 21st.
This week’s market analysis
This week, lead prices have shown a narrow range of fluctuations, with prices running at low levels and moderately recovering. Against the backdrop of an overall balance between supply and demand, the market is achieving dynamic equilibrium through an orderly price adjustment mechanism, and there have been no abnormal fluctuations.
supply end
At present, the domestic primary lead smelting end maintains a high operating trend, and the industry’s comprehensive operating rate remains stable in the range of 70%. With the gradual resumption of smelting capacity that was previously affected by environmental inspections, the supply of primary lead in the market shows marginal incremental characteristics. However, regional raw material supply contradictions still exist: some smelters in the north are disrupted by the lead concentrate supply chain, and some suppliers are hindered by reduced mining production, cross-border transportation (such as delayed port clearance), or rising logistics costs, resulting in longer lead concentrate arrival cycles and insufficient arrival quantities, forcing enterprises to temporarily reduce production loads and constraining subsequent production plans.
The market for recycling waste batteries has shown a narrow range of price fluctuations this week. At the beginning of the month, driven by the expectation of a phased increase in lead prices, the reluctance of recyclers to sell has intensified, and the market circulation of goods has tightened. The willingness of holders of waste lead-acid batteries to ship has significantly increased, coupled with the release of demand for raw material replenishment by recycled lead enterprises, the market circulation of goods has gradually recovered, and the recycling prices have fallen accordingly. The supply-demand game has become more balanced..
demand side
April is the traditional off-season for consumption in the lead-acid battery industry, coupled with increased uncertainty in the global trade environment, resulting in a significant slowdown in the industry’s operating momentum. The demand side is showing a structural weakness trend: the automotive terminal market continues to be sluggish due to the “golden three silver four” trend, with retail sales of passenger cars declining year-on-year in the first two weeks of April, dragging down the development of lead-acid batteries. In terms of the battery swapping market, the stimulus effect of the policy of exchanging old for new electric bicycles is diminishing, coupled with the impact of the rainy season on terminal willingness to exchange, resulting in a decrease in orders for replacement batteries compared to the previous period, further exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance during the off-season.
comprehensive analysis
Without effective improvement in the macroeconomic situation, lead prices will find it difficult to obtain effective driving support from the demand side. Based on the current market supply-demand game pattern, it is expected that lead prices will continue to fluctuate in a weak range next week.