I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream carbide manufacturers increased from 2676.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2693.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.62%, down 1.77% year-on-year from the same period last year. On the whole, carbide market rose slightly this week, with the carbide commodity index at 70.57 on December 13.

II. Trend analysis

(I) products:

The ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China this week slightly increased: the price of oveganeng calcium carbide this weekend is 2590 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the price of Shaanxi coal industry this weekend is 2450 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the price of Neimenggu Zhonglian calcium carbide this week is 2790 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the price of Ningxia Xingping calcium carbide this weekend is 2700 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week Compared with that, the price is up 50 yuan / ton.

This weekend, the actual transaction price of carbide in Northwest China is about 2400-2800 yuan / ton: the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Shaanxi is about 2400-2600 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Ningxia is about 2700 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Inner Mongolia is about 2800 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

(II) industrial chain:

Upstream raw material Market: the ex factory quotation of coke this week was temporarily stable, with the quotation of 1666.67 yuan / ton, down 18.83% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of raw materials in the upper reaches was lower and consolidated. Compared with last year, the price dropped a lot and the cost support was insufficient, which had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market: PVC factory price fell slightly this week. PVC price decreased from 7062.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7040.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.32%, up 7.07% year on year. The downstream PVC market fell slightly, but compared with last year, the price is higher, and downstream customers have a higher enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide. As a whole, this week’s PVC market has a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

III. future forecast

After the adjustment in November, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low and consolidated. Compared with last year, the price has dropped a lot and the cost support is not enough. However, the PVC market in the downstream is better, and the downstream customers are more active in purchasing calcium carbide. The aftermarket forecasts that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may rise in the middle of December.

In recent years, the price of domestic rare earth has continued to rise. Since November 6, the price of domestic heavy rare earth has increased by 13.52%. Supported by the price of domestic heavy rare earth market, the market price of light rare earth has increased correspondingly. The price trend of some domestic rare earth products

In recent years, the market price of heavy rare earth in China has increased significantly, with a monthly increase of 13.5%. As of the 12th day, the price of dysprosium oxide is 1.72 million yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 13.52%; the price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 1.67 million yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 11.55%; the market price of some light rare earth in China has also increased, with a price of 293500 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 2.8%; the price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 366500 yuan/ The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 291500 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 2.82%. In recent years, the domestic price of heavy rare earth has increased substantially, and the market price of light rare earth has increased correspondingly. Affected by favorable national policies, the domestic rare earth market has improved.

On December 11, the rare earth index was 341, unchanged from yesterday, 65.90% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 1000 (2011-12-06), and 25.83% higher than the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

In recent years, the price of rare earth in the market has risen sharply. The domestic supply policy of heavy rare earth market, the export of heavy rare earth have improved, and the domestic market of heavy rare earth is very good. In addition, the demand for permanent magnet has increased recently, the market trend of praseodymium and neodymium series products has rebounded, the on-site supply is normal, the demand for light rare earth in the near future is general, and the market price has not increased much. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturer reasonably controls the sales, but the downstream demand has not changed much in the near future, and the price trend of most rare earths is mainly stable.

Recently, Geng Shuang, spokesman of the Ministry of foreign affairs, said that China is the world’s largest country in rare earth reserves and production, and plays an important role in the global rare earth industry chain. China has been adhering to the principle of openness, coordination and sharing, promoting the development of domestic rare earth industry, and is willing to meet the legitimate needs of the development of all countries in the world with rare earth resources and products, so as to promote China’s economy and the world Economic development plays an active role. China’s rare earth production accounts for 73% of the world’s total, ranking first in the world and playing an important role in the game between big countries. Rare earth PR nd and Dy TB are mainly used in NdFeB magnetic steel. Recently, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources jointly issued a notice to release the total amount control indicators of rare earth mining and smelting separation and tungsten mining in 2019. The Ministry of industry and information technology of China announced that the total amount of rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2019 was 132000 tons and 127000 tons respectively, while the quota of rare earth mining in 2018 was 120000 tons, an increase of 12000 tons, and the data in 2019 It’s the highest year since 2014. In addition, the Ministry of industry and information technology, together with relevant departments, drafted the development plan of new energy vehicle industry (2021-2035). After 15 years of continuous efforts, China’s core technology of new energy vehicles will reach the international leading level. By 2025, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales will reach about 25%. Driven by national policies, the supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, and China’s domestic demand is expected to further improve The price of rare earth in the domestic market has increased.

Rare earth analysts of business agency expect that the recent domestic environmental protection scrutiny will not be reduced, coupled with favorable support for the export of rare earth industry in China, and the supply and demand pattern is improving in a good way. It is expected that the price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market will continue to rise, and the price of light rare earth will also rise slightly.

I. price trend

According to the data in the bulk list of the business agency, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium on December 1 was 1950 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium on December 11 was 1950 yuan / ton, with the same price. On December 11, the monoammonium phosphate commodity index was 65.27, unchanged from yesterday, down 35.27% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.84 (2011-09-13), and up 5.12% from the lowest point of 62.09 on September 19, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on December 1 was 2255 yuan / ton, while the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on December 11 was 2250 yuan / ton, down 0.22%. The diammonium phosphate commodity index on December 11 was 67.11, unchanged from yesterday, a new low in the cycle, 34.83% lower than the highest point of 102.98 on October 8, 2011. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Monoammonium: since December, the domestic monoammonium phosphate Market is still in a downturn, and the enterprise operating rate is about 40%. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Anhui Province is 1850-1950 yuan / ton, and the commencement is stable. In Hubei Province, the factory price of 55% powdered ammonium is 1850-1950 yuan / ton, and that of 60% powdered ammonium is 2000-2100 yuan / ton. The market in Henan Province has maintained stable operation, and 55% of ammonium powder has been quoted at about 1850 yuan / ton, with stable start-up. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1900-2050 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 1900 yuan / ton.

Diammonium: since December, the domestic diammonium phosphate Market has continued to be weak, with an enterprise operating rate of about 40%. At present, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Hubei Province offers 2200-2300 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Shandong Province 2250-2350 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou Province 2300-2450 yuan / ton, and 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Anhui Province 2300-2450 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in the near future, the overall stable and weak operation of phosphorus ore market is the main factor. Affected by upstream and downstream demand and on-site inventory, the price may fluctuate slightly to stimulate the atmosphere on the site. The domestic sulfur market is weak in downward consolidation, the downstream demand is weak, the terminal purchase enthusiasm is weak, there is no news on the external market, the port inventory continues to increase, the consumption is slow, the industry is bearish on the future market, and the negotiation is mainly stalemate. The domestic liquid ammonia market continued the trend of last week, and continued to explore the high slightly. At present, the local ammonia volume is still tense, and there is no pressure for enterprises to ship, but the manufacturers with large ammonia volume mainly stabilize the price.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 48th week of 2019 (12.2-12.6), there are 17 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the chemical sector; the top three commodities are R22 (5.77%), liquid ammonia (3.72%) and organosilicon DMC (3.17%). There are 26 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month ratio, and the top three products were propylene (- 3.85%), isopropanol (- 3.63%) and polysilicon (- 3.34%). This week’s average was – 0.26%.

III. future forecast

Analysts of business association ammonium phosphate think that since winter, the market of ammonium phosphate has been in a downturn. The trend of raw materials is not good, the cost support is weak, the downstream demand is insufficient, and the trading volume is weak. It is expected that the weak trend of ammonium phosphate market will be hard to change in the later period, and the low consolidation will continue to be the main trend. It is suggested to pay attention to the change of raw material price and terminal demand.

I. price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of December 10, the average price of domestic ethanol market was 5530 yuan / ton, 1.28% higher than that of the same period last month, and 1.78% higher than that of the same period last year. The domestic ethanol market continued to rise, and the market in some regions was strong.

II. Market analysis

Products: in some areas of the ethanol market, the price of the lower inventory of enterprises continues to rise due to the centralized purchase in the lower reaches of Henan Province; in East China, the price of large factories goes up, and the products of popular devices have been produced; in Northeast China, the price of small factories falls slightly due to the limitation of logistics, and the stock of large factories in the centralized port is not high; in South China and Guangxi, the start-up of enterprises is not high, and the price is supported by the favorable supply Upstream.

Industry chain: corn: some areas of the ethanol market are up, Henan Province is subject to centralized procurement in the lower reaches, and the inventory price of enterprises continues to rise; large factories in East China are up, and popular devices have already produced products; small factories in Northeast China are subject to logistics restrictions, and the centralized port inventory of large factories is not high; enterprises in South China and Guangxi are not high in starting work, which is favorable for the supply side Keep up the price.

Ethyl acetate: the domestic market of ethyl acetate is temporarily stable. After the early replenishment, the downstream market continues to digest the main source of goods, and the new orders in the market are insufficient. The supplier’s inventory is accumulating continuously, and the decline of raw material acetic acid aggravates the downstream wait-and-see mentality, and all parties in the market are weak. In the short term, the stock of each manufacturer keeps accumulating, and the market trend of ethyl acetate is weak in stages.

III. future forecast

Business alcohol analysts predict that in the short term, the domestic ethanol market may be at a high level, and in the long term, it may be weak as supply increases.

I. price trend

This week, the domestic liquefied gas market is on the rise. At the beginning of the week, the average price of the domestic liquefied gas (Shandong) market was 3896.67 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week, the average price was 3960 yuan / ton, up 1.63% in the week, and the price was 4.35% lower than the same period last year.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: this week, the domestic liquefied gas market overall went up, and the market trading atmosphere improved. As of 6 December. The price of LPG from Sinopec Guangzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4060 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Jingmen Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4300 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3910 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Qingdao Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3900 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Shijiazhuang Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3900 yuan / ton The factory price of Luoyang Petrochemical LPG is 4150 yuan / ton.

This week, the domestic gas market in China is dominated by stable civil use and rising raw materials in the Northeast market; the market in South China continues to rise with a fair atmosphere; the market in East China slightly pushes up with a strong mentality; the inventory in the market along the river keeps rising without pressure; and the market in Shandong is positively rising. At the beginning of the week, although CP rose in December, which was good for the market, the international crude oil fell significantly, which suppressed the price rise, but the manufacturers’ mentality of supporting the market was obvious, and the price rose steadily. In the later period, crude oil rebounded sharply. In addition, the cold weather terminal consumption accelerated, the downstream market entered the market actively, the market transaction atmosphere improved, and the price rose strongly.

Saudi Aramco’s December CP announced a slight increase in propylene butane. Propane rose to $440 / T, up $10 / T from last month; butane $455 / T, up $10 / T from last month.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 48th week of 2019 (12.2-12.6), there are 10 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are WTI raw oil (5.91%), MTBE (5.62%) and gasoline (5.07%). There are two kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, the first two products falling are liquefied natural gas (- 0.58%) and fuel oil (- 0.22%). This week’s average was up or down 1.71%.

III. future forecast

According to the liquefied gas analyst of Business Club: at present, crude oil rebounds sharply, and CP rises in December, which is good for the market. In addition, affected by seasonal factors, the weather is cooling down, the downstream replenishment cycle is shortened, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is high. At present, the manufacturer’s shipment is relatively smooth, and the inventory is not under pressure. It is expected that there will still be upside next week.

I. trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, today’s domestic copper price first fell and then rose. As of the end of the week, the price was 47286.67 yuan / ton, down 0.18% from 47373.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 1.81% from the beginning of the year, down 4.18% year on year.

II. Market analysis

Copper and copper price: at the beginning of this week, the Shanghai copper index started to strengthen after jumping short and opening high. After the price rose 47540 yuan, it fell back to close at 47370 yuan, up 0.98%. At the beginning of this week, LME copper rose first and then suppressed in March, and the price rose $5968 at one time. It was under pressure in the middle of the week, and closed at $5882, up 0.50%.

Supply side: Freeport signed with Jiangxi copper, Tongling Nonferrous and China copper a long TC price of 62 US dollars / ton in 2020, which is close to the average TC spot price this year, reflecting the market’s expectation of tightening the mine end. However, at present, the production volume of domestic smelters has not yet had a substantial impact on production. In October, the domestic electrolytic copper output was 783000 tons, still increasing by 3.12% on a month on month basis. According to the normal production schedule of the smelter, the output is expected to increase to 786600 tons in November.

In terms of demand: Although China is facing a seasonal off-season of consumption after entering December, the sales of cars and home appliances in China have improved, and the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises has increased year on year, “the off-season is not too light”.

On the macro level, the shrinking trend of global manufacturing industry has been curbed, China’s official manufacturing PMI has returned to the top of the boom and bust line, and the PMI of many European countries has also recovered, and the operation of releasing capital flows of many countries has achieved initial results.

III. future prospects

Based on the above situation, the copper analyst of the non ferrous branch of the business society thinks that the copper market is in a tight balance and the supply and demand contradiction at the copper end is obvious. Meanwhile, the three major inventories of the global copper market, including the bonded area inventory, are all at a low level, which supports the bottom of the copper price. Copper price is expected to maintain a narrow range of volatile trend.

According to statistics, the price of phthalic anhydride in China has increased slightly. As of December 5, the price of phthalic anhydride from o-benzoic acid process was 6312.5 yuan / ton, and the recent price trend of o-benzoic acid market is mainly stalemate.

In recent years, the market price of phthalic anhydride in China has increased slightly, while in East China, the market price of phthalic anhydride has increased slightly. The downstream factories maintain the rigid demand for purchase, the factory inventory pressure is still there, and the high-end transaction is blocked. In recent years, the factory inventory has increased, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride is volatile. In East China, the main flow of negotiation of neighboring method source is 6200-6400 yuan / ton, and that of naphthalene method source is 5800-6000 yuan / ton; in North China, the main quotation of phthalic anhydride market is 6100-6200 yuan / ton, most of the manufacturers in the field are stable, the downstream construction is not high, the procurement is based on demand, the wait-and-see state is relatively strong, the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plant is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the field is normal, and some enterprises are on the market The price of phthalic anhydride increased slightly after the transfer out of the plant.

In the near future, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec is 6200 yuan / ton. Due to the high unit operating rate of some domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers, the normal supply of goods within the site, the import phthalic acid Market in the port area remains at a low level. In the near future, the phthalic acid Market in the port is stable, the port inventory is low, and the external price of phthalic acid is temporarily stable. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation, and the details are discussed in detail Benzene price stability, phthalic anhydride market price trend limited.

The downstream DOP price increased slightly, the price of isooctanol decreased, and the cost of DOP raw materials remained stable. DOP price is fluctuating, downstream demand of DOP is normal, customer procurement enthusiasm is general, downstream PVC market is fluctuating and rising, high-end DOP transaction is blocked, mainstream transaction price of DOP market is maintained at 7300-7550 yuan / ton, downstream price trend is normal, but upstream ox price is maintained at a low level, and demand of plasticizer industry is not changed much, phthalic anhydride analyst of business society expects that market price of phthalic anhydride will be mainly fluctuating in the later period

Recently, the price of heavy rare earth in China has continued to rise, and the market price of light rare earth has rebounded accordingly. The price trend chart of some domestic rare earth products:

In recent years, the market price of heavy rare earth in China has continued to rise. As of the 4th day, the price of dysprosium oxide was 1670000 yuan / ton; the price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 1650000 yuan / ton; the price of terbium rare earth remained at a high level on the 4th day; however, the market price of light rare earth in China was slightly affected, and the price of neodymium oxide was 289500 yuan / ton; the price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 362500 yuan / ton; the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 287500 yuan / ton 。 In recent years, the domestic price of heavy rare earth continued to rise, and the market price of light rare earth rebounded. Affected by the favorable national policies, the market price of heavy rare earth went up.

On December 3, the rare earth index was 337, up 1 point from yesterday, down 66.30% from the highest point in the cycle, 1000 (2011-12-06), and up 24.35% from the lowest point, 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

In recent years, the market price of rare earths has risen, the price of heavy rare earths in the rare earth market has continued to rise, the supply policy of domestic heavy rare earth market, the export of heavy rare earths has improved, and the price of domestic heavy rare earths has risen. In addition, the demand for permanent magnet has increased recently, the market trend of praseodymium and neodymium series products has stopped falling and rebounded, the on-site supply is normal, the recent demand for light rare earth is general, and the market price has risen slightly. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturer reasonably controls the sales, but the downstream demand has not changed much in the near future, and some rare earth prices are rising.

In November, Geng Shuang, spokesman of the Ministry of foreign affairs, presided over the regular press conference. Geng Shuang said that China is the world’s largest country in rare earth reserves and production, and plays an important role in the global rare earth industry chain. China has always adhered to the principle of openness, coordination and sharing, promoted the development of domestic rare earth industry, and is willing to meet the legitimate needs of the development of all countries in the world with rare earth resources and products, To play a positive role in promoting the development of China’s economy and the world economy. China’s rare earth production accounts for 73% of the world’s total, ranking first in the world and playing an important role in the game between big countries. Rare earth PR nd and Dy TB are mainly used in NdFeB magnetic steel. In addition, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources jointly issued a notice to release the total amount control indicators of rare earth mining, smelting separation and tungsten mining in 2019. The supply and demand pattern of the rare earth industry is expected to further improve, and people in the domestic market are waiting for the good news of the national reserves.

Rare earth analysts of the business agency expect that the recent domestic environmental protection scrutiny will not be reduced. In addition, the domestic export of rare earth industry will be well supported, and the supply and demand pattern is improving in a good way. It is expected that the price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market is still expected to continue to rise, and the light rare earth affected will also have a rebound.

I. price trend:

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the quotation of o-xylene Sinopec contract was stable and o-xylene market was stable in November. As of November 30, the contract price of o-xylene Sinopec was 6200.00 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with the price of 6200.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The price is 16.22% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Market analysis:

Product analysis

In November, the price of benzene was slightly fluctuating and fell. On November 29, the price of benzene in Europe was 860 US dollars / ton, down 5 US dollars / ton compared with the beginning of the month; the price of benzene in China was 753 US dollars / ton, down 7 US dollars / ton compared with the beginning of the month; the price of benzene in South Korea and Southeast Asia was down 7 US dollars / ton. In November, the external price of ortho benzene fell, the price of imported ortho benzene fell, the port ortho benzene market fell, the port inventory rose but remained at a low level, and the negative pressure of the future ortho benzene market increased, and the positive momentum weakened. Sinopec’s listing price of o-xylene in East China is 6200 yuan / ton, the supply of o-xylene is stable, the purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream of o-xylene is general, the purchasing enthusiasm of o-xylene is poor, the favorable momentum of the future o-xylene market is insufficient, and the downward pressure is large.

Factor analysis of industrial chain

In November, the price of mixed xylene rose first and then fell. In November, the overall price rose 3.81%. The price of raw material mixed xylene rose in November, and the cost of o-benzene rose. Since late November, the price of mixed xylene fell, and the market of mixed xylene was generally negative for the o-benzene market in the future. At the same time, because mixed xylene was in the rising range in November, the pressure of o-benzene falling was relatively small, and the market of mixed xylene was negative

In November, the price of phthalic anhydride fell in shock, which was negative for ortho benzene market. In terms of plasticizers, DOP market fell in November, while the downward pressure in the future increased and the upward momentum was weak. In November, the market of phthalic anhydride, plasticizer and other downstream products fell, while the market of phthalic anhydride and plasticizer was negative. In the last ten days, the market of phthalic anhydride and plasticizer recovered. The market of phthalic acid had a certain upward momentum, but the upward momentum was limited. The overall industrial chain was weaker, and the negative increased. The downward pressure of the future market of phthalic acid increased and the upward momentum weakened.

3. Future forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of o-xylene of business association, in November, the price of o-xylene raw materials mixed with xylene rose in shock, and the cost of o-benzene rose, which gave a certain impetus to the market of o-benzene; in terms of demand, in November, the market of phthalic anhydride fell in shock, the market of o-benzene was negative, the market of plasticizer fell in shock, and the downstream demand of o-benzene declined in general, while the market of o-benzene was negative; in terms of external market, the market of o-benzene in November External quotation slightly fell, port inventory rose, on the domestic market for neighboring benzene negative. To sum up, in November, the market of o-xylene was more bearish and less favorable, while the market of o-xylene was under more downward pressure. At the same time, the downstream market recovered in late November, the production cost of ortho benzene increased, and the decline space of ortho benzene was limited. It is expected that the future market of ortho benzene will be weak and stable.

The future market should focus on: the price trend of downstream phthalic anhydride and plasticizer. Attention can be paid to: o-benzene cost and o-benzene outer disk.

I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the market of plasticizer DOP weakened in November, and the price of DOP fell. As of November 30, the price of DOP in East China was 7366.67 yuan / ton, down 83.33 yuan / ton or 1.12% compared with 7450.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (November 1), down 18.82% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market analysis

Product analysis

DOP prices fell in November, down 1.12%. Overall DOP prices fell in January, with a single decline significantly contracted compared with October. Although the DOP market rebounded briefly in November, it is still in a weak position on the whole. The demand for DOP is limited, but the supply is sufficient, and the overall DOP supply exceeds the demand.

Commodity name ﹣ port ﹣ 11.29 price ﹣ 11.22 price ﹣ 11.15 price ﹣ 11.8 price ﹣ 11.1 price ﹣ price type ﹣ unit

DOP China 930.00 920.00 920.00 920.00 920.00 920.00 CFR USD / ton

DOP Southeast Asia 1150.00 1150.00 1140.00 1140.00 1130.00 CFR USD / ton

© November 2019 business club www.100ppi.com

As can be seen from the table, DOP prices rose in November, which was positive. In November, the price of DOP in China was 920-930 US dollars / ton, with a price increase of 10 US dollars / ton; in Southeast Asia, the price of DOP in November was 1130-1150 US dollars / ton, with a price increase of 20 US dollars / ton, with a price increase of plasticizer DOP, with a favorable domestic plasticizer Market.

Analysis of industrial chain

It can be seen from the figure that in terms of raw materials, the price of DOP raw material phthalic anhydride fell sharply in November, and the price of octanol fell slightly, phthalic anhydride fell by 2.51% and octanol by 1.18%; the overall cost of DOP fell, and DOP market was negative. In the last ten days of November, the price of phthalic anhydride from neighboring process fluctuated and remained stable, the price of phthalic anhydride from naphthalene process fell, and the price of phthalic anhydride, the raw material of DOP, fluctuated and fell as a whole, which was bad for DOP market. The rising power of DOP Market in the future weakened and the falling pressure increased, and it is expected that DOP market in the future will fall.

In terms of downstream demand, PVC market rose in November, up 5.86%, and DOP downstream market recovered, which was good for DOP market. However, due to the centralized maintenance of PVC, PVC production was in the off-season, the demand for DOP decreased, and the momentum for DOP to rise was limited.

III. future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of DOP business agency, believes that in November, the price of plasticizer DOP raw material isooctanol fell in shock, and the price of phthalic anhydride fell in shock. The decline of raw material market is bad for DOP market. Since the end of November, the price of isooctanol has been stable, that of phthalic anhydride by ortho process has been stable, that of phthalic anhydride by naphthalene process has been declining, and the overall cost of DOP has declined slightly, while the market of DOP has been negative but the negative pressure is small. Downstream, PVC prices rose sharply in November, but November is the traditional off-season of PVC. Equipment maintenance of PVC manufacturers increased, and the demand for DOP decreased. There is a certain negative for DOP market. There is downward pressure, but the negative is limited. Generally speaking, plasticizer DOP market is under great downward pressure, with limited demand for DOP. It is expected that DOP market will be weak and stable in the future.