Zinc prices fluctuated and fell this week

According to data monitoring by the Business News Agency, as of March 16, the zinc price was 22438 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.37% compared to the fluctuating zinc price of 23220 yuan/ton on March 9. The spread of the banking crisis in Europe and the United States has dampened market sentiment, and zinc prices have fallen sharply this week.

Several banks in the United States have failed

Two days after the collapse of the Silicon Valley bank, the American Signature Bank in New York State was also closed by regulatory authorities, after another cryptocurrency bank, Silvergate Capital, announced that it would cease operations as early as March 8. Within a week, three American banks failed in succession! Most European and American stock markets collapsed, the banking crisis spread, and market sentiment was dampened. Commodity prices generally fell, while zinc prices followed suit.

Credit Suisse Crisis Triggered

Credit Suisse disclosed in its latest financial report that it had found “significant defects” in its internal control, while its largest shareholder, Saudi National Bank, said that due to regulatory restrictions, it was unable to provide more financial support. The news “ignited” European and American stock markets. Most European and American stock indexes collapsed, and safe haven assets such as gold, treasury bond bonds and the US dollar rose in succession. Market concerns about the future economic downturn have intensified, with commodity prices generally falling, London’s zinc overnight market plummeting, and domestic zinc prices falling even further.

Aftermarket Forecast

According to the data analysts of Business News Agency, the banking crisis spread, the market sentiment was depressed, most of the stock markets in Europe and the United States collapsed, and the yield of treasury bond plummeted, increasing the risk of financial crisis and worries about the future economic downturn. The market sentiment in the zinc market is depressed, and concerns about insufficient future demand have intensified. It is expected that the zinc price will fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to the monitoring of the Business Agency, the domestic PTA spot market has maintained an upward trend since March. As of March 9, the average market price in East China was 5872 yuan/ton, up 4.92% from the beginning of the month and down 10.42% year on year.

From the perspective of PTA supply side, there are many PTA units under maintenance and production reduction at present, among which, 325 thousand tons of Luoyang Petrochemical were overhauled on March 3, and 2.4 million tons of Honggang Petrochemical were overhauled on March 6. The industry started about 72%, and PTA was slightly destocked. Therefore, in terms of supply and demand, PTA is expected to go out of stock in April, supporting the strength of PTA prices.

However, the negative expectation of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate increase led to the continuous decline of the international crude oil price, which had a certain inhibition on the rise of PTA. As of March 9, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $75.72/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $81.59/barrel.

In the downstream, polyester starts remain at a high level of more than 80%, and domestic orders in spring and summer have increased. In the context of a moderate recovery in demand, although there is no significant increase, it can maintain at a high level of rigid demand. However, foreign trade orders are still not improving. The factory feedback that new orders are insufficient, and the final foreign trade orders of weaving factories shrink.

Some PTA units are planned to increase the load next week, and the new production capacity of 2.5 million tons of PTA in Guangdong may be tested. At the same time, the downstream market still faces insufficient demand and uncertain foreign trade prospects. Analysts of Business Agency believe that the PTA market price may weaken due to shocks.

The spot price of silicon metal continued to fall this week, with a drop of about 100-150 yuan/ton. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, as of March 13, the average price of 441 # metal silicon spot market in China was 17660 yuan/ton, down by% 0.95 month-on-week. The main reason for the stepwise decline of the spot silicon price is that the downstream consumption is slow, the metal silicon inventory is weak, and the market confidence is weak. At present, many silicon enterprises are still under the pressure of inventory and capital, and have to reduce the price to ship. The futures market continued to decline – 3.03% this week to close at 16960 yuan/ton.

The price of 441 # silicon in various regions on the 13th is as follows:

The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Huangpu Port area is 17500-17800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 17650 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Tianjin Port is 17500-17600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 17550 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Kunming is 17500-17600 yuan/ton, with an average of 17550 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Sichuan is 17300-17500 yuan/ton, with an average of 17400 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metal silicon is 18100-18200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 18150 yuan/ton.

Influencing factors of metal silicon price

Supply:

The total number of silicon metal furnaces opened this week was 339. As of March 10, the silicon metal furnace opening rate was about 47.35%, 154 in Xinjiang, 27 in Sichuan and 55 in Yunnan. The supply of silicon metal remained stable, and the number of furnace starts increased slightly. Among them, the operating rate in Southwest China remains low, and the boiler shutdown in Sichuan is about 70%. In addition, due to the limited impact of the film, it is expected that there will be many factories and households in the southwest region to stop production and repair.

Demand:

Polycrystalline silicon stabilized after rising, and the mainstream range reached the range of 200-225000 yuan/ton. The supply side has not changed much, the operating rate of enterprises has maintained a medium-high level, and the number of orders signed by large factories has continued to follow up, and new orders have been signed in April. However, the price of downstream silicon wafers is weak, the bargaining power of silicon manufacturers is weakened, and the price of large silicon manufacturers mostly remains at the price level of last week, which is expected to maintain interval adjustment later.

The price of aluminum alloy ADC12 fell by 300 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price was 19100 yuan/ton. The unsatisfactory consumption in the terminal automobile industry has led to the weak performance of aluminum alloy, and the purchase of silicon metal has just to be replenished.

The domestic silicone DMC market fell, and the market price was 16960 yuan/ton. The overall performance of the downstream demand of silicone DMC is still calm, the supply and demand transmission is slow, and the new orders received from the downstream are not followed up in time. In addition, some organosilicon plants have shutdown and maintenance plans this month, and the overall operating rate of organosilicon DMC has been reduced, which has suppressed the demand for metal silicon.

Aftermarket forecast

In general, the supply of silicon metal has maintained a small growth, but the market demand is lack of support, and the empty side of the silicon market has a significant strength. After the recent two sessions, the policy has supported the consumption of silicon industry chain, and the cost in the southwest region is supported, and the decline space of metal silicon is gradually limited. It is expected that metal silicon will run weakly and stably in the short term.

This week, the lead market (3.3-3.10) rose first, then fell, and fell overall. The average price of the domestic market was 15125 yuan/ton at the end of last week and 15085 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 0.26%.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. Since the market entered September, the expectation of downstream battery enterprises in the peak season has increased, driving the price of primary lead to rise. After the end of the peak season, the price continued to weaken, and the price rose slightly after the holiday.

In terms of futures market, Lun-lead fell as a whole this week, with the shock range of USD 2050-2150/ton. LME inventory increased by 200 tons this week, and Lun-lead support weakened. From the macro point of view, the expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this week further increased, the metal market was generally under pressure, and the lead price fell. Shanghai lead fluctuated this week, with the main operating range of 15150-15350 yuan/ton.

The trend of the spot market this week was basically the same as that of Shanghai Lead, which rose first and then fell. On the supply side, the operating rate of primary lead increased slightly this week, and some maintenance plants resumed work this week. In terms of demand, the downstream is still in the off-season, the operating rate has declined slightly recently, the purchase intention of the storage enterprises is slightly low, the inventory is mainly accumulated as a whole, and the downstream maintains the purchase in demand. In general, the lead ingot market is still weak. It is expected that the future market will remain volatile and weak, and the market fluctuation in the off-season will still follow the macro factors.

The base metal index stood at 1203 points on March 11, which was the same as yesterday, down 25.56% from the highest point of 1616 points in the cycle (2022-03-09), and up 87.38% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 10th week of 2023 (3.6-3.10), there was a total of 1 commodity in the non-ferrous sector, with cobalt (2.33%) rising. There are 16 commodities with a month-on-month decline and 1 commodity with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three products falling were tin (-5.39%), nickel (-4.47%) and silver (-3.72%). This week’s average rise and fall was -1.33%.

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, as of March 10, the price of lithium iron phosphate, a high-quality power product, was 145000 yuan/ton. Compared with the same period last week, the market of lithium iron phosphate was stable, and the overall price changed little. The mainstream price range was around 145000 yuan/ton. It was mainly for contract customers, and new orders were not accepted.

This week, lithium iron phosphate operated smoothly, with a limited range of price fluctuations. At present, the mainstream price is 145000 yuan/ton. The upstream price is weak, and the cost support of lithium iron phosphate is insufficient. The downstream purchase is based on demand, and the manufacturers supply only old customers. The overall market operation is stable, the operating rate is normal, and the logistics is smooth. In the short term, lithium iron phosphate operates smoothly.

Chemical commodity index: The chemical index reached 923 points on March 9, which was the same as yesterday, down 34.07% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 54.35% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

Analyst of lithium iron phosphate of the Business Society believes that the lithium iron phosphate market is mainly stable in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the price index of the rare earth market has continued to decline since March, and the trend of the domestic rare earth market has declined. The rare earth index was 587 points on March 6, down 15 points from yesterday, down 41.71% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 116.61% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The prices of neodymium oxide, metal neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metal praseodymium praseodymium neodymium oxide and metal praseodymium neodymium all fell in China. As of the 7th, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium was 755000 yuan/ton, down 7.93% from the 28th; The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide was 625000 yuan/ton, down 8.42% since March; The price of neodymium oxide was 655000 yuan/ton, down 7.09%; The price of neodymium metal was 815000 yuan/ton, and the price trend fell by 8.94% in March; The price of praseodymium metal was 820000 yuan/ton, down 7.87%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 635000 yuan/ton, down 5.58%.

The domestic light rare earth market demand is hard to be optimistic. The downstream magnetic material enterprises still focus on digesting the inventory. The new order situation is rare and the purchase is very light. The metal demand situation in the rare earth market has not improved. Some metal factories have almost no transactions. In addition, the transaction situation of the rare earth oxide inquiry is also not optimistic. The prices of the holders continue to decline. In the near future, the downstream procurement is very cold, coupled with the gradual resumption of production enterprises, the supply of light rare earth market is increasing, and the negative factors are superimposed, and the domestic light rare earth market price is mainly declining.

The price of domestic heavy rare earth dysprosium series fell, and the price of dysprosium oxide was 1.97 million yuan/ton as of the 7th, down 8.8% from the price of the 28th; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 1.96 million yuan/ton, down 9.26%; The price of dysprosium metal was 2.79 million yuan/ton, down 5.9%; The price of domestic terbium is mainly declining. The price of domestic terbium oxide is 10.55 million yuan/ton, and the price of metal terbium is 13.95 million yuan/ton. The price of heavy rare earths has continued to decline, the production enterprises in Sichuan and other places have started to rise, and the downstream procurement is scarce. The oversupply has made the market price decline difficult to change. However, Myanmar’s exports are limited, and the global supply of rare earth is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on the products in the domestic heavy rare earth market, and the market price of heavy rare earth is lower.

According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 425000 and 408000 respectively in January 2023, down 46.6% and 49.9% on a month-on-month basis, down 6.9% and 6.3% on a year-on-year basis, and the market share reached 24.7%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles have declined, the demand for new energy has declined, and the price trend of domestic rare earth market has declined.

The recent purchase list of rare earth downstream businesses shows poor demand. In addition to the increase in upstream supply, the contradiction between supply and demand is acute, and the transaction situation is rare. In the short term, the price of rare earth market is mainly declining. In the long term, the new energy vehicles, wind power, and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth are sustainable development. The demand in the new energy field is still guaranteed, and the development of rare earth industry is optimistic.

Recent urea price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic urea market price rose slightly this week, and the urea price rose from 2799.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 2835.62 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 1.31%, up 5.96% year-on-year. The urea commodity index on March 5 was 131.89, which was the same as yesterday, down 13.42% from the highest point of 152.33 (2022-05-15) in the cycle, and up 137.21% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Cost support weakened, downstream demand increased, and urea supply was normal

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream price of domestic urea rose this week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the urea upstream market rose and fell this week: the price of liquefied natural gas fell slightly, from 6082.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 5950.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 2.17%, down 19.00% from the same period last year; The price of anthracite is low, and the price of Yangquan anthracite (washing medium lump) is 1480 yuan/ton; The price of liquid ammonia dropped slightly, from 4506.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 4440.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 1.48%, up 0.08% year-on-year. Upstream raw material prices fell slightly, and support for urea prices weakened. The price of melamine downstream of urea rose slightly this week, from 8266.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 8275.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 0.10%.

From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand has gradually followed up, and industrial demand has increased. The use of fertilizer for spring ploughing is gradually followed up, and the agricultural demand is good. The operating rate of the compound fertilizer plant is acceptable, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is general. The start of plate and melamine enterprises has increased slightly, and the purchase of raw materials is mainly needed. From the perspective of supply, some gas-head enterprises have started to resume production. The daily output of urea is about 160000-170000 tons, and the supply is relatively sufficient.

Rising after a small shock

The domestic urea market may rise slightly in the first ten days of March. According to the urea analyst of the Business Agency, the prices of anthracite and liquefied gas in the upstream of urea are low and the cost of urea is generally supported. Downstream agricultural demand increased slightly and industrial demand increased. Some gas-head enterprises began to resume production, and the daily output of urea was about 16-17 million tons. In the future, urea rose mainly in a narrow range.

According to the data of the bulk commodity list of the Business News Agency, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province has been fluctuating recently. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province was 1256.67 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province was 1283.33 yuan/ton, up 2.12%. The current price fell 7.51% year on year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province has fluctuated and risen. From the above figure, we can see that the recent market of formaldehyde has mainly fluctuated slightly, and the market has risen this week. As of March 3, the mainstream market price in Shandong was 1250-1350 yuan/ton. This week, the price of raw material methanol rose, and the downstream plate factories maintained the purchase just in need, while the formaldehyde manufacturers were more active in shipping, and the market fluctuated.

Upstream methanol: the domestic methanol market fluctuated slightly, and the methanol market in southern Shandong was consolidated and operated, with the local ex-factory price of 2600-2650 yuan/ton, and the high-end price was quoted; The delivery price in Linyi is 2660-2670 yuan/ton. Downstream demand changes are limited, the fluctuation of international oil prices is relatively large, and the market is also in a negative mood, and the methanol market subsequently falls in a narrow range.

Recently, the methanol market has been volatile and low, the cost support is not good, and the downstream is still just in need of purchase, and the formaldehyde market is likely to follow the methanol fluctuation, so the formaldehyde analyst of the Chemical Branch of the Business Association predicted that the recent price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province is mainly volatile.

The nitrile rubber market continued to rise in February. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, the price was 17475 yuan/ton as of February 28, up 6.23% from 16450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In February, the price of nitrile rubber raw materials was running at a high level, with a small amount of replenishment in the downstream, and the market supply was relatively stable. The listing price of nitrile rubber enterprises was increased, and the market offer rose. As of February 28, the ex-factory price of orchid nitrile 3305 was 17200 yuan/ton.

In February, the domestic nitrile rubber plant started steadily.

In February, the price of raw materials butadiene and acrylonitrile rose, and the cost of nitrile rubber was supported. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, the price of butadiene was 9887 yuan/ton as of February 28, up 6.52% from 9282 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of February 28, the price of acrylonitrile was 10500 yuan/ton, up 4.35% from 10062 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

At the beginning of the month, the downstream stock preparation supported the sharp rise of nitrile rubber. With the high price of nitrile rubber in the middle and late days of the month, the downstream replenishment speed slowed down, and the market of nitrile rubber in the middle and late days of the month had a narrow consolidation.

Future forecast: NBR analysts from the business agency believe that the current high raw material price is supported by the cost of NBR, while the downstream demand is slowed in the short term, and the demand support is weak in the short term. It is expected that the NBR market will be consolidated in a narrow range in the short term.

1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of Business News Agency, the average mainstream price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refiners was 2926.50 yuan/ton on February 20, and 2864.00 yuan/ton on February 28, a decrease of 2.14%.

The petroleum coke commodity index on February 28 was 222.76, down 1.94 points from yesterday, down 45.50% from the cycle peak of 408.70 points (2022-05-11), and up 233.02% from the lowest point of 66.89 points on March 28, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In late February, the price of petroleum coke from local refineries fell sharply, and the delivery and investment of local refineries slowed down. At present, the petroleum coke storage in domestic ports is high, and the supply of petroleum coke market is sufficient, and the intention of receiving goods from downstream enterprises is general.

The recent trend of international crude oil prices is volatile. On the macro level, the inflation level in the United States remains high, and the economic data is strong. The month-on-month rise in inflation data in January makes the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s radical interest rate increase continue to rise. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its first meeting in 2023. As soon as the news came out, the oil market fell sharply at the end of the day. The minutes showed that the probability of further interest rate increase was increased, and the stubbornness of inflation and the long-term trend of inflation made the interest rate reduction at the end of the year almost impossible, which led to the pressure on the prices of risky assets such as crude oil. The western developed economies are suffering from inflation and are still in the expected channel of economic recession. It is difficult for oil demand to improve in the medium and long term. It can also be seen from the EIA inventory data that the super accumulation of gasoline and refined oil makes market participants uneasy, especially the news that the United States has released its crude oil reserves again is also negative for the oil market. However, the rising demand in Asia has played a certain role in supporting the international oil price, and Russia’s production reduction in March is expected to boost the oil price.

The calcined coke market declined in late February; The market of silicon metal remained stable. As of February 28, the price was 17960 yuan/ton; The downstream electrolytic aluminum market is down. As of February 28, the price is 18340 yuan/ton; Downstream aluminum carbon enterprises mainly purchase according to demand, and are cautious in receiving goods.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The petroleum coke analyst of the Business Society predicted that the international crude oil market in late February was volatile and downward, and the cost support of petroleum coke was limited; At present, the domestic petroleum coke storage is high, the imported coke storage is high, the market supply is sufficient, the local refining enterprises are under pressure to ship, and the downstream carbon enterprises mainly purchase as required. It is expected that in the near future, the weakness of petroleum coke will be mainly sorted out.