I. price trend

The price of monoammonium phosphate in the domestic market fell slightly this week, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies. On November 18, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium in China was 1966 yuan / ton, and on November 22, the average ex factory price was 1950 yuan / ton, with a drop of 1.85%. On November 22, the monoammonium phosphate commodity index was 65.83, unchanged from yesterday, down 34.72% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.84 (2011-09-13), and up 6.02% from the lowest point of 62.09 on September 19, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Products: 55% of ammonium powder in Anhui Province has a factory quotation of 1850-2050 yuan / ton, and the commencement is stable. In Hubei Province, 55% of the total price of powdered ammonium is 1800-2000 yuan / ton, and 60% of the total price of powdered ammonium is 2000-2100 yuan / ton. The market in Henan Province has maintained stable operation, 55% of ammonium powder has been quoted 1800-1950 yuan / ton, and some enterprises have overhauled their devices. The price of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1850-2050 yuan / ton, which is stable. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is 1850-2050 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: at present, the domestic sulfur market continues to explore, the contradiction between supply and demand is still the same, the increase and consumption of port inventory is slow, the market is dominated by negative emotions, the industry is bearish on the future market, the negotiation atmosphere is cold, after last week’s phosphorus and compound fertilizer industry conference, the market remains quiet, coupled with the lack of information guidance in the market, the demand has not changed. In winter, the phosphorus ore market has been operating at a low level. In the past week, the overall market of domestic phosphorus ore market has not recovered significantly, and the weak trend is still the same. Affected by environmental protection and other policies, the production of the mine is limited, and new orders are still not traded. Under the low operating rate of the enterprise, the overall supply of the factory has declined, and the mine and dealers have maintained the current status of price protection, The willingness of some enterprises to hold a firm price is obvious, and the prices of individual enterprises are high, and the actual transaction is low.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 46th week of 2019 (11.18-11.22), there are 19 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are isopropanol (9.31%), acetone (6.28%) and acrylic acid (3.24%). There are 26 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 3 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 3.5% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products falling are caustic soda (- 11.61%), epichlorohydrin (- 8.58%) and sulfur (- 5.42%). This week’s average was – 0.38%.

III. future forecast

Analysts of monoammonium phosphate of business association think that due to the continuous decline of raw material market price, the opening of winter storage market is slow, and the downstream enterprises are insufficient to buy. Part of the enterprise equipment maintenance, dealers lack of confidence. At present, the market is still weak with limited cost support. It is expected that the fall space of monoammonium phosphate will be limited in the later period, and the market will continue to consolidate at a low level.

I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business association, as of November 22, the average price of 30% grade phosphate rock in China was around 360-430 yuan / ton based on the quotation of sample enterprises in several mainstream areas, basically the same as last week, and the overall operation of the phosphate rock market was stable this week.

II. Market analysis

Products: the domestic phosphorus ore market continued to run in a downturn this week. At the beginning of the month, prices in some regions were slightly adjusted. Prices of some mining enterprises in Guizhou and other regions remained high. Prices of phosphorus mining enterprises in a small part of Kaiyang region were slightly lower due to the impact of demand. In the past two weeks, prices have been running steadily. The current monitoring data shows that the overall market is 1.73% lower than that at the beginning of the month, and the overall actual turnover of the market is still rare The volume of new orders of mining enterprises is small, and the negotiated transaction price is low. At present, the operation rate of the mine is not good, about 40% of the site starts, and the production is limited. The mining enterprises mainly implement the orders of old customers, and the new orders are few. The downstream demand of domestic phosphorus ore market is weak. Affected by the environmental protection policy in 2019, the downstream yellow phosphorus output is low. In addition, in winter, the downstream products such as phosphate fertilizer are in the off-season, which makes the overall demand of phosphorus ore market low and it is difficult to drive the market to move goods. As of November 22, the trading atmosphere of Yunnan phosphorus ore market is light. The ex factory quotation of 29% phosphate rock in Yunnan is 32 0 yuan / ton; phosphorus ore market in Hubei continues to be weak and stable, with 30% ammonium phosphate ore ship plate quotation reference of 420-440 yuan / ton; phosphorus ore market demand in Guizhou is low, weak and stable as a whole, with 30% ammonium phosphate ore car plate quotation of 340-430 yuan / ton, and 30% grade phosphate ore factory quotation of Guizhou kaiphosphate phosphate ore reference of 430 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, there are 15 kinds of commodities in the price up and down list of bulk 58 on November 21, 2019, which are concentrated in the non-ferrous (4 kinds in total) and energy (3 kinds in total). The top three commodities are WTI crude oil (3.44%), cold rolled (1.23%) and PTA (1.01%). There are 18 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, which are mainly agricultural and sideline products (4 kinds in total) and nonferrous products (4 kinds in total). The commodities with a decline of more than 5% are mainly concentrated in the chemical industry sector; the top three commodities are caustic soda (- 11.61%), urea (- 2.35%) and nickel (- 2.22%). The average price of this day was – 0.28%.

Industrial chain: the yellow phosphorus market is generally stable temporarily, the on-site construction is declining, and the supply is relatively tight. Some yellow phosphorus enterprises want to raise their prices. At present, the new order transaction in the yellow phosphorus market refers to 18200-18600 yuan / ton. The phosphoric acid market continued to operate stably and the trading was relatively stable.

III. future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business association, it is expected that the phosphorus ore market will remain weak and stable in the near future on the premise that the demand is difficult to increase, and the actual situation will still be wait-and-see.

1. Trade name: standard aluminum ingot (99.70)

2. Latest price (November 21, 2019): 14110 yuan / ton

3. Key points of analysis: the heating season starts, and the policy requires real-time monitoring of air quality to achieve flexible production, which to a certain extent affects the production reduction of electrolytic aluminum.

(1) raw aluminum production data list

According to data released by the International Aluminum Industry Association (IAI), global raw aluminum production increased to 5.392 million tons in October, and revised to 5.222 million tons in September. China’s crude aluminum production is expected to increase to 3.014 million tons in October, compared with 2.917 million tons in September.

(2) list of raw aluminum demand data

According to a report released by the world Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMs) on Wednesday, the global raw aluminum market was short of 530000 tons from January to September 2019.

(3) list of import and export data of aluminum industry chain

According to the website data of the National Bureau of statistics, the aluminum output in October was 4.558 million tons, up 6.6% year on year; the total output from January to October was 42.409 million tons, up 5.7% year on year.

The output of aluminum alloy in October was 813000 tons, up 1.5% year on year; the total output from January to October was 7.481 million tons, down 7.3% year on year.

The output of alumina in October was 5.968 million tons, up 3.6% year on year; the total output from January to October was 60.772 million tons, up 4.4% year on year.

4. Future forecast

At present, the aluminum ingot Market is relatively stable, and it is expected to be mainly operated in the first line of 14000 shocks in the near future.

I. price trend

According to the data of the commodity list of the business association, the formaldehyde Market in Shandong Province has been rising slightly recently. The average price of formaldehyde on November 19 was 1076.670 yuan / ton, and the average price of formaldehyde on November 20 was 1083.33 yuan / ton, up 0.62%. The current price is down 28.96% year on year.

II. Market analysis

Products: the price of formaldehyde in domestic market has increased slightly. As of the 20th, the main factory quotation in Hebei is about 940 yuan / ton, the main factory quotation in South China is about 1200 yuan / ton, the main factory quotation in Shandong is 1080 yuan / ton, and the main factory quotation in Jiangsu is 1250 yuan / ton. The annual output of 120000 tons formaldehyde plant in Linyi Yinhe, Shandong Province has been restarted, with the formaldehyde content of 36.7-37%. Formaldehyde market supply is acceptable, the market trading atmosphere has picked up, and the price has risen slightly.

Industry chain: domestic methanol market performance is different, up and down are reflected. In terms of the mainland market, the atmosphere in some regions is fair and the trend continues to rise under the partial stop of sales; at present, the port market is in linkage with each other during the maintenance period, showing weakness, and needs to pay attention to the futures market dynamics in the short term. Local downstream markets started to operate in succession, and the overall demand rose, providing support for formaldehyde. Formaldehyde prices bottomed out.

III. future forecast

Recently, the upstream methanol market “probe”, supported by the cost side, the market turnover has recovered, and the downstream market operating rate has recovered, but it still takes time to open the demand market, so the formaldehyde analyst of the chemical branch of the business society predicted that the domestic formaldehyde price or consolidation is the main one in the near future.

I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the DOP price fell slightly in November, and the overall plasticizer DOP market remained stable. As of November 19, the price of DOP in East China was 7366.67 yuan / ton, down 83.33 yuan / ton, or 1.12% compared with 7450.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (November 1), and down 21.70% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market analysis

Product analysis

Commodity name port 10.25 price 10.18 price 10.11 price 10.4 price type unit

DOP China 930.00 940.00 950.00 965.00 CFR USD / ton

DOP Southeast Asia 1140.00 1150.00 1180.00 1200.00 CFR USD / ton

© October 2019 business club www.100ppi.com

As can be seen from the table, DOP’s external quotation fell sharply in October, and DOP’s market was negative. In October, the external quotation of DOP in China fell by 35.00 USD / T; in Southeast Asia, the external quotation of DOP fell by 60 USD / T, the external quotation of plasticizer DOP fell, and the domestic plasticizer market was negative.

Analysis of industrial chain

In terms of raw materials, in November, the price of DOP raw materials, phthalic anhydride, remained stable after fluctuating and falling, and the price of octanol fell, and the price of phthalic anhydride and isooctanol fell more than that of DOP. The overall cost of DOP fell, which was negative for DOP market. The downward pressure of DOP market was great, and the price of DOP fell.

In terms of downstream demand, PVC market surged in November, and the downstream demand of DOP recovered, and the future DOP market was favorable. However, due to the limited growth of PVC, the momentum of DOP rising was general.

III. future forecast

According to Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of DOP of business agency, the price of raw materials phthalic anhydride and isooctanol of plasticizer DOP fell in November, the cost of DOP fell, and DOP market was negative. Downstream, PVC prices rose slightly in November, and DOP demand was good. DOP market had rising power but not enough power. Generally speaking, the plasticizer DOP market has some downward pressure, but the downward pressure is weakened, and the demand is rising. The plasticizer DOP market has an upward momentum, but the power is limited, so it is difficult to support the DOP market to recover. It is expected that the future DOP market will be mainly stable.

I. price trend

Recently, the 20th China made high concentration phosphate compound fertilizer production and marketing meeting was solemnly opened in Qingdao, Shandong Province. The industry people gathered in Qingdao to discuss relevant policies. At present, the phosphorus and compound fertilizer meeting has ended, and the winter storage market has also started. According to the data in the business club’s large list, on November 18, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2335 yuan / ton. Compared with November 1 (2366.67), it decreased by 1.34%. On November 18, DAP commodity index was 69.65, which was the same as yesterday, a new low in the cycle, 32.37% lower than the highest point of 102.98 on October 8, 2011. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Product: due to the decline of raw material price and the squeeze of international market, the market of diammonium phosphate continues to be depressed and weak. The operation rate of the enterprise is insufficient, and some of the enterprise’s devices are overhauled. At present, 64% of mainstream diammonium in Hubei Province offers 2250-2400 yuan / ton, 64% of mainstream diammonium in Shandong Province 2200-2400 yuan / ton, 64% of mainstream diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou Province 2300-2500 yuan / ton, and 64% of mainstream diammonium in Anhui Province 2250-2450 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: in recent years, the domestic sulfur market has been weak, the downstream demand is weak, the terminal purchase enthusiasm is weak, there is no news on the external market, the port inventory has not been reduced but continues to increase, and the industry is bearish on the future market. From the perspective of demand, the supply and demand performance is weak, and the negotiation is stagnant. Port inventory increases, consumption is slow, market trading is still cold, on-demand procurement based, both sides wait for information guidance. Phosphorus ore market has been in a weak state of consolidation, demand is still weak, on-site trading is weak, enterprises sporadically supply orders from old customers, continue to digest inventory based, new orders are scarce, and the pressure on mine inventory has been large. Under this sales pressure, most of the mining enterprises and dealers make corresponding adjustments to the quotation of high-grade phosphorus ore, and the quotation of mining enterprises has also increased There is a fall.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 45th week of 2019 (11.11-11.15), there are 19 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are hydrochloric acid (19.18%), chloroform (12.55%) and R22 (4.80%) There are 27 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, with 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products decreased were epichlorohydrin (- 9.22%), aniline (- 7.50%), titanium dioxide (- 3.58%) This week’s average was 0.18%.

III. future forecast

Analysts of diammonium phosphate of business association think that the market price of diammonium raw materials is declining, and the international market is decadent, with few good news. After the phosphate compound fertilizer meeting, the market is not clear, dealers lack of confidence, waiting for the policy to come out. Now diammonium has been in the low position, and there is limited space to fall. It is expected that the market of DAP will be stable in the later period. It is suggested to pay attention to the market changes in real time.

Commodity index: on November 15, the polyaluminium chloride commodity index was 105.41, unchanged from yesterday, 3.30% lower than the highest point of 109.01 (2019-08-28) in the cycle, and 4.47% higher than the lowest point of 100.90 on April 09, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Price quotation: the main price of domestic polyaluminium chloride Market on November 1 was about 1966.67 yuan / ton, and the market price on November 15 was 1950 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 0.85% in the first half of the month. The lowest price in the half of the month was 1943.33 yuan / ton, and the highest price was 1966.67 yuan / ton, with a maximum amplitude of 1.19%. According to the monitoring data of the commodity by the business agency (100ppi. Com), the mainstream quotation in the domestic market of polyaluminium chloride from this month to now: the quotation of polyaluminium chloride solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) with tax is about 1850-2000 yuan / ton, and the quotation of liquid (industrial grade, content 10% – 12%) with tax is about 390-410 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: in November, the production of polyaluminium chloride manufacturers was normal, and the supply of goods was relatively stable; however, in addition to the sharp rise of polyaluminium price caused by the shutdown in the third quarter, the price of polyaluminium chloride did not rise in the fourth quarter, but fell instead, and the trend in the first half of the month was similar to “Z”. Among the upstream raw materials of polyaluminium chloride, hydrochloric acid in North China monitored by the business association has risen sharply this month, with an offer of 173.33 yuan / ton on the first day and 290 yuan / ton on the 15th. Downstream demand is stable this month, and the volume is sufficient.

Industry: since the end of July, this round of intermittent shutdown has basically ended, and the manufacturers have started to resume production. This round of shutdown cycle returns: 1. In late July, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of shutdown, which requires that: Based on the analysis of the city’s environmental pollution and future pollution weather, the Municipal Office of tackling key problems requires all the depth The management enterprises will stop production and management before acceptance, and can resume production after dispatching or acceptance according to the key work office. 2. Stop production again after resumption of production: it will resume production for ten days in August, and start to stop production again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the stop production is more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection is strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi are required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance. 3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal. 5. In the first half of October and November, the manufacturer’s production and supply were normal.

Future market forecast: according to the analysis of business agency, in the first half of November, the production of polyaluminium chloride manufacturers was normal, and the market supply was sufficient. Although the production cost was increased, the supply of market supply was large, and the market price of polyaluminium chloride was slightly reduced while it was stable. It is expected that the future market price is still stable.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the spot market price of PTA rebounded slightly. On November 14, the average market price was 4762 yuan / ton, up 0.02% compared with the previous trading day, down 29.08% year on year. The trading atmosphere is light, and the buyers are mainly traders and suppliers. The futures market was warm and volatile, and the main futures (2001) closed at 4706 yuan / ton, up 14 yuan / ton or 0.30% compared with the previous trading day. Daily trading volume increased by 316900 to 12811000, and position increased by 9462 to 1725200.

In terms of devices, on the 13th, Ningbo Taihua 1.2 million ton PTA device was shut down for maintenance due to failure, and it is planned to restart within 4-5 days. Shanghai Yadong Petrochemical Co., Ltd. plans to restart the 700000 ton PTA plant near November 27 after shutdown for maintenance. Up to now, the starting load of PTA is 91%.

Statistics of changes in domestic mainstream PTA plants unit: yuan / ton

Enterprise name capacity device dynamics

Jiaxing Petrochemical Co., Ltd. shut down on November 12, with planned maintenance of 2 weeks

Ningbo Taihua ＞ 120, Nov. 13, fault short stop

Yadong Petrochemical Co., Ltd. shut down for maintenance on November 13 and planned to restart on November 27

Pengwei Petrochemical Co., Ltd. load 50% on October 30, 1990

Chuanneng Chemical Co., Ltd. stopped short on November 1, with current load of 80%

Jialong Petrochemical will stop for maintenance on August 2 and restart on November 15

Maintenance in December is planned for hailun Petrochemical 120

The raw material market has formed a good support for PTA. The decline of crude oil inventory has pushed up the international oil price. As of November 13, the closing price of WTI main futures of international crude oil was $57.12/barrel, up $0.32/barrel compared with the previous day, and the closing price of Brent main futures was $62.37/barrel, up $0.31/barrel compared with the previous day. The closing price of PX market in Asia is 768 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 788 US dollars / ton CFR China, up 4 US dollars / ton from the previous day,

The downstream polyester production and sales are light, and the market is once again in a cold phase. The quotation of mainstream factories is basically stable. Due to the continuous loss of some specifications of products, some enterprises have increased 50 yuan / ton, including the poy150d / 48F report 6800-7200 yuan / ton. The comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is around 75%. Next spring and summer, some orders and regular customers’ orders will be stable all the year round. The price of some partial thick silk fabrics will be increased compared with the previous period. However, the overall domestic market demand is still weak, and the sentiment of material inquiry is still poor.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business club, thinks that at present, PTA operation is at a low level due to the cost support and the increase of plant maintenance. Under this support, PTA is expected to maintain shock consolidation in the short term.

On November 12, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 61.19, unchanged from yesterday, down 49.06% from 120.13 (2012-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 26.37% from 48.42, the lowest point on January 21, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

In recent years, the market price of phthalic anhydride in China has been falling continuously. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China continues to fall. The downstream factories maintain the rigid demand for purchasing. The factory inventory pressure increases, and the high-end transaction is blocked. Recently, the factory inventory has increased, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride has declined. In East China, the main flow of negotiation for neighboring process and naphthalene process is 6000-6500 yuan / ton, and 5700-5900 yuan / ton respectively; in North China, the main quotation for phthalic anhydride market is 5900-6200 yuan / ton, most of the manufacturers’ prices in the site are recalled, the downstream construction is not high, the procurement is based on demand, the wait-and-see mentality is strong, the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plant is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the site is sufficient, and the downstream demand of phthalic anhydride is also strong The demand for phthalic anhydride decreased and the price trend of phthalic anhydride continued to decline.

In the near future, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec is 6200 yuan / ton. Due to the restart of maintenance devices of some domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers, the supply of goods inside the site has increased, the import price of phthalic anhydride in the port area has declined, and the quotation has declined. In the near future, the price of phthalic acid in the port has declined, and the stock in the port is at a low level. The external quotation of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation, and the details are given, The price trend of phthalic anhydride market continued to decline due to the drop of upstream raw material phthalic acid price.

The downstream DOP price is slightly lower, the price of isooctanol is lower, and the DOP cost is lower. The price of DOP is fluctuating, the downstream demand of DOP is normal, the purchasing enthusiasm of customers is general, the downstream PVC market is fluctuating and declining, the high-end transaction of DOP is blocked, the mainstream transaction price of DOP market is slightly reduced to 7300-7600 yuan / ton, the downstream price trend is declining, and the upstream ox price remains low. Affected by the cost decline, it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will maintain a slightly lower trend in the later period.

I. price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of November 12, the average price of domestic ethanol market was 5460 yuan / ton, the price rose 1.11% month on month, and the price fell 1.62% year on year. The domestic ethanol market is mainly stable, and the market in some regions is strong.

II. Market analysis

Product: the domestic ethanol market is stable temporarily. The ethanol market in Northeast China operates stably for the time being, and large-scale factories execute contracts, while liquor companies wait and see; the ethanol market in Jilin Province transits stably for the time being, and large-scale factories execute contracts for the time being, and liquor companies temporarily hold prices; the ethanol market in East China maintains stable operation, and there are not many stocks in the market, and Su alcohol stops, and liquor companies have a stable mentality; the ethanol market in Shandong Province operates stably, and the demand is stable, and under the support of contracts, the mentality of large-scale factories is stable Stable; the ethanol market in Northern Jiangsu maintains stable operation, the actual single and rigid needs to be promoted and maintained, the supply declines, there are not many spot goods, and the mood of liquor enterprises is temporarily stable; the ethanol market in southern Jiangsu is in light and stable operation, the downstream demand continues to be light, and there is no significant fluctuation in negotiation; the ethanol market in Henan Province is temporarily stable operation, the on-site device shutdown arrangement, and the terminal stock demand is high. In the short term, the domestic ethanol market is temporarily stable, with local turbulence.

Industry chain: corn: the peak of corn production in Northeast China has not yet arrived, the demand for feed in the downstream is still weak, and the demand for corn starch is not strong in the peak season. The supply of corn market in the future will be gradually relaxed, a small number of enterprises will raise prices to supplement the stock, which is difficult to support the overall recovery of corn market prices, and the corn market will once again turn to the situation of strong supply and weak demand. It is expected that the domestic corn prices will continue as a whole in November Continue to adjust slightly.

Ethyl acetate: the domestic market of ethyl acetate is stable at the beginning of the week. Due to export and shipment, the inventory of the enterprise is tight. However, domestic demand is not good, and the market is expected to stabilize in the near future.

III. future forecast

Business alcohol analysts expect that in the short term, the domestic ethanol market may be at a high level, and the long-term market may be weak with the increase of supply.