According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from January 12th to 17th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market fell from 2739 yuan/ton to 2695 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.58% during the period, a month on month increase of 3.12%, and a year-on-year increase of 11.40%. The domestic methanol market rose and then fell back. At the beginning of the week, driven by the rise in crude oil prices, the domestic methanol market strengthened, but after reaching a high level, the market was generally buying gas. Later, with the increase in shipping costs, production companies offered discounts and shipped, causing the domestic methanol market price to fall.

As of the close on January 17th, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract 2505 for methanol futures opened at 2621 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2628 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2583 yuan/ton. It closed at 2604 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton or 1.33% from the previous trading day’s settlement, with a trading volume of 786645 lots and a holding volume of 739107 lots, with a daily increase of -30649.

On the cost side, although there has been a slight reduction in supply from production areas, the daily consumption of terminal power plants has been slow to rise, and high coal reserves have accumulated. The market’s enthusiasm for coal procurement is poor, which has suppressed the driving force of coal price increases. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.

Demand side, downstream formaldehyde: formaldehyde demand has significantly decreased; Downstream dimethyl ether: Increased demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream MTBE: Increased demand for methanol; Downstream chlorides: Increased demand for methanol; There is currently no plan to shut down or start the acetic acid plant, and there is not much change in demand. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.

On the supply side, the overall recovery exceeds the loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.

In terms of external markets, as of the close on January 16th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 361.00-362.00 US dollars per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is between 120.00 and 121.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 417.50-418.50 euros/ton, down 7 euros/ton.

Future forecast: Traditional downstream demand is expected to gradually decline due to the upcoming Spring Festival holiday, and MTO demand may not change significantly. Attention should be paid to fluctuations in freight rates and downstream stocking situation. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly experience narrow fluctuations.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of polyester filament has slightly increased this week,. On January 17th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang quoted POY (150D/48F) at 7100-7300 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 8300-8500 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 7500-7700 yuan/ton, with a shift in focus.

The extremely cold weather in Europe and America has stimulated fuel demand, and the United States has announced a new round of sanctions against Russia. Market concerns about supply have intensified, and US crude oil inventories have significantly decreased. International oil prices have risen sharply, and the cost side has shown strong performance. Coupled with the increase of filament maintenance and production reduction devices, market supply continues to decline. Enterprises have repeatedly raised prices in line with costs, and the market center of gravity has fluctuated upwards. However, due to downstream enterprises gradually stopping for holidays and having sufficient stock in the early stage, the enthusiasm for entering the market is poor, and the level of filament production and sales data is weak. This week, the average industry operating rate of polyester filament was about 83.42%. Multiple filament devices in the filament market were shut down for maintenance, resulting in a significant decline in market operating rate. As of this Thursday, POY inventory is around 4-6 days, FDY inventory is around 10-13 days, and DTY inventory is around 15-19 days.

The demand side is difficult to sustain, but cost and supply side support still exist. There is no risk of a decline in the filament market price. Next week is the last week before the Spring Festival holiday, when more workers will return home and logistics shutdowns will increase. It is expected that on-site trading will almost come to a standstill, and downstream operating rates will drop to freezing point. The demand side is difficult to sustain, but cost and supply side support still exist, and there is no risk of price decline in the filament market.

Overall, it is expected that the polyester filament market will operate with a strong cost logic next week, with limited fluctuations. The price range for POY150D/48F polyester filament in Zhejiang region is expected to be 7300-7400 yuan/ton.

According to the analysis system of Business Society, the price at the beginning of 2024 was 798 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of 2024 was 827 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.63%. The highest point of the annual price occurred on October 25th, at a price of 1041 yuan/ton, and the lowest point of the annual price occurred on January 12th, at a price of 782 yuan/ton, with a maximum amplitude of 33.12% throughout the year.

A brief review of the price trend of caustic soda in 2024 shows that the price of 32 liquid caustic soda did not fluctuate significantly in the first three quarters of 2024, and the price in the fourth quarter was like a roller coaster. From the first quarter to the third quarter of 2024, the price of caustic soda will remain around 750-850 yuan/ton. At this stage, there will be no maintenance of the caustic soda unit, and downstream demand will mostly be purchased on demand, which is more in line with the trend of caustic soda prices.

In the fourth quarter, after entering October, the price of caustic soda began to fluctuate. The price of caustic soda first rose and then fell. At the beginning of October, the average market price of caustic soda was around 833 yuan/ton, and then in mid to late October, the average market price of caustic soda was 937 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 12.48%. Afterwards, caustic soda entered a downward channel, and as of the end of the year, the average market price of caustic soda was around 800 yuan/ton. The specific reasons are as follows: one is due to the maintenance of the caustic soda unit, the supply is tight, but downstream demand has increased to some extent, resulting in an increase in caustic soda prices. However, after entering December, the price of caustic soda has declined mainly due to sufficient supply and weak demand for alumina in the main production areas, which has led to the continuous reduction of prices in Shandong and other regions, resulting in a consolidation of the decline.

From the annual price comparison chart of caustic soda, it can be seen that the highest historical price of caustic soda occurred around mid November 2021, with a price of around 1820 yuan/ton. The highest price in 2024 is around 1041 yuan/ton. The highest point of caustic soda prices this year did not break through historical highs. From the annual price comparison chart of caustic soda, it can be seen that in 2024, the price increased by July and decreased by 5 months. The largest increase was in October, reaching 24.49%, and the largest decrease was in December, reaching 19%.

The trend of caustic soda and soda ash is basically the same. The caustic soda fluctuated within the first three quarters, rising in the fourth quarter and then falling. In the first three quarters, the price fluctuated around 3300-3500 yuan/ton, and in the later four quarters, the price rose and then fell. The main reason for the increase in the fourth quarter is the maintenance of caustic soda manufacturers, which has led to an increase in downstream demand and a rise in caustic soda prices. However, with the increase in supply in the later period, downstream demand has weakened and caustic soda prices have declined.

Market forecast: supply side

In 2024, China’s caustic soda production capacity will be 48.45 million tons, an increase of 3.01% compared to the previous period. Affected by the increase in production capacity, the production of caustic soda from January to November has significantly increased compared to the same period last year. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the domestic production of caustic soda from January to November 2024 was 39.81 million tons, an increase of 6.82% compared to the same period last year at a regular price of 2.54 million tons. The expected production in 2024 is 42 million tons.

The effective production capacity of caustic soda is expected to reach 52.23 million tons by 2025, with an estimated capacity growth rate of 7.16%. Overall, the caustic soda industry is still in a capacity expansion cycle.

The data predicts that the domestic consumption of caustic soda in 2024 will be 38.2332 million tons, an increase of 1.9412 million tons compared to last year. In 2025, downstream production capacity such as alumina, pulp, and new energy will be released, and the demand for caustic soda will still increase. In 2025, the alumina industry is expected to experience a peak in production, with a planned production capacity of 12.8 million tons, equivalent to an increase in demand for caustic soda of approximately 1.92 million tons.

Downstream demand aspect

There are many downstream consumption areas for caustic soda, mainly including alumina, printing and dyeing chemical fibers, chemical industry, light industry, papermaking, petroleum, etc. Among them, alumina is the largest consumption area, accounting for nearly 32%; Printing and dyeing chemical fiber accounts for 17%, while chemical industry accounts for 14%, ranking second and third respectively. The other industries are relatively scattered, accounting for less than 10%. In 2024, the price of alumina will gradually strengthen, supporting the rise in caustic soda prices in the fourth quarter of the year. In 2024, 7.05 million tons of domestic alumina will be put into production, with an increase of 550000 tons in the first quarter, 3.65 million tons in the second quarter, 1.5 million tons in the third quarter, and a planned increase of 1.35 million tons in the fourth quarter. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the cumulative domestic production of alumina from January to November 2024 was 78.09 million tons, an increase of 2.49 million tons or 3.3% compared to the same period last year. The increase in non aluminum demand is limited, and the pulp market will continue to be sluggish in 2024, with 2.3 million tons of new production capacity put into operation, equivalent to approximately 320000 tons of caustic soda demand. In 2025, the demand for pulp converted to caustic soda will increase by about 180000 tons. From the perspective of the textile industry, the operating rate of adhesive short fiber enterprises will be relatively high in 2024, and the new energy industry will also be the main growth point of caustic soda demand in 2024. In 2025, the country will continue to provide strong support for the new energy industry, which will also provide support for caustic soda demand.

Import and export aspects

China is a net exporter of caustic soda, and overall its dependence on imports and exports is not high. For the domestic market, imports and exports are only one of the ways to balance supply and demand. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the import volume of caustic soda from January to November 2024 was 6259 tons, the export volume of caustic soda from January to November 2024 was 2.3 million tons, and the export volume in 2024 was about 3 million tons.

Summary:

On the supply side, production capacity continues to grow, presenting an overall situation of loose supply. On the demand side: According to the 2025 production capacity data of downstream alumina, there is a production capacity of over 12.8 million tons that needs to be put into operation, and there is a certain increase in downstream demand for caustic soda. In terms of import and export, by 2025, there will be new production of overseas alumina (4-5 million tons). It is expected that caustic soda exports will increase by 2025. In 2025, we will usher in a dual growth pattern. The demand is mostly concentrated in the first half of the year, while the supply is concentrated in the second half. Therefore, the price of caustic soda may rise in the first half of the year, and the price in the first half of the year may be better than in the second half. The overall caustic soda concentration in 2025 may be higher than that in 2024.

The domestic phenol market has continued to rise, with major mainstream markets increasing by around 150-250 yuan/ton during the week. Factories have also actively increased their prices, with Yangzhou Shiyou, Blue Star Harbin, Lihua Yiwei Yuan, and Longjiang Chemical raising their quotes.

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, the domestic phenol market price was 7845 yuan/ton on January 14th, with a 2.89% increase this week.

At present, the high cost and average price of phenol, coupled with tight spot supply, support market growth. Terminal enterprises are slightly cautious in procurement, but there has been a significant increase in on-site inquiries. Some enterprises are also actively preparing for pre holiday stocking. This week, the main demand is still for essential goods, and there may be inventory demand from terminal factories in the second half of the month, with trading volume to be released. As of the 14th, the phenol offers in various mainstream markets across the country are as follows:

Region/ Quotation on the 14th/ Zhou’s ups and downs

East China region/ 7780./ 250

Shandong region/ 7800./ 200

Surrounding areas of Yanshan Mountain/ 7800./ 200

South China region/ 7900./ 250

From the perspective of cost, average price, and supply and demand fundamentals, phenol prices are cautious. Next week, we need to focus on the demand situation and pay attention to the market’s actual order negotiations.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of January 14th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 4260 yuan/ton. Recently, DMF prices have been mainly strong, with a narrow upward trend, and the overall market supply and demand are balanced.

2、 Market analysis

DMF prices remain stable and are approaching the end of the year. Downstream demand for DMF is average, and the overall market is running slowly, with rigid procurement as the main focus and high inventory levels. The overall market is mainly fluctuating, with a slight shift in focus.

In terms of cost, there is a clear contradiction between methanol supply and demand, with methanol prices operating in a narrow and strong range, resulting in an increase in operating rates. Downstream losses have intensified, and the load of methanol plants has been affected. The decline in international methanol supply has driven up domestic methanol prices, resulting in sluggish downstream consumption of methanol and slow overall market output.

3、 Future forecast

DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the DMF market is expected to operate narrowly and strongly in the short term, with limited upward potential.

Price Trends in 2024

According to data from Shengyi Society, the average market price of ammonium sulfate on January 1st was 833 yuan/ton, and on December 31st it was 826 yuan/ton. In 2024, the domestic ammonium sulfate market fell by 0.80% for the whole year. The highest value of ammonium sulfate this year was 1043 yuan/ton on June 14th, and the lowest value was 756 yuan/ton on April 1st.

Market Analysis for 2024

In 2024, the domestic ammonium sulfate market will experience a period of initial growth followed by a period of fluctuation.

The market trend of ammonium sulfate in the first half of 2024 was volatile and dominated by the market. The market price of ammonium sulfate increased from January to February. The inquiry volume in the ammonium sulfate market has increased, and the trading atmosphere has improved. Ammonium sulfate manufacturers are mainly raising prices, distributors are actively shipping, and the market has a strong bullish mentality. The market price of ammonium sulfate fell in March. The continuous weakening of urea prices, coupled with poor export conditions, is bearish on the domestic ammonium sulfate market. The price of ammonium sulfate increased significantly from April to June. The demand for downstream rare earths has increased, and the trading atmosphere has improved, resulting in an increase in the bidding price of ammonium sulfate. The rise in international market prices is favorable for the domestic ammonium sulfate market.

The ammonium sulfate market is expected to weaken and decline in the second half of 2024. The market price of ammonium sulfate continued to decline from July to November. The international market demand did not meet expectations, coupled with the decline in urea prices, which is bearish for the domestic ammonium sulfate market. The trading atmosphere in the ammonium sulfate market is poor, with weak market transactions and downstream price cutting purchases, with mostly low-priced transactions. The price of ammonium sulfate slightly rebounded in November and December. Downstream inquiries have increased, leading to an increase in market trading volume.

According to the K-bar chart of 2024, it can be seen that the maximum annual increase in ammonium sulfate in 2024 was in June, with an increase of 9.92%. The largest decline of the year was in March, with a decrease of 14.5%.

Market forecast after 2025

Supply situation

In recent years, the production capacity and output of ammonium sulfate in China have maintained a growing trend. In 2024, it is expected that the production capacity of domestic grade ammonium sulfate will increase by 2.12 million tons, and the production capacity of coking grade ammonium sulfate will increase by about 200000 tons. It is expected that the total production capacity of ammonium sulfate will reach around 27.94 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%. The total output is expected to reach 18.6 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8%. From 2023 to 2025, there are approximately 34 planned ammonium sulfate plants in China, with a total production capacity of 4.4 million tons per year, including 3.87 million tons of caprolactam grade production capacity and 530000 tons of coking grade production capacity. It is expected that the production capacity and output of ammonium sulfate in China will continue to increase in 2025.

Export situation

From January to November 2024, the total export volume of ammonium sulfate in China reached 15.35 million tons, an increase of 19.54% year-on-year, accounting for 52.44% of the total export volume of fertilizers. The export volume of ammonium sulfate for the whole year of 2024 is expected to exceed 16 million tons. From January to November 2024, China’s main exporters of ammonium sulfate are Brazil, Myanmar, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia and Türkiye. The main export directions are South America and Southeast Asia. China exports the largest amount of ammonium sulfate to Brazil, reaching 5.815 million tons from January to November 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22.59%, accounting for 37.88% of the total export volume. Due to the increasing demand for ammonium sulfate in foreign markets, the price of ammonium sulfate in China is relatively advantageous, coupled with the release of ammonium sulfate production capacity in China. It is expected that the export volume of ammonium sulfate will reach a new high in 2025.

Demand situation

Due to the sustained growth in global agricultural demand, the demand for ammonium sulfate as a nitrogen fertilizer continues to increase, especially in developing countries. In recent years, the market size of ammonium sulfate in China has been continuously increasing, and agricultural production in China is still growing, resulting in a continuous increase in demand for ammonium sulfate. The increasing demand for efficient fertilizers in the agricultural sector, coupled with the expansion of industrial application areas, as well as the promotion of national agricultural support policies and the improvement of environmental protection requirements, is expected to continue to rise in the demand for ammonium sulfate both domestically and internationally by 2025.

summary

In summary, the domestic ammonium sulfate market is expected to experience mixed ups and downs in 2024, with an overall volatile operation. With the rapid growth of agricultural demand in China, the increase in the size of the ammonium sulfate market, and the strengthening of environmental regulations and policies, the production capacity and processes of ammonium sulfate in China are constantly improving and innovating, promoting the development of the ammonium sulfate industry towards a more environmentally friendly and efficient direction. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate industry will continue to maintain its growth momentum in 2025, with a stable and positive market situation, and production capacity, output, and export volume will continue to increase.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from January 2nd to 10th, MTBE prices rose from 5655 yuan/ton to 5950 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 5.22% during the period, a month on month increase of 4.16%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.29%. The domestic MTBE market initially suppressed and then rose, with manufacturers mainly offering narrow discounts in the early stage. With the increase in gasoline shipping orders, the MTBE market has opened up an upward trend, and prices have risen significantly. Some large manufacturers have temporarily stopped production, and resource supply has tightened. At the same time, there is also demand that has improved, which has driven prices to actively rise under the dual forces of supply and demand.

In terms of cost and crude oil, the rise in international oil prices is mainly due to the market’s continued expectation of improved demand in Asia, some oil producing countries facing new sanctions from the West, and the combination of cold weather in the United States boosting heating demand. As of January 9th, the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $76.92 per barrel, an increase of $0.76 or 1.0%.

On the demand side, international crude oil futures have fluctuated downwards, and the refined oil market has stopped rising and fallen. Refineries have lowered prices to promote sales, but the poor performance of terminal demand has suppressed the digestion of social unit inventory. The pace of mid to downstream merchants entering the market for procurement has slowed down, and market transactions are mainly small orders. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by bearish factors.

Supply side: Overall, the operating rate of the equipment has decreased. The short-term domestic MTBE supply is affected by favorable factors.

As of the close on January 9th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $6.17/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $725.28-727.28/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market has increased by $8/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB ARA closing at $880.49-880.99/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by 6.41 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at 741.36-741.72 US dollars/ton (209.33-209.43 US cents/gallon).

There is a high possibility that the gasoline market will continue to operate strongly in the future, which is expected to provide bottom support for the MTBE market. Short term resource supply will increase, and MTBE analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the domestic MTBE market will remain relatively strong.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on January 9th, the domestic cyclohexanone market price reference was 8575 yuan/ton. Compared with the reference price of 8700 yuan/ton on January 5th before the holiday, the price decreased by 125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.44%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that this week (1.5-1.9), the domestic cyclohexanone market showed a weak downward trend, and the focus of cyclohexanone market negotiations shifted narrowly downwards. On January 9th, the market price of cyclohexanone in Shandong, China was around 8550-8700 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 50-150 yuan/ton during the week.

In terms of supply and demand: Currently, the spot supply of cyclohexanone is relatively stable, and the pressure on the supply side is still controllable. The downstream solvent and chemical fiber markets are mainly in urgent need of goods.

In terms of cost: This week, the pure benzene market on the cost side fluctuated at a relatively high level, providing stable cost support for cyclohexanone.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market is cautious, and there is a certain wait-and-see sentiment in the market. The mentality of industry players is not good, and the transmission performance between supply and demand is average. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly be weak and operated, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and rose in January

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 7th, the DOP price was 8513.75 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 3.49% compared to the DOP price of 8226.25 yuan/ton on January 1st. The profit margin of plasticizer DOP is high, plasticizer enterprises are actively operating, downstream plasticizer enterprises have high operating rates, and plasticizer supply is sufficient. After the New Year’s Day holiday and with manufacturers replenishing their inventory before the Spring Festival, there was a brief increase in demand for plasticizers. As a result, the supply of plasticizer DOP stabilized and demand increased, leading to fluctuating prices of plasticizer DOP.

Raw material prices fluctuate and rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 7th, the price of isooctanol was 8033.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 5.70% compared to the price of 7600 yuan/ton on January 1st. In January, the equipment production of isooctanol enterprises remained stable. After the New Year’s Day holiday, inventory was replenished, and downstream manufacturers stocked up before the Spring Festival, resulting in a brief increase in demand. As a result, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose in January.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol has risen, the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and stabilized, and the cost of plasticizer DOP has increased; In terms of demand, restocking and stocking up have led to an increase in demand for plasticizers; On the supply side, plasticizer companies have high profits, are actively operating, and there is an oversupply of plasticizer companies. In the future, the price of raw material isooctanol will rise, and the cost of plasticizers will increase; In addition, with the double increase in supply and demand, it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and stabilize.

Introduction: Ethanol, commonly known as alcohol, can be divided into edible alcohol and industrial alcohol according to production methods. Edible alcohol is a product obtained by fermenting food and yeast in a fermentation tank, filtering, and distilling. It is usually an aqueous solution of ethanol and does not contain toxic benzene and methanol to the human body. Industrial alcohol is ethanol obtained by cracking long-chain organic compounds in petroleum under catalyst and high temperature conditions. In order to distinguish it from edible alcohol, industrial alcohol contains a certain amount of organic toxic substances such as methanol, which are also clearly marked and explained on the outer packaging. The ethanol specification monitored by Business Society is food grade 95% ethanol.

Firstly, let’s review the trend of the ethanol market in 2024. The domestic ethanol market prices remained in a range of fluctuations in 2024, with a weak downward trend in the first quarter. Although the Spring Festival holiday was interspersed during this period, downstream market demand did not recover as expected. Under the constraints of demand, the ethanol market showed a weak and volatile trend; In the second quarter, the market was mostly in a stalemate state, and domestic regional quotations showed a range oscillation trend; Although the third quarter was a golden September and silver October, the demand performance was poor, and the domestic ethanol market continued to be weak. As of the end of the year, the domestic ethanol market has been weakening, but there are still few obvious positive factors supporting it in the market.

In recent years, ethanol has become a necessity in people’s daily lives as the main disinfectant, and the proportion of medical alcohol has increased significantly, becoming one of the main uses of ethanol. At present, there is sufficient supply of medical alcohol to meet people’s living needs, and prices are rarely too high in a short period of time due to insufficient supply.

Let’s take a closer look at the domestic ethanol market trend in 2024:

The domestic ethanol market experienced a weak downward trend in the first quarter. At the beginning of the quarter, large factories in Northeast China had sufficient supply and a positive attitude towards shipment. Under inventory pressure, quotations continued to weaken, and the price of corn ethanol in Henan province declined due to poor shipment. During the Spring Festival period, large factories in Northeast China maintained normal production, and shipments before the Spring Festival were average. Enterprises had inventory and the snowfall weather affected the market prices of shipments, which continued to weaken. After the end of the Spring Festival, downstream terminal operators carried out post holiday restocking, but overall supply was sufficient, with some large factories actively selling and prices weakening. At the end of the quarter, the domestic ethanol market prices remained within a range of fluctuations. Due to an increase in procurement volume, enterprise quotations rose, resulting in limited transactions and a decline in prices. Henan corn ethanol fluctuates significantly, with prices falling after a short period of vehicles in front of the door, and prices rising when orders increase and vehicles increase.

The domestic ethanol market maintained range bound fluctuations in the second quarter. At the beginning of the quarter, there was sufficient inventory, and the market price weakened due to shipping pressure from the shipper. Before the May Day holiday, there was a decrease in supply within the market, coupled with pre holiday stocking, resulting in a state of supply-demand balance. Fuel ethanol continues to rise, mainly supported by main procurement and maintenance of the Laha fuel line. By the end of May, the major factory maintenance was completed, and the Hongzhan Jixian and Laha factories were restarted, resulting in a rebound in waterless production and a slight decline in waterless prices. At the end of the quarter, fuel ethanol showed a slight decline after a strong operation. With the end of the college entrance examination and an increase in summer travel, demand remained strong. Supported by the demand side, fuel ethanol operated steadily, moderately, and strongly. However, due to the continuous rise in freight costs, the price increase of fuel ethanol in the market was limited. Supply has increased, and downstream enterprises in the terminal have maintained on-demand procurement. Under the game of supply and demand, market prices have slightly fallen. After the price reduction, the market supply and demand maintain a tight balance and overall stability. There is a weak expectation in the market under the situation of supply side recovery.

The domestic ethanol market continued to be weak in the third quarter, with a lack of strong support within the market. At the beginning of the quarter, market prices began to decline in East China, and the downward trend in procurement prices had a negative impact on factory quotations. Based on cost support, the decline was limited; The rise and fall in the Henan region were divided, and the on-site thick source equipment was temporarily shut down, boosting the intention of holders to raise prices. However, after the price rose, transactions were limited, and prices began to fall when the equipment resumed. As of August, the demand side has not shown any improvement. The Northeast region is experiencing a weak downward trend, with high inventory levels in the equipment recovery area. The main focus is on digesting previous orders and contracts, and there is room for negotiation with some large customers. At the end of the quarter, during the double festival replenishment cycle, the domestic ethanol market experienced ups and downs. The spot supply in the Northeast region has slightly decreased, coupled with the support of previous order contracts, boosting market sentiment; The demand performance in the East China region is poor, coupled with the impact of the Northeast’s supply of goods, resulting in weak market prices. The raw material corn has experienced a significant decline due to the launch of new grains, which has formed a clear negative impact on ethanol prices. In addition, the demand before and after the Double Festival was lower than expected, and the market price is weak and difficult to change.

The domestic ethanol market maintained range bound fluctuations in the fourth quarter. During the National Day holiday, on-site shipments were average, putting pressure on cargo holders and making it difficult to find favorable factors to support demand. After the National Day holiday, downstream demand at the terminal continued to be weak, and the supply-demand contradiction was difficult to improve. The quotations of major factories in various regions began to weaken. Until the end of the year, the ethanol market continued to be weak, with prices for production companies falling repeatedly.

In the short term, in winter, some enterprises in Northeast China must keep heating and power plants in operation, and overall operation should remain high; Looking at 2025, there are still plans to put devices into the market. From the perspective of production time, they are mostly concentrated in the second half of the year, and with the stable operation of the devices in the early stage, there may be an increasing trend of supply or inventory in the later stage.

Overall, it is expected that the domestic ethanol market will continue to fluctuate within a certain range in 2025, and there may be downward space in the weak demand side, waiting for obvious favorable factors to support it in the market. In the later stage, it is necessary to closely monitor the fluctuations in raw material prices, the operation of on-site equipment, and the follow-up of downstream demand.