According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8755 yuan/ton on November 28th, and the average price was 8783 yuan/ton on December 6th, with a price increase of 0.32% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 10816 yuan/ton on November 28th, and the average price was 10816 yuan/ton on December 6th, with prices remaining unchanged during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of HDPE (2426H) was 8757 yuan/ton on November 28th, and the average price was 8562 yuan/ton on December 6th, with a price drop of 0.15% during this period.

Recently, the trend of polyethylene has fluctuated, with narrow adjustments being the main focus. On the supply side, according to data statistics, the maintenance loss of polyethylene plants during the (11.29-12.5) cycle was around 98400 tons, a slight increase of about 1900 tons compared to last week. In December, new production capacity will be gradually put into operation, and there are expectations of an increase in the supply side. Downstream demand is at the end of the peak season, with strong market demand, but downstream resistance to high prices has slowed down transactions; On the cost side, international oil prices have fallen due to the unexpected increase in US refined oil inventories, causing market concerns that demand remains weak.

On December 6th, the polyethylene L2501 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange opened at 8366 yuan and closed at 8351 yuan, a decrease of 36 yuan, with a maximum of 8380 yuan and a minimum of 8300 yuan, a decrease of 0.43%. Recently, futures have weakened, dragging down the spot market.

New production capacity will be added in December; In addition, there are no plans to stop for maintenance next week, which is expected to reduce maintenance losses and increase supply expectations; Entering December, the demand for greenhouse film is coming to an end, with a cumulative decrease in orders, and downstream production rates may decrease; It is expected that polyethylene will mainly experience a weak and fluctuating trend.

Product Name: Pure Benzene

Latest price: On December 5th, the average market price was 7636.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.09% from the previous trading day.

Analysis: Today’s domestic pure benzene market price performance is deadlocked, and the trading atmosphere in the market is still acceptable. Sinopec’s refineries in East and South China have stable prices for pure benzene, with a price of 7500 yuan/ton. Shandong’s local refining industry focuses on stability, with some companies experiencing slight price reductions and average low-priced shipments on site. International crude oil futures have fallen, affecting confidence in the pure benzene market. It is expected that the pure benzene market will remain stable and stable in the short term, with actual transactions subject to negotiation.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda has been weak this month, with an average market price of 1580 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and around 1548 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 2.03% and a year-on-year decrease of 34.18%. On November 28th, the baking soda commodity index was 102.74, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 56.44% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (2021-11-10), and an increase of 16.39% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running weakly, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is consolidating and operating. The factory price of baking soda in Henan region is around 1400-1550 yuan/ton. Due to downstream demand for purchasing, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Raw materials: According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of soda ash fell in November. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of light soda ash was 1584 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was around 1556 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.77% and a decrease of 36.23% compared to the same period last year.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been consolidating recently, with a general trend in the upstream raw material soda ash market. Downstream areas of baking soda, such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food, have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 2, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 7333 yuan/ton. Compared with November 25 (reference price of n-butanol was 7400 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.90%.

Recently (11.24-12.02), the overall market situation of n-butanol in Shandong region of China has been stable with narrow fluctuations. At the beginning of the week, the n-butanol market saw a slight increase. During the week, the market remained stable and consolidated. As the weekend approaches, some regions in China have a strong willingness to ship n-butanol in the market, resulting in a narrow reduction of n-butanol shipment prices by 50-100 yuan/ton. On December 2nd, the reference price for n-butanol market in Shandong region of China was around 7300-7400 yuan/ton.

Supply side: Currently, some n-butanol units have resumed operation, resulting in an overall increase in supply within the site. The support provided by the supply side to the market is weak.

In terms of demand: At the end of the month, downstream demand for n-butanol showed periodic procurement. Although demand increased, there was still an increase in supply. Therefore, at the end of the month, the overall market showed a dual increase in supply and demand, with narrow fluctuations in the market.

Market price situation of n-butanol

Region/ Product/ December 2nd

Shandong region/ N-butanol/ Around 7300-7400 yuan/ton

North China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7300-7400 yuan/ton

South China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7650-7750 yuan/ton

East China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7550-7650 yuan/ton

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market is mild, and the overall supply and demand transmission in the market is weak. Business Society’s n-butanol data analyst predicts that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mainly operate with large stability and small movements, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

In November, the market price of polyester filament fell. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on the 30th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province quoted POY (150D/48F) at 6800-7200 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 8100-8500 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 7100-7400 yuan/ton.

Macroscopically, the news of Iran’s planned military action against Israel at the beginning of the month, coupled with OPEC+’s decision to postpone oil production increases, together constitute favorable factors driving international oil prices to rise for several consecutive days. The strengthening of the cost side has supported the rise in oil prices, however, downstream market demand has not been boosted accordingly, and the demand for filament products appears particularly weak. With the continuous accumulation of filament inventory, enterprises have adopted price reduction and promotion strategies to alleviate inventory pressure, resulting in a decline in market transaction prices. But downstream textile enterprises have relatively abundant raw silk inventory, and their purchasing willingness is not strong. Subsequently, after Trump won the US presidential election, the US dollar index rose significantly, while OPEC lowered its crude oil demand forecast in its monthly report, leading to a volatile downward trend in international oil prices. The raw material market has subsequently weakened, and cost support has weakened, further affecting the confidence of industry insiders. As a result, most filament enterprises have had to increase their promotional efforts again, and the focus of market negotiations has shifted downwards again. Although some downstream users have made moderate purchases during the low price period and the production and sales situation has improved, overall, due to the continued support from the cost side, while terminal and downstream demand has shrunk, the operating rate of weaving machines has decreased.

Since November, the domestic supply of PTA has increased, with a total of over 10 million tons of PTA plants being restarted one after another, and the current industry operating rate is close to 90%. The new PTA production capacity of 2.7 million tons in the East China region is also about to be put into operation, and the PTA supply is still abundant, which is bearish on spot prices. As of November 27th, the average market price in East China was 4783 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.39% from the beginning of the month.

On the supply side: This month, the average operating rate of polyester filament enterprises remained at a high level of about 90.76%. During this period, new production equipment was put into operation in both Xiaoshan and Jiaxing, but at the same time, some equipment underwent a process of production reduction, maintenance, and restart, which slightly increased the overall operating rate of the filament market. The dominant order for downstream clothing this month is still winter warm fabrics. Due to abnormally high temperatures in many areas in the early stage, sales of end clothing have been sluggish, and the number of downstream orders has shown a downward trend compared to the previous period. This has led to a continuous increase in finished product inventory for textile enterprises, fierce price competition in the fabric market, compressed profit margins for orders, and extended payment terms, making it more difficult for enterprises to collect payments and significantly increasing financial pressure.

Although temperatures have started to decline in various regions at present, feedback from the end market is relatively lagging behind. Textile enterprises are mainly digesting inventory, reducing production enthusiasm and increasing the phenomenon of reducing production and burden. The operating rate is also showing a gradual downward trend. Demand remains weak. Downstream demand for essential procurement, the production and sales situation of the filament market continues to be under pressure, only slightly improving during promotional activities. Compared to the same period last month, inventory levels have increased. At present, POY’s inventory is approximately between 15 and 20 days, FDY’s inventory is approximately 18 to 23 days, and DTY’s inventory is around 22 to 26 days.

Overall, there are expectations of weakened cost demand, and the prices in the filament market may continue to decline. However, considering the reduced supply expectations in the filament market and the continued price support mentality of mainstream manufacturers, the downward space is relatively limited. Therefore, we need to pay attention to the trend of filament market production in the future,

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PP market fluctuated and rose in late November, with prices of some brand products increasing. As of November 28th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7621.43 yuan/ton, a rise or fall of+0.57% compared to the price level at the beginning of November.

Price trend

In terms of raw materials:

In terms of international crude oil, although overall consumption has led to price fluctuations and a decline, the related geopolitical situation has suddenly become tense, and expectations for price fluctuations to rise are still high. The upstream driving force of PP in the far end is still acceptable. In terms of propylene, there has been an increase in domestic supply and the news of imported goods entering the port for fermentation. At the same time, propylene has already risen to a high level in the early stage, and buyers are becoming more cautious in their operations, resulting in price stagnation and consolidation. The upstream decline of propane has stabilized, market trading is average, and the cost of PDH production direction is stabilizing. Overall, in late November, PP raw materials were either stable or fluctuating, with average support on the cost side.

Supply side:

In late November, the load level of domestic PP enterprises continued the downward trend from the previous period. Earlier this month, Zhejiang Petrochemical and Guangzhou Petrochemical, as well as Donghua Energy and CNOOC Shell, entered the plant maintenance plan in mid month. Recently, Hebei Haiwei and Lianhong Xinke production lines have undergone load reduction maintenance, reducing the overall industry load from 75% at the beginning of the month to below 68% at present. Domestic PP shipments have contracted significantly, while inventory levels have decreased by about 20000 tons to 680000 tons. Although the supply is still abundant, some sources of goods have experienced structural contraction. Overall, the supply side provides strong support for PP spot prices.

In terms of demand:

In late November, the demand for PP remained stable with some weakness. Affected by seasonality, some industry enterprises have experienced a decline in production, and the consumption level of woven bags such as fertilizers and cement has narrowly declined, resulting in a cooling of their willingness to hold positions; The consumption of pipes in the early stage has slightly rebounded due to the stimulus of real estate related policies, and the positive effects have gradually dissipated recently; The consumption of BOPP film enterprises is strong, and the raw material reserves of terminal enterprises are generally stable with some increase. Overall, there are narrow fluctuations in various aspects of the demand side, which are generally weak and stable.

Future forecast

In late November, the domestic PP market prices fluctuated and rose narrowly. Fundamentally speaking, the overall performance of upstream raw materials in supporting PP is average. However, the supply side maintenance continued to be released within the month, and there was a tight supply situation in some parts of the market. However, according to consumer feedback, industry players are cautious about future terminal consumption and are concerned about the offline production of new capacity at the end of the year. Trading on the market is average and there has been no large-scale price chasing. In the short term, it is expected that PP prices will remain stable with some increase.

Product Name: Pure Benzene

Latest price: On November 27th, the average market price was 7336.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.47% from the previous trading day.

Analysis: Today, the price of pure benzene in the domestic market has slightly decreased, and the trading atmosphere in the market is still acceptable. Shandong’s local refining industry has slightly lowered its prices according to the market trend, and the price of pure benzene in the East China market has also slightly declined, with average low-priced shipments in the market. At present, the decline in geopolitical risks, coupled with the strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate, has led to a decline in international crude oil futures, affecting confidence in the pure benzene market. It is expected that the pure benzene market will remain stable and stable in the short term, with actual transactions subject to negotiation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 26, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 7400 yuan/ton. Compared with November 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 6900 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 500 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.25%.

In November, the overall market situation of n-butanol in Shandong region of China showed a fluctuating upward trend. In the first ten days, some units in the n-butanol plant were temporarily shut down for maintenance, resulting in a reduction in on-site supply. Coupled with downstream demand for phased stocking, the center of gravity of n-butanol gradually approached a high level under the dual support of supply and demand. On November 15th, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong region was around 7500-7700 yuan/ton, with a 9.42% increase in the first half of the year.

In the later stage, the supply side equipment in the n-butanol field resumed operation and some new production capacity was put into operation. The overall supply of n-butanol in the market increased, and the support provided by the loose supply side weakened. The center of gravity of the n-butanol market began to shift downwards, and the overall price was lowered by 100-200 yuan/ton. On November 21st, the n-butanol market price in Shandong region was around 7300 yuan/ton.

As the end of the month approached, the n-butanol on-site equipment encountered maintenance and parking, and the on-site supply tightened again. The daily supply of n-butanol decreased by about 1100 tons, and the tight supply side once again supported the upward trend of the market. Starting from the 22nd, the focus of the n-butanol market has been adjusted upwards again. As of November 26th, the reference price of n-butanol in the domestic Shandong region is around 7400 yuan/ton.

Market price situation of n-butanol

Region/ Product/ November 26th

Shandong region/ N-butanol/ Around 7400-7500 yuan/ton

North China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7300-7400 yuan/ton

South China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7650-7750 yuan/ton

East China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7550-7650 yuan/ton

Market analysis in the future

At present, although there are still production cuts and equipment under maintenance in the n-butanol field, the downstream demand for n-butanol is showing signs of weakening, with demand mainly continuing to be driven by essential purchases. In addition, after the completion of subsequent decoration and maintenance, the tight supply of n-butanol is expected to ease, and the transmission between supply and demand is expected to be weak. Therefore, the n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will continue to have moderate upward momentum, with narrow range adjustments in the market. Specific changes in supply and demand news need to be closely monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market price has recently stopped falling and stabilized. As of November 22, the average market price in East China was 4832 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.76% from November 18.

Recently, the fundamental changes in PTA have been limited, with prices mainly driven by costs. International crude oil prices have shifted upwards due to the escalation of the conflict between a European country and Ukraine, the decline in the US dollar exchange rate, and the shift in the center of gravity of crude oil prices. As of November 21st, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.10 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.23 per barrel.

From the perspective of its own supply, PTA has started to accumulate inventory, with social inventory estimated at around 3.86 million tons. At present, 3 million tons of PTA plants in East China, including 1.5 million tons and 2.5 million tons of PTA plants, 4.5 million tons in South China, and 1.2 million tons in Northwest China, will be restarted and their load will be increased gradually. The current PTA operating rate in China is around 86%, and it will further increase in the future, with ample supply in the spot market.

The demand side polyester production is around 88%, and there are currently no plans for large-scale polyester plant maintenance or restart. Due to the seasonal off-season, it is difficult to significantly increase production in the future, and PTA is mainly driven by essential needs. The demand for the terminal textile industry is still in the traditional off-season, and market demand is expected to further weaken. There is generally a lack of confidence in the future market, and most downstream procurement attitudes may still be cautious.

Business analysts believe that due to the ongoing uncertainty in the geopolitical situation in Europe, international crude oil may experience a wide range of fluctuations. The PTA maintenance equipment has been gradually restarted, and the increase in production has strengthened the expectation of loose supply. The expected start of downstream polyester production is stable, but with the end of the peak season, there is insufficient demand momentum. Overall, the pressure on supply and demand still exists, and PTA lacks upward momentum, so prices may fall.

This week (11.16-11.22), the nickel price market first rose and then fell. According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, as of November 22, spot nickel was reported at 126933 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.82%. Macro emotions, geopolitical factors, and national policies have driven nickel prices to recover from the downward trend and rise, but the emotional impact has caused nickel prices to fall on the 22nd. At present, with the significant increase in ex factory prices, downstream companies are hesitant to undertake, and the market is more inclined towards low-priced sources.

Macroscopic aspect: the US general election landed, the disturbance mood dissipated, the weak US dollar boosted, the London metal market generally closed positive, the nickel price got rid of the declining trend with the trend, the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalated, geopolitical factors stirred the market trend again, and the nickel price trend was strong. With the continuous effectiveness of existing policies, the effective implementation of incremental policies, and the continuous release of policy combination effects, the trend of China’s economic recovery and improvement is steadily strengthening, which provides favorable support for nickel prices. However, the new US government may impose high tariffs on China, and the market is concerned that the demand for Chinese metals has not decreased. On the 22nd, the upward trend of nickel prices did not continue and fell slightly.

On the supply side: The slow recovery of the foreign economy and the continuous increase in inventory, coupled with the effective implementation of domestic policies, have effectively stimulated domestic demand potential. Shanghai Nickel has been continuously destocking this week. As of November 22, the inventory of Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts was 27492 tons, a decrease of 892 tons from last Friday; But the quantity of goods that meet the delivery quality is 31194 tons, an increase of 722 tons from last Friday, and inventory pressure continues; On November 22nd, LME nickel inventory was 159000 tons, an increase of 4566 tons from last Friday.

On the demand side: Stainless steel first rose and then fell during the week. As of November 22, the daily average price of spot 304/2B stainless steel flat plates was 12442.86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.23% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 3.01%. The import volume of stainless steel has increased, while the export volume has decreased, resulting in a significant decrease in net exports; Demand has improved, destocking continues, and there is limited room for price declines.

Market forecast: The trend of economic recovery and improvement is slowly emerging, but inventory pressure and price resistance still exist. Macro and emotional factors continue to affect price trends, and it is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate in the short term.