This week, the domestic acrylic acid market price remained stable. As of August 14th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6787.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.18% compared to last week (6800.00 yuan/ton). The market price of raw material propylene has been lowered. The cost support of the acrylic acid market has weakened,

The main reasons for the market price of acrylic acid are as follows:

In terms of cost

The price of propylene in the East China region is mainly weakly stable, with mainstream prices ranging from 7000-7050 yuan/ton. Downstream factories in Zhejiang region have relatively sufficient propylene supply reserves in August, with limited demand for new orders. As of August 14th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6850.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3.28% compared to the beginning of this month (7083.25 yuan/ton). There are still some downstream buyers in Zhejiang who have a strong desire to buy, but they mainly rely on contracts and small contracts for volume trading.

In terms of demand

The main downstream market for butyl acrylate is experiencing a downward trend. The atmosphere in the venue is deadlocked, with limited cost support, downstream users mainly consuming contracts, cautious spot purchases, flexible offers from butyl acrylate suppliers, and weak market negotiation focus. The limited increase in orders from the butyl acrylate factory has led to low purchasing enthusiasm, resulting in shipping pressure for acrylic acid production enterprises and a weak trend in market prices. The overall price of butyl acrylate in China showed a trend of first falling and then rising, with an average price of 9146 yuan/ton in the East China market.

Recently, the trend of raw materials has been declining, and the market for acrylic acid is cool. Under the guidance of multiple market factors, the price of acrylic acid remains stable due to the smooth flow of goods in the yard.

Overall

The domestic acrylic acid market price is temporarily stable, and the cost side propylene price is running weakly, supporting the weak price of the acrylic acid market; The demand side is driven by the support of other raw materials and the tight supply flow, which still provides sufficient support for the current acrylic acid market. Business analysts predict that in the future, the cost pressure on acrylic acid companies will increase and the recovery of terminal demand will be slow, making it difficult to maintain the subsequent rise of acrylic acid and esters.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of PET water bottles has fallen this week, and the volatile operation shows a certain downward trend. As of August 11th, the average price of PET water bottle grade is 7127 yuan/ton.

Raw material market: Although concerns about economic recession have eased in the raw material market, the possibility of larger scale conflicts in the Middle East has cast a shadow of uncertainty on the market. This risk factor continues to affect the stability of production and transportation, thereby driving international oil prices up for the fourth consecutive trading day. Specifically, as of the end of trading on August 9th, the WTI crude oil futures due in September 2024 rose by $0.65 to close at $76.84 per barrel, recording a 0.85% increase; During the same period, Brent crude oil futures (delivered in October 2024) also rose by $0.50, closing at $79.66 per barrel, an increase of 0.63%. The crude oil futures in the Chinese market (SC main contract 2409) also performed positively, closing up 3.9 yuan/barrel from the previous trading day to 559.3 yuan/barrel.

However, it is worth noting that despite the rebound in the crude oil market, the performance of the polyester raw material market appears relatively weak. Especially PTA, there has been a significant downward trend this week, with its main contract price hitting a low of 5468 yuan, a new low since July 2023. The main reasons for the decline in PTA prices this time can be attributed to two aspects: firstly, the weak macroeconomic environment and the downward trend of cost side prices such as crude oil have had a drag effect on PTA prices; Secondly, the imbalance of supply and demand within the PTA market, especially the increase in supply pressure, has further intensified the downward pressure on its prices.

The PET analyst from Shengyi Society believes that there is currently a lack of confidence in the bottle grade PET market, and downstream PET suppliers are continuing to replenish at low prices. PET prices are still slightly declining. In the short term, it is expected that the market will maintain a weak oscillation within a narrow range. Specifically, fluctuations in raw material prices and the implementation of maintenance plans will become key factors affecting the future trend of the PET market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from August 5th to 9th, the domestic market price of aggregated MDI fell from 17500 yuan/ton to 17433 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.38% during the period and a year-on-year decline of 0.1%. The domestic aggregated MDI market has experienced a narrow decline, with a decrease in supply, but downstream demand is slow. Under the supply-demand game, the price of aggregated MDI has slightly decreased.

On the supply side, Huntsman’s 470000 tons/year MDI production plant located in Rosenburg, the Netherlands, announced on August 5th local time that it was affected and the plant was operating at low negative load. There have been no new maintenance of domestic facilities this week, and the load reduction of overseas factories has boosted the domestic market.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The domestic pure benzene market is fluctuating and declining. As of August 9th, the benchmark price of pure benzene in Shengyi Society is 8410 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: Currently, the domestic aniline market is experiencing a strong upward trend, exceeding 10000 yuan. As of August 9th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyi Society is 10550 yuan/ton. The overall cost of aggregated MDI has not changed significantly.

On the demand side, the downstream market is slowly following up and has been in a stalemate recently. The market atmosphere is relatively quiet, with many inquiries and limited actual transactions. Recently, the cold and formaldehyde free board industry has been slow to follow up, and the overall market has been weak. Short term aggregated MDI demand is affected by bearish factors.

Future forecast: In the future, factories with maintenance plans and reduced supply expectations may boost the MDI market. Business Society’s aggregated MDI analyst predicts that the domestic aggregated MDI market will experience strong fluctuations.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine in Shandong region has stopped falling and rebounded, rising. The average market price in early August was 20300 yuan/ton, and on August 6th it was 20700 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.97% and a decrease of 5.05% compared to the same period last year. On August 5th, the bromine commodity index was 72.63, up 1.05 points from yesterday, down 70.38% from the cycle high of 245.18 points (2021-10-27), and up 23.27% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have risen, with an average market price of 1275 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 1290 yuan/ton on August 6th. The price has increased by 1.18%, which is 45.49% higher than the same period last year. The supply of sulfur is temporarily stable, and downstream factories have a positive purchasing attitude. The purchasing sentiment is stable, with a focus on on-demand procurement.

Supply side: Due to irregular rainfall, brine bromine enterprises have reduced production, and seawater bromine has also reduced production due to rainwater. The rainfall this week is still relatively high, and it is expected that there will be little change in production; In addition, the amount of imported bromine arriving at the port is gradually decreasing, and the domestic bromine inventory is decreasing.

On the demand side: Bromine plant is undergoing maintenance, but downstream stocking is average. The maintenance of the main downstream flame retardant part is weak and dominant overall. Downstream and distributors purchase as needed.

Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to rise recently, while upstream sulfur prices are on the rise. Due to reduced inventory during maintenance, downstream flame retardants are operating normally, while agricultural and intermediate demand is average. The supply-demand game is expected to continue with the consolidation of bromine prices in the later stage. The mainstream average ex factory price of bromine in domestic regions is estimated to be around 20000-21000 yuan/ton, depending on downstream market demand.

Recently, the price trend of domestic fluorite has continued to decline. As of the 5th, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3547.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.22% from the price of 3591.25 yuan/ton on July 31 and a year-on-year increase of 16.07%.

Supply side: Limited mining operation, little change in fluorite supply

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, the national department will carry out renovation of fluorite mines in the near future, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. In addition, the high temperature and rainy weather in the southern region have increased the difficulty of fluorite mining operation, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite remains tight. However, the import of fluorite from Mongolia has a greater impact on the northern fluorite market, and the trend of fluori.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid demand, weak refrigerant, low operating level

Recently, the trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market has declined, and the mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China is negotiated at 10500-11000 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market is weak and declining, with some units still in shutdown recently. There is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid, and manufacturers have low orders for purchasing hydrofluoric acid. The overall production of hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%, which has dragged down the domestic fluorite market. Some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers purchase on demand, and the domestic fluorite market trend is declining.

The downstream refrigerant market in the terminal continues to be deadlocked due to poor demand transmission. After entering the off-season of production, the market production demand weakened. In addition, the recent rainy weather has led to poor inventory of refrigerant companies, which has resulted in a lack of enthusiasm for upstream product procurement. The market for some refrigerant products has declined, and as a result, the fluorite market is weak and difficult to change.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as national defense, nuclear industry, etc., including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrode, photovoltaic panel, etc. With the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor fields, fluorite applications have received certain support, and the fluorite market is still supported.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production for safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. However, the downstream hydrofluoric acid market trend has declined, and the demand for downstream refrigerants has weakened. In addition, imported fluorite sources have formed a certain impact on the market, and there are many negative factors. Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society, believes that the price trend of fluorite will decline in the later stage.

The market price of ethyl acetate fluctuated within a range in July. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 31, the average production price of ethyl acetate was 6210.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.64% compared to the beginning of the month price of 6206.67 yuan/ton. The main reason for the limited positive impact on the cost side, downstream follow-up as needed, cautious mentality in the market, and narrow fluctuations in the price of ethyl acetate.

Market analysis: This month, the overall price of ethyl acetate in the market has not changed much, but narrow fluctuations have been the main trend during the month. The stable decline in prices in the first half of the year was mainly due to the weak raw material market and negative cost factors, resulting in a decrease in the price of ethyl acetate; In the second half of the year, the price of ethyl acetate first rose and then fell. In the early stage, the price of acetic acid continued to rise, supported by favorable raw materials. In addition, the main factory in Shandong underwent equipment maintenance, resulting in a reduction in market supply. The market sentiment was optimistic, and the price of ethyl acetate continued to rise. Later, as the equipment resumed its early load, the price of acetic acid showed signs of decline, and the market sentiment was bearish, leading to a downward trend in the price of ethyl acetate.

According to the Business Society Acetic Acid Commodity Market Analysis System, as of July 31st, the price was 3325 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 7.95% compared to the acetic acid price of 3080 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of acetic acid on the raw material side has fluctuated and risen, with cost fluctuations being the main factor. The acetic acid market continues to transmit to the terminal, affecting the downstream ethyl ester trend to fluctuate and operate.

Looking at the future, the upstream price of ethyl acetate has rebounded and risen, with a positive impact on the cost side. The main factories for ethyl acetate have stable shipments, and the mentality of the industry is good. Downstream demand is the main factor, and market trading is still acceptable. It is expected that the ethyl acetate market will strengthen and consolidate in the future. It is recommended to pay attention to the price execution of raw materials such as acetic acid and ethyl acetate manufacturers.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell this week (7.23-7.30), with an average market price of 252710 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 245510 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 2.85%.

The recent decline in tin prices is mainly influenced by macro and demand factors. On a macro level, the manufacturing PMI in the United States fell into a contraction range in July, hitting a seven month low. The service industry and comprehensive PMI were better than expected and previous values, and the non-ferrous metal market continued to fluctuate. Myanmar’s resumption of production is uncertain, and there is emotional disturbance at the tin mining end.

Domestic refined tin production is relatively stable, but the tight supply of raw materials limits production space, and the market continues to wait for major factories to schedule production.

On the demand side, it is currently the off-season for demand, and terminal consumption is still sluggish. Refining tin processing fees have stabilized, and downstream buyers are cautious in their purchases. The recent low tin prices have accelerated the large-scale destocking of the domestic market during the off-season.

Due to a large amount of destocking in the short term, there is support for prices on the inventory side. Tin prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, with a relatively strong trend within the non-ferrous metal sector.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of styrene in Shandong was 9433.33 yuan/ton on July 1st and 9460.00 yuan/ton on July 30th, a decrease of 0.78% during the month. The current price has increased by 15.20% compared to last year.

styrene

The market price of styrene first rose and then fell in July. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has mainly fluctuated in the past three months, and the decline in this month’s market is greater than the increase. The reason for the decline is the fluctuation of international oil prices, poor cost support, increased supply of styrene, and mainly rigid demand for spot goods. Poor spot demand has led to a slight decline in the styrene market.

Cost aspect

In July, pure benzene continued to decline overall, with prices plummeting by a thousand miles. The inventory of pure benzene ports in Jiangsu region is 39800 tons, an increase of 19800 tons from the end of last month, indicating a rapid increase in inventory. Most refineries in Shandong continue to lower their offers. After the price increase, the market continued to buy and the transactions were better. As of July 30th, the mainstream spot price of pure benzene in Shandong market was 9318.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.96% from 8389.67 at the beginning of the month. The arrival of imported pure benzene goods on board has been delayed, and the accumulated inventory at the port this month is lower than expected, with a slight increase expected in the later period.

Supply side

There were many maintenance visits to the styrene plant in July. Under the current profit situation, the enthusiasm of production enterprises to start production is limited, and it is expected that there will be little supply pressure in August, and there is an expectation of a decrease in output.

Demand side

In July, the three major downstream producers of styrene fluctuated and consolidated. Among them, the EPS market is stable, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere is more obvious. Merchants buy according to demand, and overall transactions are poor. Domestic ABS prices have slightly increased. The overall stalemate of the upstream three materials is weak, and the cost support for ABS is average. In the early stage, the favorable news of the downward adjustment of ABS polymerization plant construction has been exhausted, and there has been a slight increase in social inventory, but there is still supply pressure on site. The demand side has weak demand, and the market situation is obvious during the off-season, resulting in low trading momentum. Overall, it is expected that the ABS market will remain weak and difficult to change in the short term. The demand for PS in the middle and lower reaches is generally moderate, with slightly higher competition pressure for perbenzene. However, the conversion of benzene is still acceptable, and the short-term PS market may be dominated by narrow consolidation.

According to the styrene data analyst from Shengyi Society, the current cost based pure price continues to decline, with poor cost support. At the end of the month, styrene supply has increased, while demand for essential goods is still acceptable and spot demand is poor. Shengyi Society analysts predict that the styrene market will mainly experience a slight decline.

The price of plasticizer DOP hit a new low for the year in July

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 29th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.42% from the DOP price of 9862.50 yuan/ton on July 1st at the beginning of the month; Compared to January 1st, the DOP price dropped by 21.23% to 12091.67 yuan/ton. The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell in July, and on July 29th, the price of DOP hit a new low for the year 2024. On July 29th, the price was at its lowest point in a year, a decrease of 2691.67 yuan/ton or 22.03% from the highest price of 12216.67 yuan/ton in a year.

In terms of raw materials, the price of isooctanol hit a new annual low in July

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 29th, the price of isooctanol was 8966.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.66% from the price of 9710 yuan/ton on July 1st at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 30.76% from the price of 12950 yuan/ton on January 1st. In July, isooctanol hit a new low for the year, and on July 29th, the price of isooctanol was at its lowest point in a year. The trading atmosphere for new orders in the isooctanol market remains weak. In July, the octanol plant in the northwest region resumed normal production, and there are plans to start production for the octanol plant in Zibo, Shandong. The purchase of spot octanol has slowed down, putting pressure on high-end market offers. The Shandong factory took the initiative to lower prices for shipments, but due to poor transactions in the plasticizer market, small orders from buyers were restocked, which affected the market trading atmosphere. The support for octanol prices is insufficient, and the price of isooctanol has hit a new low for the year.

Supply factors

The cost of DOP is mainly affected by the raw material octanol, with a correlation coefficient of 0.960 between isooctanol and DOP. The trend of DOP market is highly correlated with the isooctanol market. As the expected production of the new octanol unit approaches in the later stage, industry players generally lack confidence in the future market. Octanol factories maintain low inventory operations for their products, while plasticizer factories also adopt a cautious attitude towards the procurement of raw material octanol, mainly focusing on replenishing inventory at low prices in stages. The short-term concentrated replenishment of buying orders can only temporarily support the market price, but lacks sustained rebound momentum, and the future DOP market may experience long-term fluctuations and weak operation.

Demand factors

The overall demand for terminals is in the off-season. From the comparison of quarterly demand trends in previous years, the third quarter was mostly the off-season for DOP consumption. The high temperature in the south affects construction and product production, leading to high cost pressure and insufficient order demand, resulting in a significant reduction in workload and production shutdowns for small and medium-sized enterprises; The production of PVC disposable gloves industry is hovering around 4-4.5%; As temperatures rise, the proportion of plasticizers added to the film industry decreases. The demand for industries related to construction and decoration, such as furniture packaging film, flooring, PVC wallpaper, etc., remains weak. In the absence of confidence in the future market, downstream product companies are forced to replenish their inventory of DOP at low prices, resulting in a lack of sustained market transactions and insufficient support for demand in the face of DOP.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, the price of raw material isooctanol has fallen to a new low, the price of phthalic anhydride has weakened and stabilized, and the cost of plasticizer DOP has decreased; Downstream demand is low season, with poor demand for plasticizers. In the future, as the cost of DOP raw materials decreases and downstream demand is low, the price of plasticizer DOP is weakly consolidating.

This week (July 22-26, 2024), downstream demand for cotton yarn was flat, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. The upstream raw material dissolution slurry market remained strong, with cost support remaining. Adhesive short fiber enterprises had tight inventory, and adhesive short fiber was running steadily with stable prices. The downstream cotton yarn market has weak production, and the overall market is still dominated by rigid demand procurement. There is no obvious sign of improvement on the demand side. Downstream yarn factories mainly consume inventory, and the release of new orders on site is limited. Adhesive short fiber manufacturers mainly execute shipments, and the overall market delivery speed is stable.

Price trend of viscose staple fiber

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of viscose staple fiber remained stable this week (July 22-26, 2024). As of July 26th, the domestic factory price for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber is 13500 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.

In terms of supply, the production of adhesive short fiber factories has remained stable, with an industry operating load rate of around 78%, and overall shipments remain relatively stable.

In terms of cost, the price of the main raw material dissolving pulp remains relatively high and stable. The price of broad-leaved dissolving pulp for domestic enterprises is referenced to 7700 yuan/ton, and the price for external markets is referenced to 940 US dollars/ton, which supports the cost of adhesive short fibers. And the adhesive short fiber industry is in a narrow loss state, with factories showing reluctance to sell at low prices.

In terms of demand, the downstream market for human cotton yarn is deepening during the off-season, and with slow shipments, the replenishment of viscose staple fibers may still be mainly driven by rigid demand.

Future forecast

In July, the textile market entered the traditional off-season, with weak terminal demand and low operating rates of downstream cotton yarn factories. The cotton yarn market may be lukewarm. With the arrival of high temperatures, downstream cotton yarn factories may also reduce production, and the demand for viscose staple fibers lacks favorable support. However, some adhesive short fiber factories have relatively sufficient orders, and the sentiment of low price reluctance to sell may still exist, resulting in relatively firm offers. The inventory of adhesive short fiber enterprises may remain at a low level in the short term, and the tight delivery of adhesive short fiber factories in the short term will have a boosting effect on the market. The market price of raw material dissolution slurry remains stable, providing stable support for the cost end of adhesive short fibers. Overall, it is expected that the market for adhesive short fibers will remain stable in the short term, with limited price fluctuations. The price is expected to be in the range of 13500-13600 yuan/ton.