According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the xylene market saw a slight increase in December 2024. From December 1st to 31st, the domestic xylene market price fell from 5910 yuan/ton to 6110 yuan/ton, with a cumulative price increase of 3.38% during the period.

In the first half of the month, the toluene market fluctuated upwards. In the later part of the week, with the strengthening of crude oil prices, the atmosphere in the spot market improved. Refineries in Shandong region raised their ex factory prices, and downstream companies replenished their inventory according to demand. Some transactions in the market boosted the mentality of the spot market. The inventory of ports in East China continues to decline, and the supply expectations in the spot market are tight. With the support of favorable factors, the mixed xylene market has overall risen this cycle. However, there is a lack of actual demand support in the future, and there is significant resistance to the market’s continued upward trend.

In the second half of the week, the xylene market fluctuated upwards, with refinery inventories in Shandong operating at a low level, and overall ex factory prices rising. The inventory of ports in East China is relatively low this week, and the overall market atmosphere is strong. Traders have a strong reluctance to sell, and the market is holding up prices. But with weak downstream procurement, the downstream’s intention to continue entering the market is slightly lower. Overall, the supply side is boosted by favorable conditions, and the market is generally running strong, but lacks downstream support, resulting in insufficient momentum for the market to continue rising.

Cost wise: The crude oil market has fluctuated and strengthened this month, with prices overall rising during the cycle, driving an improvement in the atmosphere of the spot market. As of December 30th, international crude oil futures have risen, with the settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures at $70.99 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $74.39 per barrel.

Supply side: The quotation of Sinopec xylene enterprise has not changed much. Currently, the enterprise is operating normally, the production of the equipment is stable, and the production and sales are stable. As of December 31st, East China Company quoted 6200 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6050 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6100-6150 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6000 yuan/ton.

Demand side: Weak support for downward demand in the external market for xylene

On December 28th, the price of xylene in the petrochemical sales company remained stable, currently at 7100 yuan/ton. This price is being implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. The operation of facilities such as Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical is stable, and sales are normal. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of December 27th, the closing prices of the Asian xylene market were 795-796 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 820-822 US dollars/ton CFR China.

Market forecast: The recent trend of the crude oil market is volatile, with limited guidance for the spot market. In terms of downstream demand, there is currently insufficient momentum to continue chasing high demand, and the lack of demand support is expected to weaken the xylene market in the future.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 20th, the price of lead 1 # was 17240 yuan/ton, slightly higher than the lead price of 17230 yuan/ton on December 16th, with an increase of 0.06%.

This week’s market analysis

Due to the drop in lead prices last week and the improvement in downstream stocking sentiment, fundamentals may provide some support for lead prices. This week, lead prices have slightly increased within the range.

Supply side

This week, the processing fee for domestic lead concentrate remained the same as last week. The processing fee for imported lead concentrate will be reduced to -25 US dollars per dry ton. In November, the import volume of lead concentrate was 94900 tons, a month on month decrease of 41.96% and a slight year-on-year decrease of 1.56%. From January to November 2024, the cumulative import volume of lead concentrate was 1.144 million tons of metal, a year-on-year increase of 4.22%. The operating rate of primary lead has decreased. In terms of recycled lead, due to air pollution and environmental policies, some recycled lead enterprises have reduced production and the weekly operating rate has decreased.

Demand side

At the end of the year, large lead-acid battery companies increased their operating rates to boost demand, but the consumption in the terminal battery market gradually weakened.

Consumer end

This week, the production of lead-acid battery enterprises was normal, and the weekly operating rate remained at 75.6%, with little change.

Inventory situation

As of the weekend, the total social inventory of lead ingots was 58500 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from December 16th and an increase of 600 tons from December 12th. LME inventory decreased by 8300 tons from last Friday to 252500 tons.

comprehensive analysis

Recycled lead enterprises affected by environmental protection have resumed production one after another, but the production in Shandong region is still limited and difficult to fully release. The production of primary lead smelters has increased, but the market supply is still tight due to the low volume of goods received.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market fluctuated and adjusted weakly in December. The average ex factory price of 1.4D * 38mm in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 7126 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.70% from the beginning of the month.

From a cost perspective, the OPEC+meeting held on December 5th in the crude oil market decided to postpone the crude oil production reduction measures until the end of the first quarter of 2025. As winter approaches in the northern hemisphere, driven by the rising demand for heating oil, global crude oil demand enters the peak season, and EIA commercial crude oil inventories continue to decline. According to EIA forecast data, there will be a global supply gap for crude oil before the end of the first quarter of 2025, with seasonal increases in crude oil demand and a continued decline in inventory, which will drive up oil prices. As of December 27th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.60 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.17 per barrel.

From the end of November to the beginning of December, the PTA operating rate rose to over 90%, reaching the highest level since the beginning of this year. According to statistics, the cumulative production of PTA in China reached 65.06 million tons in the first 11 months, an increase of 7.9 million tons compared to the same period last year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.8%. Entering December, although some facilities have undergone maintenance, they have also been restarted one after another. As of now, the PTA industry’s operating rate is around 86%, which has increased the expectation of loose supply. Moreover, the social inventory is around 4.1 million tons, and PTA will continue to accumulate inventory. In terms of price, the domestic PTA spot market showed a volatile adjustment in December. As of December 27th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 4759 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.38% from the beginning of the month.

On the demand side, as the price of polyester staple fibers slowly declines, some downstream yarn factories have a bottom fishing mentality, but overall demand is poor and the purchasing atmosphere is cautious. The off-season for textile demand continues, and many consider early holidays. Downstream yarn factories have reduced their demand for polyester staple fibers. The terminal weaving factory has a strong sentiment of recovering funds at the end of the year, and winter orders are coming to an end. Although some spring and summer sample orders have been issued recently, the overall order quantity is limited, and there is little positive demand expectation. The operating rate of the weaving machine industry in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has declined to below 67%.

Business analysts believe that PTA’s newly invested facilities are gradually stabilizing, and domestic supply continues to increase. As the Spring Festival approaches, maintenance plans for polyester staple fiber factories are gradually being introduced, and it is expected that supply will shrink, but demand still faces the risk of seasonal decline. Overall, due to limited cost support and weakened supply and demand structure, it is expected that the price of polyester staple fibers will decline.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA spot market showed a fluctuating adjustment in December. As of December 27th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 4767 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.55% from the beginning of the month.

From the end of November to the beginning of December, the PTA operating rate rose to over 90%, reaching the highest level since the beginning of this year. According to statistics, the cumulative production of PTA in China reached 65.06 million tons in the first 11 months, an increase of 7.9 million tons compared to the same period last year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.8%. Entering December, although some facilities have undergone maintenance, they have also been restarted one after another. As of now, the PTA industry’s operating rate is around 86%, which has increased the expectation of loose supply. Moreover, the social inventory is around 4.1 million tons, and PTA will continue to accumulate inventory.

The OPEC+meeting held on December 5th decided to postpone the crude oil production reduction measures until the end of the first quarter of 2025. As winter approaches in the northern hemisphere, driven by the rising demand for heating oil, global crude oil demand enters the peak season, and EIA commercial crude oil inventories continue to decline. According to EIA forecast data, there will be a global supply gap for crude oil before the end of the first quarter of 2025, with seasonal increases in crude oil demand and a continued decline in inventory, which will drive up oil prices. As of December 26th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $69.62 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $73.26 per barrel.

Since December, the downstream polyester production rate has dropped to below 87%, mainly due to the stable production rates of bottle flakes, long fibers, and short fibers. In terms of inventory, both long and short fibers are in a destocking state, and the inventory pressure is not significant. Although the inventory of short fibers is relatively high, the sustainability of destocking is good, which maintains the essential demand for raw material procurement. The terminal weaving factory has a strong sentiment of recovering funds at the end of the year, and winter orders are coming to an end. Although some spring and summer sample orders have been issued recently, the overall order quantity is limited, and there is little positive demand expectation.

Business analysts believe that PTA’s newly invested facilities are gradually stabilizing, and domestic supply continues to increase. The operating rate of weaving machines continues to decline to around 65%, indicating that the operating rate of polyester still faces the risk of seasonal decline. The supply-demand contradiction will further deteriorate, and it is expected that PTA prices will be weakly adjusted.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6660 yuan/ton on December 1st, and 6630 yuan/ton on December 26th. The price of thermal phosphoric acid in China has dropped by 0.45% this month.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6983 yuan/ton on December 1st, and 6983 yuan/ton on December 26th. The price of wet process phosphoric acid in China has remained stable this month.

2、 Market analysis

In the first half of December, the price of hot process phosphoric acid rose slightly and then remained stable, while the price of wet process phosphoric acid remained stable. The supply and demand of the phosphoric acid market are balanced, with no significant fluctuations at present. Downstream on-demand procurement leads to a sluggish market transaction atmosphere. In the second half of December, the price of hot process phosphoric acid fell weakly, while the price of wet process phosphoric acid fluctuated slightly. The raw material yellow phosphorus market has weakened, cost support has weakened, and the price of thermal phosphoric acid has been lowered. Supported by downstream demand, the wet process phosphoric acid market remains strong. As of December 26th, the ex factory price of 85 thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6600-6850 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan region it is around 6400-6700 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85 wet process phosphoric acid is around 6900-7150 yuan/ton.

Raw material yellow phosphorus market. This month, the market price of yellow phosphorus has weakened and fallen. Downstream procurement is cautious, resulting in a decrease in new orders in the market. This month, the operating rate of yellow phosphorus has declined, and the market supply has decreased. At the end of the month, the market stopped falling and rose. Expected short-term consolidation of domestic yellow phosphorus prices.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s phosphate analyst believes that the phosphate market has been running steadily in recent days. At present, the raw material yellow phosphorus market is pushing up, but the upward space is limited. The phosphoric acid market is mainly wait-and-see, with flat market trading. It is expected that the domestic phosphoric acid market will stabilize and operate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from December 18th to 25th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2625 yuan/ton to 2740 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.38% during the period, a month on month increase of 7.03%, and a year-on-year increase of 10.67%. The domestic methanol market continues to rise, with some areas experiencing rainy and snowy weather, leading to an increase in shipping costs. Due to the expected reduction in imported supply and the anticipated shutdown of the Southwest Gas Head Methanol Plant, there is a expectation for a decrease in port replenishment and inventory. In addition, the port methanol inventory has entered the destocking channel, and the market has a strong willingness to hold onto the goods. As a result, the port methanol price continues to rise.

As of the close on December 25th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2501, opened at 2662 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2683 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2642 yuan/ton. It closed at 2653 yuan/ton in the closing session, up 12 yuan/ton from the previous trading day’s settlement, with an increase of 0.45%. The trading volume was 927774 lots, and the position was 866142 lots, with a daily increase of -2871.

In terms of cost, most coal mines in the current region are operating normally, and the overall coal supply level remains stable. It is difficult for terminals to release large-scale demand, and the current market performance is poor. Some coal mines have low online bidding premiums, and there are still unsold sections, resulting in a relatively sluggish trading atmosphere. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.

On the demand side, downstream MTBE: MTBE demand is increasing; Downstream acetic acid: Increased demand for acetic acid; Downstream chloride: The demand for chloride does not fluctuate significantly; Downstream formaldehyde: There is currently no plan to shut down the formaldehyde plant, but attention should be paid to environmental warning situations in various regions; Downstream dimethyl ether: There is currently no plan to shut down the dimethyl ether plant, and demand fluctuations are not significant. The majority of downstream demand for methanol has increased, influenced by favorable factors on the methanol demand side.

On the supply side, the overall device loss exceeds the recovery amount, and the capacity utilization rate decreases. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.

In terms of external markets, as of the close of December 24th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 346.00-347.00 US dollars per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 123.50-124.50 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 438.00-439.00 euros/ton.

The future forecast shows that the supply of goods will continue to be abundant, and there will be little change in traditional downstream demand. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly experience range fluctuations.

This week, the acrylic acid market has indeed shown a strong upward trend and continuous price increases, mainly due to the tight domestic supply of acrylic acid.

1、 Price trend of acrylic acid market

According to the latest market price data, the average price of acrylic acid in the mainstream market across the country has shown an upward trend in recent times. As of December 24, 2024, the price was 7150 yuan/ton, showing a significant increase compared to previous days. This upward trend corresponds to the strong operation of the acrylic acid market this week, indicating that the market supply and demand relationship is still tight, leading to price increases.

2、 Analysis of Acrylic Acid Supply Surface

1. Device maintenance and load reduction: The operating level of the acrylic acid industry remained at around 70% this week, a decrease from the previous week. This is mainly due to some acrylic acid units undergoing maintenance or load reduction production.

2. Increased concentration of production capacity: In recent years, the production capacity of China’s acrylic acid industry has continued to expand, but market competition has also intensified. With the increasing concentration of industry production capacity and the improvement of upstream and downstream supporting facilities in the industrial chain, some large enterprises such as Wanhua Chemical and Satellite Chemical have reduced production costs and improved their profitability by optimizing their production capacity structure and controlling output. This also affects the supply of acrylic acid to a certain extent.

In addition, changes in the price of raw material propylene have also had a significant impact on the market price of acrylic acid. Propylene is the main raw material for the production of acrylic acid, and its price fluctuates due to the influence of the crude oil market and the supply and demand relationship in the petrochemical industry. When the price of propylene rises, the production cost of acrylic acid increases, which in turn drives up market prices. This cost driven price increase mechanism is particularly evident in the acrylic acid market.

3、 Analysis of Acrylic Acid Demand Surface

In terms of demand, the market demand for acrylic acid and its related products continues to increase, driving the rapid development of the industry. The downstream of the acrylic acid industry chain is widely used in fields such as coatings, adhesives, textiles, plastics, etc. The demand for acrylic acid and its derivatives in these industries directly determines the production volume and product structure of the acrylic acid industry. With the acceleration of industrialization and the development of emerging fields, the demand for acrylic acid market has shown a stable growth trend, which further exacerbates the tightness of market supply.

Despite the tight supply of acrylic acid, downstream demand remains stable overall. Downstream products of acrylic acid, such as acrylic esters, refined acid, and SAP, have overall followed the trend of acrylic acid. However, some downstream products, such as acrylic acid lotion and water reducer, are still mainly purchased in just need, without large-scale demand explosion. This has led to the acrylic acid market being able to maintain a strong operation despite tight supply, but with limited growth.

4、 Future prospects

Looking ahead to the future, it is expected that the acrylic acid market will continue to maintain a strong operating trend. On the one hand, there are still issues with the shutdown and maintenance of supply side equipment, and the supply of spot goods is becoming increasingly tight; On the other hand, the intention of companies to push up their offers is still strong, and the social inventory of spot goods is limited. Under the combined action of these factors, the price of acrylic acid market will continue to rise. However, it should also be noted that the slow follow-up speed of downstream demand and the sales pressure of holders may have a certain impact on the market. Therefore, the specific increase needs to pay attention to the increase in market demand and downstream industry orders.

In summary, the continued upward trend and strong operation of the acrylic acid market this week are mainly due to tight supply. The future market trend still needs to closely monitor changes in supply and demand relationships as well as the dynamics of upstream and downstream industrial chains.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, since December 16th, the domestic adipic acid market has continued to decline weakly, with a decline of over 3%. On December 16th, the average market price of adipic acid was 8433 yuan/ton, and on December 23rd, the average market price of adipic acid was 8133 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.56%.

Loose supply of adipic acid continues to weaken

In mid December, the domestic adipic acid market continued to decline weakly. Mainly due to the weakening of upstream raw materials such as pure benzene and cyclohexanone, limited support for cost increases, and weak demand for adipic acid procurement from end-users. In addition to the oversupply in the adipic acid market and the combination of multiple negative factors, the adipic acid market continues to decline weakly, with the mainstream market price ranging from 8100-8400 yuan/ton, indicating a weak market trend.

An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that negative pressure will continue to weaken the market for adipic acid in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from December 16th to 20th, MTBE prices fell from 5612 yuan/ton to 5487 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 2.23% during the period, a month on month increase of 1.39%, and a year-on-year decrease of 14.99%. The trend of the domestic MTBE market is gradually weakening. Due to the end of the phased replenishment of inventory by terminal operators, their enthusiasm for purchasing related gasoline raw materials has slowed down. At the same time, as various gasoline components have risen to a phase high point, compressing the mixed profit of operators, their resistance to high prices is increasing. The MTBE market is stable but weak in consolidation.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: The rise in international oil prices is mainly due to the market’s belief that the Asian economy is expected to improve, coupled with the risk of new sanctions faced by some oil producing countries, and a decrease in commercial crude oil inventories in the United States. As of December 19th, the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $72.88 per barrel, a decrease of $0.51 or 0.7%.

On the demand side, international crude oil futures have fluctuated downwards, and the refined oil market has stopped rising and fallen. Refineries have lowered prices to promote sales, but the poor performance of terminal demand has suppressed the digestion of social unit inventory. The pace of mid to downstream merchants entering the market for procurement has slowed down, and market transactions are mainly small orders. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by bearish factors.

Supply side: There are currently no new start-up and shutdown devices, and the overall fluctuation of resource supply is limited. The short-term impact on domestic MTBE supply is mixed.

As of the close on December 19th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $12.5/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $706.99-708.99/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $29/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $804.49-804.99/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States decreased by $7.09 per ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $802.10-802.46 per ton (226.48-226.58 cents per gallon).

The future forecast shows weak supply and demand. MTBE analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the domestic MTBE market will experience a narrow consolidation in the short term.

Product Name: Titanium Dioxide

Latest price on December 18th: 14960 yuan/ton

Analysis points: The titanium dioxide market had light trading on December 18th. Recently, the titanium concentrate market has maintained consolidation, and the sulfuric acid market price has temporarily stabilized. Currently, the cost pressure on titanium dioxide enterprises remains, and manufacturers’ quotations are mostly firm. The demand for upstream and downstream factories is mainly driven by urgent procurement, with a general willingness to stock up before the holiday and insufficient performance. The market is deadlocked and mostly wait-and-see. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid based pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 14000-15700 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 13000-13200 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

Prediction: The titanium dioxide market is expected to stabilize and operate in the short term.