The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and rose in January

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 7th, the DOP price was 8513.75 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 3.49% compared to the DOP price of 8226.25 yuan/ton on January 1st. The profit margin of plasticizer DOP is high, plasticizer enterprises are actively operating, downstream plasticizer enterprises have high operating rates, and plasticizer supply is sufficient. After the New Year’s Day holiday and with manufacturers replenishing their inventory before the Spring Festival, there was a brief increase in demand for plasticizers. As a result, the supply of plasticizer DOP stabilized and demand increased, leading to fluctuating prices of plasticizer DOP.

Raw material prices fluctuate and rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 7th, the price of isooctanol was 8033.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 5.70% compared to the price of 7600 yuan/ton on January 1st. In January, the equipment production of isooctanol enterprises remained stable. After the New Year’s Day holiday, inventory was replenished, and downstream manufacturers stocked up before the Spring Festival, resulting in a brief increase in demand. As a result, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose in January.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol has risen, the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and stabilized, and the cost of plasticizer DOP has increased; In terms of demand, restocking and stocking up have led to an increase in demand for plasticizers; On the supply side, plasticizer companies have high profits, are actively operating, and there is an oversupply of plasticizer companies. In the future, the price of raw material isooctanol will rise, and the cost of plasticizers will increase; In addition, with the double increase in supply and demand, it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and stabilize.

Introduction: Ethanol, commonly known as alcohol, can be divided into edible alcohol and industrial alcohol according to production methods. Edible alcohol is a product obtained by fermenting food and yeast in a fermentation tank, filtering, and distilling. It is usually an aqueous solution of ethanol and does not contain toxic benzene and methanol to the human body. Industrial alcohol is ethanol obtained by cracking long-chain organic compounds in petroleum under catalyst and high temperature conditions. In order to distinguish it from edible alcohol, industrial alcohol contains a certain amount of organic toxic substances such as methanol, which are also clearly marked and explained on the outer packaging. The ethanol specification monitored by Business Society is food grade 95% ethanol.

Firstly, let’s review the trend of the ethanol market in 2024. The domestic ethanol market prices remained in a range of fluctuations in 2024, with a weak downward trend in the first quarter. Although the Spring Festival holiday was interspersed during this period, downstream market demand did not recover as expected. Under the constraints of demand, the ethanol market showed a weak and volatile trend; In the second quarter, the market was mostly in a stalemate state, and domestic regional quotations showed a range oscillation trend; Although the third quarter was a golden September and silver October, the demand performance was poor, and the domestic ethanol market continued to be weak. As of the end of the year, the domestic ethanol market has been weakening, but there are still few obvious positive factors supporting it in the market.

In recent years, ethanol has become a necessity in people’s daily lives as the main disinfectant, and the proportion of medical alcohol has increased significantly, becoming one of the main uses of ethanol. At present, there is sufficient supply of medical alcohol to meet people’s living needs, and prices are rarely too high in a short period of time due to insufficient supply.

Let’s take a closer look at the domestic ethanol market trend in 2024:

The domestic ethanol market experienced a weak downward trend in the first quarter. At the beginning of the quarter, large factories in Northeast China had sufficient supply and a positive attitude towards shipment. Under inventory pressure, quotations continued to weaken, and the price of corn ethanol in Henan province declined due to poor shipment. During the Spring Festival period, large factories in Northeast China maintained normal production, and shipments before the Spring Festival were average. Enterprises had inventory and the snowfall weather affected the market prices of shipments, which continued to weaken. After the end of the Spring Festival, downstream terminal operators carried out post holiday restocking, but overall supply was sufficient, with some large factories actively selling and prices weakening. At the end of the quarter, the domestic ethanol market prices remained within a range of fluctuations. Due to an increase in procurement volume, enterprise quotations rose, resulting in limited transactions and a decline in prices. Henan corn ethanol fluctuates significantly, with prices falling after a short period of vehicles in front of the door, and prices rising when orders increase and vehicles increase.

The domestic ethanol market maintained range bound fluctuations in the second quarter. At the beginning of the quarter, there was sufficient inventory, and the market price weakened due to shipping pressure from the shipper. Before the May Day holiday, there was a decrease in supply within the market, coupled with pre holiday stocking, resulting in a state of supply-demand balance. Fuel ethanol continues to rise, mainly supported by main procurement and maintenance of the Laha fuel line. By the end of May, the major factory maintenance was completed, and the Hongzhan Jixian and Laha factories were restarted, resulting in a rebound in waterless production and a slight decline in waterless prices. At the end of the quarter, fuel ethanol showed a slight decline after a strong operation. With the end of the college entrance examination and an increase in summer travel, demand remained strong. Supported by the demand side, fuel ethanol operated steadily, moderately, and strongly. However, due to the continuous rise in freight costs, the price increase of fuel ethanol in the market was limited. Supply has increased, and downstream enterprises in the terminal have maintained on-demand procurement. Under the game of supply and demand, market prices have slightly fallen. After the price reduction, the market supply and demand maintain a tight balance and overall stability. There is a weak expectation in the market under the situation of supply side recovery.

The domestic ethanol market continued to be weak in the third quarter, with a lack of strong support within the market. At the beginning of the quarter, market prices began to decline in East China, and the downward trend in procurement prices had a negative impact on factory quotations. Based on cost support, the decline was limited; The rise and fall in the Henan region were divided, and the on-site thick source equipment was temporarily shut down, boosting the intention of holders to raise prices. However, after the price rose, transactions were limited, and prices began to fall when the equipment resumed. As of August, the demand side has not shown any improvement. The Northeast region is experiencing a weak downward trend, with high inventory levels in the equipment recovery area. The main focus is on digesting previous orders and contracts, and there is room for negotiation with some large customers. At the end of the quarter, during the double festival replenishment cycle, the domestic ethanol market experienced ups and downs. The spot supply in the Northeast region has slightly decreased, coupled with the support of previous order contracts, boosting market sentiment; The demand performance in the East China region is poor, coupled with the impact of the Northeast’s supply of goods, resulting in weak market prices. The raw material corn has experienced a significant decline due to the launch of new grains, which has formed a clear negative impact on ethanol prices. In addition, the demand before and after the Double Festival was lower than expected, and the market price is weak and difficult to change.

The domestic ethanol market maintained range bound fluctuations in the fourth quarter. During the National Day holiday, on-site shipments were average, putting pressure on cargo holders and making it difficult to find favorable factors to support demand. After the National Day holiday, downstream demand at the terminal continued to be weak, and the supply-demand contradiction was difficult to improve. The quotations of major factories in various regions began to weaken. Until the end of the year, the ethanol market continued to be weak, with prices for production companies falling repeatedly.

In the short term, in winter, some enterprises in Northeast China must keep heating and power plants in operation, and overall operation should remain high; Looking at 2025, there are still plans to put devices into the market. From the perspective of production time, they are mostly concentrated in the second half of the year, and with the stable operation of the devices in the early stage, there may be an increasing trend of supply or inventory in the later stage.

Overall, it is expected that the domestic ethanol market will continue to fluctuate within a certain range in 2025, and there may be downward space in the weak demand side, waiting for obvious favorable factors to support it in the market. In the later stage, it is necessary to closely monitor the fluctuations in raw material prices, the operation of on-site equipment, and the follow-up of downstream demand.

Fluorite is the source product of the fluorine chemical industry and also a mineral resource, which is one of the scarce non renewable resources. The National Mineral Resources Plan (2016-2020) includes fluorite in China’s “Strategic Mineral Catalog”, and the “12th Five Year Plan for the Development of China’s Fluorine Chemical Industry” lists fluorite as a “world-class scarce resource similar to rare earths”. China’s fluorite mineral resources play a crucial role in the global fluorite resources. According to the “14th Five Year Plan” for the development of China’s fluorine chemical industry, the fluorite production capacity of various fluorine chemical products in China accounts for 69% of the world’s production capacity, hydrogen fluoride production capacity accounts for 66% of the world’s production capacity, fluorine-containing refrigerants account for 70% of the world’s production capacity, and the total production capacity of the four major fluorine polymers accounts for about 60% of the world’s production and consumption. China has become a major producer and consumer of fluorine chemical products worldwide.

Looking back at the trend of the fluorite market in 2024, the domestic fluorite price has slightly increased, with an average price of 3531.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and 3622.5 yuan/ton at the end of the year, an increase of 2.58%. From the fluorite price trend chart, it can be seen that the highest price of fluorite in 2024 appeared in early June, with a maximum price of 3812.5 yuan/ton. The lowest price of fluorite appeared in mid February, with a minimum price of 3343.75 yuan/ton and a maximum amplitude of 14.02%. Overall, the domestic fluorite trend has slightly increased.

The fluorite market in 2024 is mainly divided into four stages: the first stage is in January, when the price trend of fluorite market declines. Before and after the Spring Festival holiday, there was an increase in the number of enterprises, and hydrofluoric acid enterprises completed stocking. However, the procurement of fluorite decreased significantly. Southern fluorite enterprises supplied normally, but the poor sales situation led to a decline in the fluorite market price trend in January. In the second phase from February to May, the fluorite market continued to rise. During this period, the tight supply of fluorite became the main factor causing price increases. Domestic fluorite enterprises have a low operating rate, and outdated mines will continue to be eliminated. In terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still facing many difficulties. Mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements, and there is a serious shortage of production in fluorite mines. In addition, some areas have experienced mining accidents during this period, resulting in insufficient production of fluorite mines and a shortage of raw materials, leading to a continuous rise in the fluorite market. The third stage is the third quarter, during which the game intensifies and fluorite slightly falls. The downstream refrigerant production is seriously insufficient, and hydrofluoric acid enterprises have serious resistance to high priced fluorite. In addition, the downstream market has not improved. Although fluorite supply is still tight, the trend of fluorite prices has fallen due to downstream drag, basically equaling the previous stage’s increase. The fourth stage has entered the fourth quarter, and the trend of fluorite market has rebounded. One of the important factors supporting the price increase in this stage is still the tight supply of fluorite ore. Another important factor is the favorable support of refrigeration import and export. This stage is affected by the rise of refrigerant market, and the market of hydrofluoric acid products has improved, which in turn helps to boost the trend of fluorite market. Overall, the fluorite market is expected to experience a slight upward trend in 2024.

As one of the scarce non renewable mineral resources, high prices of fluorite may become the norm in 2025, and the fluorite market is prone to rise but difficult to fall.

Firstly, the tight supply of fluorite raw ore is difficult to break

The global distribution of fluorite is relatively concentrated, with Mexico having reserves of 68 million tons, accounting for 26%, China second with reserves of 49 million tons, accounting for 19%, followed by South Africa, Mongolia, and Spain. The top five countries account for a total of 73%, while Japan, South Korea, India, the European Union, and the United States have almost no reserves of fluorite resources, forming a structural scarcity. China’s fluorite energy storage is less than 20% of the world’s total, but its production accounts for about two-thirds of the world’s total. The phenomenon of excessive exploitation of fluorite resources, extensive production, and uncoordinated development of upstream and downstream industries is prominent. In the face of this situation, the country has imposed strict regulations on fluorite minerals, and backward mines will continue to be eliminated. In terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements, and some mines are conducting safety hazard inspections. The high-quality fluorite resources that have been discovered in China are gradually decreasing, and the ability to guarantee resources is gradually decreasing. With the increase in the cost of obtaining mining rights, the development cost of fluorite resources is gradually increasing, and the supply of raw fluorite minerals is difficult to improve. In addition, the continuous increase in fluorite development costs for existing mine technology rectification, safety inspections, etc., the shortage of raw materials and the increase in costs have become the main factors supporting the fluorite market.

Secondly, the import volume of fluorite will increase in 2024

In the early years, China mainly relied on exporting crude products such as fluorite to overseas for precision processing into high value-added products, which then flowed back into the country, resulting in a disguised loss of fluorite resources. With the increasingly strict control of fluorite resources in China’s policies, the export volume of fluorite has been declining while the import volume has increased significantly. According to statistics, the export scale of fluorite in China has been continuously decreasing, while the import volume has increased significantly. In addition, China has lowered the import tax rate for fluorite, which has promoted the import of fluorite related products and played a certain role in raising fluorite prices.

Finally, the demand for new types of fluorite continues to develop

After removing traditional uses, fluorite plays an important role in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials. As an important mineral raw material for modern industry, fluorite is also used in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF、 Graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc., with the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor fields, the long-term prospects of the fluorite industry chain have been supported to some extent.

Negative constraints still exist

There is still a game in the fluorite market, and the traditional demand for refrigerants in the industry is subject to certain restrictions on production. Refrigerants are affected by quotas, and domestic refrigerant product production remains at a low level of about 30%. The utilization rate of production capacity is not high, which affects hydrofluoric acid enterprises from both sides. There is a strong resistance to high priced fluorite, and the poor downstream hydrofluoric acid market may become the biggest constraint on the fluorite market.

In summary, the national policy has strict requirements for the fluorite industry, positioning fluorite as a “strategic mineral resource” with significant scarcity and strategic significance. The policy direction of adopting protective development is becoming increasingly clear, and the requirements for enterprise scale, technology, and environmental protection are increasing. The position and value center of the fluorite industry chain are expected to be further enhanced. The constraints of traditional market conditions are also a major factor affecting the fluorite market, and the long short game is intensifying. It is expected that high fluorite prices will be the norm in 2025, and the overall market situation is prone to rise but difficult to fall. Overall, fluorite prices will remain above 3200 yuan/ton in 2025, and it is expected that the annual fluorite price will be between 3300-4000 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on January 2nd, the reference price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market was 8725 yuan/ton. Compared with the reference price of 8850 yuan/ton on December 29th before the holiday, the price decreased by 125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.41%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that after New Year’s Day, the domestic cyclohexanone market has once again approached a low level, with a weak downward trend. On the eve of the holiday, the cyclohexanone market has been continuously declining for more than half a month, and the focus of market negotiations continues to shift downwards. As the end of the month approaches, the market has stopped falling and stabilized, operating in a consolidating manner. However, after the holiday, the cyclohexanone market fell again, and the stable cost side market provided stable support for cyclohexanone. However, there was no obvious stocking enthusiasm on the downstream demand side, and the demand conversion was also slow. The overall positive support for cyclohexanone is insufficient. As of January 2nd, the domestic cyclohexanone market price reference is around 8700-9000 yuan/ton.

In terms of upstream pure benzene: On January 1st, the reference price of pure benzene was 7234.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.41% compared to December 1st (7338.00).

Market analysis in the future

At present, some downstream users of cyclohexanone have expectations of reduced production, and the overall downstream external procurement is weak. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market will mostly be weak in consolidation and operation, and specific changes in supply and demand need to be closely monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the xylene market saw a slight increase in December 2024. From December 1st to 31st, the domestic xylene market price fell from 5910 yuan/ton to 6110 yuan/ton, with a cumulative price increase of 3.38% during the period.

In the first half of the month, the toluene market fluctuated upwards. In the later part of the week, with the strengthening of crude oil prices, the atmosphere in the spot market improved. Refineries in Shandong region raised their ex factory prices, and downstream companies replenished their inventory according to demand. Some transactions in the market boosted the mentality of the spot market. The inventory of ports in East China continues to decline, and the supply expectations in the spot market are tight. With the support of favorable factors, the mixed xylene market has overall risen this cycle. However, there is a lack of actual demand support in the future, and there is significant resistance to the market’s continued upward trend.

In the second half of the week, the xylene market fluctuated upwards, with refinery inventories in Shandong operating at a low level, and overall ex factory prices rising. The inventory of ports in East China is relatively low this week, and the overall market atmosphere is strong. Traders have a strong reluctance to sell, and the market is holding up prices. But with weak downstream procurement, the downstream’s intention to continue entering the market is slightly lower. Overall, the supply side is boosted by favorable conditions, and the market is generally running strong, but lacks downstream support, resulting in insufficient momentum for the market to continue rising.

Cost wise: The crude oil market has fluctuated and strengthened this month, with prices overall rising during the cycle, driving an improvement in the atmosphere of the spot market. As of December 30th, international crude oil futures have risen, with the settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures at $70.99 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $74.39 per barrel.

Supply side: The quotation of Sinopec xylene enterprise has not changed much. Currently, the enterprise is operating normally, the production of the equipment is stable, and the production and sales are stable. As of December 31st, East China Company quoted 6200 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6050 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6100-6150 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6000 yuan/ton.

Demand side: Weak support for downward demand in the external market for xylene

On December 28th, the price of xylene in the petrochemical sales company remained stable, currently at 7100 yuan/ton. This price is being implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. The operation of facilities such as Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical is stable, and sales are normal. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of December 27th, the closing prices of the Asian xylene market were 795-796 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 820-822 US dollars/ton CFR China.

Market forecast: The recent trend of the crude oil market is volatile, with limited guidance for the spot market. In terms of downstream demand, there is currently insufficient momentum to continue chasing high demand, and the lack of demand support is expected to weaken the xylene market in the future.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 20th, the price of lead 1 # was 17240 yuan/ton, slightly higher than the lead price of 17230 yuan/ton on December 16th, with an increase of 0.06%.

This week’s market analysis

Due to the drop in lead prices last week and the improvement in downstream stocking sentiment, fundamentals may provide some support for lead prices. This week, lead prices have slightly increased within the range.

Supply side

This week, the processing fee for domestic lead concentrate remained the same as last week. The processing fee for imported lead concentrate will be reduced to -25 US dollars per dry ton. In November, the import volume of lead concentrate was 94900 tons, a month on month decrease of 41.96% and a slight year-on-year decrease of 1.56%. From January to November 2024, the cumulative import volume of lead concentrate was 1.144 million tons of metal, a year-on-year increase of 4.22%. The operating rate of primary lead has decreased. In terms of recycled lead, due to air pollution and environmental policies, some recycled lead enterprises have reduced production and the weekly operating rate has decreased.

Demand side

At the end of the year, large lead-acid battery companies increased their operating rates to boost demand, but the consumption in the terminal battery market gradually weakened.

Consumer end

This week, the production of lead-acid battery enterprises was normal, and the weekly operating rate remained at 75.6%, with little change.

Inventory situation

As of the weekend, the total social inventory of lead ingots was 58500 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from December 16th and an increase of 600 tons from December 12th. LME inventory decreased by 8300 tons from last Friday to 252500 tons.

comprehensive analysis

Recycled lead enterprises affected by environmental protection have resumed production one after another, but the production in Shandong region is still limited and difficult to fully release. The production of primary lead smelters has increased, but the market supply is still tight due to the low volume of goods received.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market fluctuated and adjusted weakly in December. The average ex factory price of 1.4D * 38mm in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 7126 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.70% from the beginning of the month.

From a cost perspective, the OPEC+meeting held on December 5th in the crude oil market decided to postpone the crude oil production reduction measures until the end of the first quarter of 2025. As winter approaches in the northern hemisphere, driven by the rising demand for heating oil, global crude oil demand enters the peak season, and EIA commercial crude oil inventories continue to decline. According to EIA forecast data, there will be a global supply gap for crude oil before the end of the first quarter of 2025, with seasonal increases in crude oil demand and a continued decline in inventory, which will drive up oil prices. As of December 27th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.60 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.17 per barrel.

From the end of November to the beginning of December, the PTA operating rate rose to over 90%, reaching the highest level since the beginning of this year. According to statistics, the cumulative production of PTA in China reached 65.06 million tons in the first 11 months, an increase of 7.9 million tons compared to the same period last year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.8%. Entering December, although some facilities have undergone maintenance, they have also been restarted one after another. As of now, the PTA industry’s operating rate is around 86%, which has increased the expectation of loose supply. Moreover, the social inventory is around 4.1 million tons, and PTA will continue to accumulate inventory. In terms of price, the domestic PTA spot market showed a volatile adjustment in December. As of December 27th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 4759 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.38% from the beginning of the month.

On the demand side, as the price of polyester staple fibers slowly declines, some downstream yarn factories have a bottom fishing mentality, but overall demand is poor and the purchasing atmosphere is cautious. The off-season for textile demand continues, and many consider early holidays. Downstream yarn factories have reduced their demand for polyester staple fibers. The terminal weaving factory has a strong sentiment of recovering funds at the end of the year, and winter orders are coming to an end. Although some spring and summer sample orders have been issued recently, the overall order quantity is limited, and there is little positive demand expectation. The operating rate of the weaving machine industry in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has declined to below 67%.

Business analysts believe that PTA’s newly invested facilities are gradually stabilizing, and domestic supply continues to increase. As the Spring Festival approaches, maintenance plans for polyester staple fiber factories are gradually being introduced, and it is expected that supply will shrink, but demand still faces the risk of seasonal decline. Overall, due to limited cost support and weakened supply and demand structure, it is expected that the price of polyester staple fibers will decline.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA spot market showed a fluctuating adjustment in December. As of December 27th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 4767 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.55% from the beginning of the month.

From the end of November to the beginning of December, the PTA operating rate rose to over 90%, reaching the highest level since the beginning of this year. According to statistics, the cumulative production of PTA in China reached 65.06 million tons in the first 11 months, an increase of 7.9 million tons compared to the same period last year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.8%. Entering December, although some facilities have undergone maintenance, they have also been restarted one after another. As of now, the PTA industry’s operating rate is around 86%, which has increased the expectation of loose supply. Moreover, the social inventory is around 4.1 million tons, and PTA will continue to accumulate inventory.

The OPEC+meeting held on December 5th decided to postpone the crude oil production reduction measures until the end of the first quarter of 2025. As winter approaches in the northern hemisphere, driven by the rising demand for heating oil, global crude oil demand enters the peak season, and EIA commercial crude oil inventories continue to decline. According to EIA forecast data, there will be a global supply gap for crude oil before the end of the first quarter of 2025, with seasonal increases in crude oil demand and a continued decline in inventory, which will drive up oil prices. As of December 26th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $69.62 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $73.26 per barrel.

Since December, the downstream polyester production rate has dropped to below 87%, mainly due to the stable production rates of bottle flakes, long fibers, and short fibers. In terms of inventory, both long and short fibers are in a destocking state, and the inventory pressure is not significant. Although the inventory of short fibers is relatively high, the sustainability of destocking is good, which maintains the essential demand for raw material procurement. The terminal weaving factory has a strong sentiment of recovering funds at the end of the year, and winter orders are coming to an end. Although some spring and summer sample orders have been issued recently, the overall order quantity is limited, and there is little positive demand expectation.

Business analysts believe that PTA’s newly invested facilities are gradually stabilizing, and domestic supply continues to increase. The operating rate of weaving machines continues to decline to around 65%, indicating that the operating rate of polyester still faces the risk of seasonal decline. The supply-demand contradiction will further deteriorate, and it is expected that PTA prices will be weakly adjusted.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6660 yuan/ton on December 1st, and 6630 yuan/ton on December 26th. The price of thermal phosphoric acid in China has dropped by 0.45% this month.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6983 yuan/ton on December 1st, and 6983 yuan/ton on December 26th. The price of wet process phosphoric acid in China has remained stable this month.

2、 Market analysis

In the first half of December, the price of hot process phosphoric acid rose slightly and then remained stable, while the price of wet process phosphoric acid remained stable. The supply and demand of the phosphoric acid market are balanced, with no significant fluctuations at present. Downstream on-demand procurement leads to a sluggish market transaction atmosphere. In the second half of December, the price of hot process phosphoric acid fell weakly, while the price of wet process phosphoric acid fluctuated slightly. The raw material yellow phosphorus market has weakened, cost support has weakened, and the price of thermal phosphoric acid has been lowered. Supported by downstream demand, the wet process phosphoric acid market remains strong. As of December 26th, the ex factory price of 85 thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6600-6850 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan region it is around 6400-6700 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85 wet process phosphoric acid is around 6900-7150 yuan/ton.

Raw material yellow phosphorus market. This month, the market price of yellow phosphorus has weakened and fallen. Downstream procurement is cautious, resulting in a decrease in new orders in the market. This month, the operating rate of yellow phosphorus has declined, and the market supply has decreased. At the end of the month, the market stopped falling and rose. Expected short-term consolidation of domestic yellow phosphorus prices.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s phosphate analyst believes that the phosphate market has been running steadily in recent days. At present, the raw material yellow phosphorus market is pushing up, but the upward space is limited. The phosphoric acid market is mainly wait-and-see, with flat market trading. It is expected that the domestic phosphoric acid market will stabilize and operate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from December 18th to 25th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2625 yuan/ton to 2740 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.38% during the period, a month on month increase of 7.03%, and a year-on-year increase of 10.67%. The domestic methanol market continues to rise, with some areas experiencing rainy and snowy weather, leading to an increase in shipping costs. Due to the expected reduction in imported supply and the anticipated shutdown of the Southwest Gas Head Methanol Plant, there is a expectation for a decrease in port replenishment and inventory. In addition, the port methanol inventory has entered the destocking channel, and the market has a strong willingness to hold onto the goods. As a result, the port methanol price continues to rise.

As of the close on December 25th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2501, opened at 2662 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2683 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2642 yuan/ton. It closed at 2653 yuan/ton in the closing session, up 12 yuan/ton from the previous trading day’s settlement, with an increase of 0.45%. The trading volume was 927774 lots, and the position was 866142 lots, with a daily increase of -2871.

In terms of cost, most coal mines in the current region are operating normally, and the overall coal supply level remains stable. It is difficult for terminals to release large-scale demand, and the current market performance is poor. Some coal mines have low online bidding premiums, and there are still unsold sections, resulting in a relatively sluggish trading atmosphere. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.

On the demand side, downstream MTBE: MTBE demand is increasing; Downstream acetic acid: Increased demand for acetic acid; Downstream chloride: The demand for chloride does not fluctuate significantly; Downstream formaldehyde: There is currently no plan to shut down the formaldehyde plant, but attention should be paid to environmental warning situations in various regions; Downstream dimethyl ether: There is currently no plan to shut down the dimethyl ether plant, and demand fluctuations are not significant. The majority of downstream demand for methanol has increased, influenced by favorable factors on the methanol demand side.

On the supply side, the overall device loss exceeds the recovery amount, and the capacity utilization rate decreases. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.

In terms of external markets, as of the close of December 24th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 346.00-347.00 US dollars per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 123.50-124.50 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 438.00-439.00 euros/ton.

The future forecast shows that the supply of goods will continue to be abundant, and there will be little change in traditional downstream demand. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly experience range fluctuations.